Dekel Agri-vision Share Discussion Threads

[chadders] 16/11/2020 15:50

Maybe something to do with this from the lse DKL thread...


No surprise that LM is becoming more and more bullish and it certainly bodes well.

[chadders] 16/11/2020 15:36

Agreed here and there, a welcome tick up this afternoon mind you.

[here and there] 16/11/2020 15:19

Stunned that the market has no interest in this bargain....it's all about maths and the maths is good and will get better and better

[outlawinvestor] 13/11/2020 08:54

Outlook snippet from AEP's trading update:

CPO prices are expected to be strong for the remaining part of the year due to anticipated supply shortage because of the moderate La Nina weather phenomenon and the surge in the price of soyabean oil, a competing peer. However, there are rising concerns of a second and third wave of coronavirus pandemic in key importing countries which may affect market demand for palm oil.

[chadders] 13/11/2020 08:52

Well the upward trend continues..$865 a tonne.

[rightnellie] 12/11/2020 10:39

2.1 million sold in the last 2 days but I am keeping the faith and bought another 130k today to add to mine. Patience is a virtue! Everything comes to those who wait and I am happy to hold on until Summer 2021. By that time all the good news will be out there and factual imo.

[rivaldo] 12/11/2020 09:21

The last two peaks were for just a month or so each - whereas the high prices in 2014 had been around for some years. I suspect the current high prices may be sustained for at least much of the upcoming high season.

The major shareholder list here is actually already pretty impressive, including the likes of Miton, AgDevco, Biopalm Energy (part of the huge Siva Group) - but yes, it'll probably be PI interest which drives the share price initially over the coming months:

Key Shareholders

Name Number of Ordinary Shares Percentage of Enlarged Share Capital
Youval Rasin 67,346,705 15.89
Miton Group Plc 50,147,629 11.83
AgDevco Ltd 41,188,990 9.72
Biopalm Energy Ltd 35,455,111 8.36
Yossi Inbar 15,825,548 3.73
Shai Kol 27,581,861 6.51*
Aristide Achy Brou 21,300,000 4.75
Lincoln Moore 4,949,791 1.17

[outlawinvestor] 12/11/2020 09:13

You beat me to it rivaldo! According to PalmOilAnalytics, CPO closed @ $855 yesterday (11-Nov) and PKO closed at $1040. DKL is on course for a strong Q4.

In addition, the political situation in Cote d'Ivoire following the elections appear to be improving following talks between Ouattarra and Bedie.

(CPO)
(PKO)
(BBC News)

[tradertrev] 12/11/2020 09:07

I love it when things are the highest they've been except for the times when they were higher - sorry, couldn't resist :-)
Unfortunately with a mkt cap of £11m it's extremely difficult to get any IIs involved here. Suspect any hint of II interest and the shares would at least double.

[rivaldo] 12/11/2020 09:00

The CPO price is up again to $838 - if you exclude very brief peaks in Jan'20 and Jan'17, that's the highest since July 2014.....

[chadders] 11/11/2020 11:32

Thanks for that OutlawInvestor, very interesting. Same end product but all very different stories of course.

[outlawinvestor] 11/11/2020 10:39

It's not the most exciting of sectors, and there is IMO an Africa discount always on offer. That said, hard to believe as it may be, over the last 12 months DKL's share price has performed much better than peers with CPO exposure.



Obviously scant consolation for LTHs and many others heavily underwater at the moment. And definitely not a great performer when viewed over a 5 year period!

[chadders] 11/11/2020 09:56

I must admit I find it baffling why there is so much market apathy towards the company.

[rivaldo] 11/11/2020 09:00

Agreed, the published spread should always be ignored as the true spread is usually so much better.

Arden have updated as follows, confirming their Buy and 7.6p target price (nothing particularly price-sensitive, but a good summary so I've pasted it in full):

"Dekel Agri-Vision has announced a positive set of palm oil production figures for October 2020. Fresh fruit bunches processed were up 15% in Oct 2020 at 9,350MT, compared with 8,118MT in Oct 2019. CPO production was up 19% at 1,818MT, compared with 1,528MT in Oct 2019, benefitting from higher extraction rates than in October last year. CPO sales in October 2020 were up 40% to 1,843MT, from 1,319MT in Oct 2019. The average CPO price for Oct 2020 was €636/MT, 28% higher than October 2019, when the CPO price was just €495/MT.

PKO production was 14% lower at 129MT in October 2020 compared to 150MT in 2019, reflecting lower kernel purchases from other mills in the area, as a result of weak PKO prices. PKO sales were 251MT in October 2020 at an average price of €564/MT. (There were no PKO sales in October 2019). PKC production was 23% lower at 196MT in October 2020. Sales were 83% lower than in Oct 2019 at 47MT, whilst the average PKC price was up 5% at €61/MT in Oct 2020, compared to Oct 2019.

The crude palm oil (CPO) price has continued to climb over the past few weeks. The average CPO price has jumped 5% in October 2020, compared with last month. This strong pricing performance has been as a result of restocking by key buying nations in Asia, such as China and Malaysia. Malaysia is now moving into its low production season. The current palm oil price is trading at US$825/MT (€698/MT). Dekel Agri-Vision’s management is cautiously optimistic that, despite the ongoing global pandemic, this supportive pricing environment will persist into the months ahead. This could provide supportive trading conditions for the Company, when it enters its upcoming peak harvesting season in Cote d’Ivoire, which runs from January to June.We are not currently making any changes to our forecasts.

On the basis of our sum of parts valuation we value the company at 7.6p per share, equivalent a market capitalisation of £32.2m. This compares with the current share price of 2.4p and a market cap of £10.2m. We maintan our Buy recommendation."

[outlawinvestor] 11/11/2020 08:02

@2vdm - the actual trading spread is thinner... I think MMs know too well that this share attracts people looking for a quick 0.1p gain hence the wide advertised spreads.

I was surprised the bid held yesterday, maybe the quick gainers have decided to hang on for the next 0.1p!

[2vdm] 11/11/2020 07:26

Doesn't help with a 14% spread between bid/offer for new investors. Nursing a healthy loss here and would like to buy more

[outlawinvestor] 10/11/2020 19:46

bet it gets revised upwards by the end of the year

Or in 3 or so weeks once the additional 14.2% stake transaction completes.
Or maybe when the debt refinancing is completed towards the new year.

[here and there] 10/11/2020 18:45

Extraordinarily under valued.Stunned at the MC, look at the numbers, look at the fully funded Cashew business coming on stream next year. Nick Walker, who is a brilliant analyst has a 7.6p target on the stock, bet it gets revised upwards by the end of the year.

[chadders] 10/11/2020 15:13

$835 a tonne now.

[rivaldo] 10/11/2020 14:57

Moving up on every buy now.

[chadders] 10/11/2020 07:54

Excellent results and the CPO price rising trend bodes well as we inch ever closer to the high season.

[pugugly] 10/11/2020 07:43

"keep the Company on track to post a material second half improvement compared to H2 2019"

If this pace of improvement keeps up Looks as though I may have to move DKL to longterm (profitable) portfolio from short term speculative. Should be a good day - but Mr Market may determine otherwise!!

[rivaldo] 10/11/2020 07:20

October's production update shows things going rather well, with 19% and 28% increases in CPO production and sale prices achieved respectively. These high CPO prices will soon benefit high season production from mid-January given the 6 to 8 week delay in them impacting local pricing.....

[outlawinvestor] 09/11/2020 13:05

Covid vaccine: First 'milestone' vaccine offers 90% protection



Positive vaccine news is boosting energy prices, should lift biodiesel prices and add further strength to CPO prices.