Destiny Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[nico115] 09/3/2022 11:00

I bought some at 50p as wellGreat risk reward here

[timbo003] 09/3/2022 09:47

I applied for an allocation in the placing and was scaled back to 55% of the application.

I first heard about the placing about 2.5 weeks ago, the first indicative price was 65p, which then dropped to 60p last week, but I was astonished to see the final price at 50p.

I suspect the open offer will be over subscribed, but alas, I might have to duck that as I note that the OO shares will not be EIS qualifying, which means if I apply it might mess up the EIS status of the placing shares ☹️

[edmonda] 09/3/2022 08:03

Also comment out from Equity Development : the fundraising at 50p/share includes an Open Offer that could raise up to £7.0m for @DestinyPharma . Use is for its 2 lead assets and to strengthen negotiating position with potential partners.

New note out here, pending raise closure:

[sev22] 09/3/2022 07:54

Morning note from House Broker finnCap Group (full write up at finncap.com):

DESTINY PHARMA (DEST): CORP Placing raises £6m with Open Offer up to £1m.

Destiny Pharma has raised £6m with up to £1m possible via an Open Offer to progress its two lead assets towards the start of Phase 3 clinical studies and advance commercial partnership discussions. These funds are expected to take the company to key value inflection points (e.g. a partnering deal for the Phase 3 study and commercialisation of NTCD-M3 and progression of XF-73 to a point where we have final clarification from the FDA/EMA as to Phase 3 study design), which is considered a requisite for completing any partnership deal. Both milestones are expected to be reached during 2022. We introduce forecasts for FY 2022, which indicate a net loss of £8.4m. Based on the sum-of-the-parts risk-adjusted NPV and reflecting the share dilution, we reduce our target price to 306p, which leaves substantial upside from the key value inflection points expected in 2022.

[ttlance] 08/3/2022 15:40

The market is certainly there with the real possibility of getting these 2 assets through, especially with the excellent phase 2 results. I'm starting to question Neil Clarks credibility however as it's difficult to take details in the RNS's and his interviews at face value.

[gb904150] 08/3/2022 15:24

It could be that the potential partners negotiating position is much stronger if DEST are short on time and funds.

Or that the commercials aren't as compelling....but previous presentations suggest they are.

The global importance of AMR suggests they are.

e..g from DEST slides (Feb 2021 presentation).

- cost of complications due to post surgical infections approx $10bn.
- XF-73 target market peak US sales opp $1bn

Mupirocin effectiveness is waning. Not effective on all strains, encourages AMR build up, is an irritant....etc....

C-difficle:
29,000 USA deaths a year
$6bn healthcare burden.
$500m NTCD-M3 peak sales opportunity, of which $200m in USA.

But DEST have slipped on their timeline now....so it depends on what they are now going to achieve.

[ttlance] 08/3/2022 15:14

Any ideas as to why potential partners haven't been forthcoming with committing to a partnership? The only thing I can think of is, the partners are coming to the conclusion that the commercials don't stack up against the risk?

[gb904150] 08/3/2022 14:57

I think you're right. It should have been straightforward and quick to find partners given the success of the Phase 2b trials and the economic backdrop (cheap money, long duration, buoyant biotech) and DEST seemed optimistic that was the case.

Add to that the scandalous situation with things like the where governments, health policy leads, scientists and so on jawbone about the importance of tackling anti microbial resistance, but when it comes to actually doing anything....diddly squat.

That fund was supposed to be making its first investments in Q3 2020. With promises to 'invest more than US$1 billion'.

For all the big talk of the dangers AMR presents to the human race there is surprisingly little done about it.....or at least to fund something being done about it.

The AMR action fund should be ashamed at their lack of progress.

As to the RNS....I think DEST have acknowledged for a while now that NTCD-M3 is the further along and more likely to progress first.

I don't know why that is. It seemed to me like more progress was being made with XF-73 before NTCD-M3 even got acquired. It's not entirely clear why they pivoted but it has not been beneficial to shareholders.

Originally the acquisition of NTCD-M3 seemed to be to reduce risk - have 2 products at the stage of looking for phase 3 partners. But why should it have been to the detriment of XF-73 when AMR is such a global topic?

My thoughts are that XF-73 got put on the backburner in anticipation of securing funding from the AMR action fund. Yet 2 years later, the fund appears to have achieved nothing and we are still waiting.

In short....in my opinion, the AMR action fund has led to significantly less action on fighting AMR.

[ttlance] 08/3/2022 13:39

GB - Totally agree. What's making me think they didn't do the fundraising earlier was that they were too optimistic with finding partnerships. As time has gone by it's clear that they have been having difficulty finding a suitable partnership.

Anyone read the RNS? to me it reads that they are just looking for a partnership now for just the NTCD-M3 asset?

[gb904150] 08/3/2022 13:25

I'd say this was spectacularly poor timing by the BOD. The dilution could have been much less.

The time to raise funds was last year in a strong pharma/biotech environment when with a 150p share price there was excitement around finding partners for phase 3 for XF-73 and NTCD-M3.

Instead they held out for as long as possible leading to being low on funds and having to raise in a terrible market.

£7m would have been a small fundraise in a position of strength and with minimal dilution at that point.

I think DEST has great prospects and a great team but this was really badly handled. Bill Love has a big stake at about 10%. Perhaps the board should hold a bit more too so they keep aligned with shareholders.

[sicilian_kan] 08/3/2022 13:15

The dilution is nothing in the grand scheme of things (18%) given the gross undervalue here. It's out of the way and even post placing there will only be 74,380,367 shares in issue even if all the open offer shares are taken up. That is £37m for two phase 3 projects with £6.6m extra in the bank in addition to what they had left. This should be a great entry price for anyone looking to invest. Personally, I think the company is worth more with the cash in the bank and within 3-6 months we will be looking back at this as the best time to top up or buy.

[74tom] 08/3/2022 13:13

Sad to see. Caught between a rock and hard place & made the right decision, however they need a partner for either P3 ASAP.

[gbjbaanb] 08/3/2022 13:09

50p ffs, you have to question these companies that they don't fundraise when the share price was high and sentiment was good. Or did they just not know their own business would need something like this within the year.

[gaiusgracchus] 08/3/2022 13:07

Ugh. Fundraise at 50

[andymunchkin] 04/3/2022 19:17

ALBANYVILLAS2 Nov '17 - 10:41 - 21 of 726
0 0 0
Nice to see the 330p price target from broker
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thEsE bRokeRs noTToBe TrusTed

[sicilian_kan] 22/2/2022 11:39

It is not that the P3 trial structure uncertainty puts off partners, rather that Destiny will not get the best terms without having the certainty of P3 trial structure being approved. Now that the EMA has approved the P3 trial structure (and earlier than I had expected), we now just await the FDA approval. However, it is likely to be on similar terms to the EMA and there really is not very long to wait now. Also, there is absolutely no need to raise funds at this point.

[ttlance] 22/2/2022 11:06

Sev22 - What's causing this gradual decline is 2 main factors: 1) The company doesn't have enough cash to fund daily operations so are going to need to raise funds via issuing shares. 2) The expectation was Destiny will have had a partnership in Q4 2021 for both assets; prior to this Neil Clarke repeatedly communicated that partnerships were making good progress. They have now had to get the structures of the phase 3 trials confirmed which will determine the cost of these trials, this uncertainty was obviously putting partners off. I don't see a partnership happening now until 3 months after the FDA and EMA have confirmed these, so now looking at Q3 2022 (just for 1 asset, the other asset is looking at a partnership in 2023). Looking back the signs were there when Dr Love sold £420k worth of shares in June 2021 and Philip Rogers bought a poultry £2516 worth of shares in September 2021. Very disappointed in the way this has been handled and communicated to shareholders especially as Neil Clarke with all his experience should have known that partners will have wanted clarity on what format the phase 3 trials will take. I'm staying invested as I still see potential for these 2 assets but this miss management certainly doesn't bring confidence to shareholders.

[sev22] 21/2/2022 18:48

Like every other investor I am finding it very frustrating to see the share price marked down almost daily on very little volume, but once we have a clear and positive way forward with Destiny's other lead product NTCD-M3 this should lead to a substantial re-rating in the stock, regardless of what's going on in Russia.

Destiny said only a few weeks ago that they were making good progress in discussions with potential licensing partners for NTCD-M3, with several potential partners active in the data room. This is in line with the company's stated strategy of seeking partners to help co-fund the required Phase 3 trials and lead the commercialisation. Surely news must be due imminently.

[sicilian_kan] 21/2/2022 17:47

Bit of read over in the sector from the Synaigen disappointing results. Destiny however is in a different position.

Destiny has stellar trial results proving efficacy: ">99% nasal bacterial load reduction (p<0.0001)" for XF-73.

Destiny investors are not therefore taking a punt on the trial results being good (they already are). The cliff edge Synairgen had is just not here at the moment.

All that is required for the next leg up is to replicate the recently successful EMA P3 trial approval at the FDA and then with data like Destiny's they should get a partner to fund P3. In my view, it is just a matter of time.

[barony] 21/2/2022 17:35

Bit sad that, but I get your point.

[gbjbaanb] 21/2/2022 16:53

Nothing will galen until money comes back into the stock market, right now dest could announce they've cited cancer, the common cold, hair loss and weight gain and the share price would barely move.

Wait until after Ukraine is a smouldering crater and then the money will start to return.

[barony] 21/2/2022 12:27

This drift down and down seems overdone in my ho. Maybe a bit of pr from the company would help as there is nothing bad happening, as fas I know? We are just waiting for trials and potential partners.