Dekel Agri-vision Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 16/11/2023 08:27

Looks like someone dumped 580,000 shares at 1.935p, which in an illiquid stock like DKL may account for the price weakness in recent days whilst the MMs attempted to get rid of the stock?

Which is ironic, since the CPO price has been on an upwards tear this week - it's increased to $955 as of Tuesday, up from $875 at the end of October.

Hopefully giving DKL a double whammy of rising CPO production and higher prices for November.

[royalalbert] 14/11/2023 12:57

Market Cap at present seems to not include anything for cashews, once sorted material improvement in share price.

[xow98] 14/11/2023 12:44

Dekel Agri-Vision
@DekelAgriVision
·
42m
Early guidance for November 2023 shows CPO production is likely to be materially higher than November last year as we appear to be experiencing another uplift in production over the past 10 days.

[2magpies] 10/11/2023 09:43

Mortlolc

Best not to hold one's breath, as it were.

Take everything they say with a pinch of salt, I think.

When prices are high, they have nothing to sell.

When they have lots of feedstock, the machinery won't work.

When they order new machinery, it is delayed.

When they take delivery of machinery, there are parts missing (or unsuitable).

When prices start to slip, they begin producing more.

Do they actually even know what they are even doing?

Or, far more to the point: what is the aim -- why are they in this game at all?

Just look at the share price chart: says it all, does it not? Mr. Market has had enough of 'jam tomorrow'!

I wouldn't be at all surprised if there is, yet another, fundraise.

[rivaldo] 10/11/2023 09:43

WH Ireland's note last month forecast €4.7m EBITDA this year, up from €2.7m last year.

After interest on the debt this translates to €0.7m PBT, which is forecast to rise to €1.5m PBT next year. This against the £12.6m m/cap.

Of course PBT is being held back this year by cashew development costs, so the core CPO business is actually much more profitable.

So the answer is yes, DKL are making profits. There's no capacity for dividends yet since cashew development and debt repayment are far more important.

The problems are obvious as regards (1) the delays re the cashew ramp up and (2) CPO pricing and production volatility, which cashews should help even out as they're year round.

Nevertheless, if and when cashews finally take off - which seems imminent - then the current share price should prove to be extremely cheap.

[mortlolc] 10/11/2023 09:21

Agree with you TT, It's now all about the Cashew line, until they start releasing data on a monthly basis to show the line is running problem free and cash positive, then the share price is going to stay where it is, or go lower. The management team have burnt through most people's patience and belief in their ability to get things done.

[2magpies] 10/11/2023 09:17

tradertrev

Are they making profit?

This is a stock thet ought to have been paying out dividends by now.

Dragging it out? I should say!

Seems like the 'prequel' is going to be longer than the main feature.

[royalalbert] 10/11/2023 09:15

Cashews will get there, granted it's been a long road though.

[tradertrev] 10/11/2023 09:10

2magpies - er...they are!
Cashews are a different story of course.

[2magpies] 10/11/2023 09:04

rivaldo

Yes, to all that, but note that, yet again, 'it'll be better tomorrow' is what we are being told.

Always amazing, and always tomorrow.

By now they ought to have been, well and truly, producing, selling, making money.

[rivaldo] 10/11/2023 07:21

A mixed update for October CPO with production and processing up nicely and sales and prices down.

However, November production "is likely to be materially higher" than last year so is looking good.

And the closing outlook is promising:

"Lincoln Moore, Dekel 's Executive Director , said: "With two months left in 2023 and a strong start to November, the Palm Oil Operation remains well on track to exceed CPO production, Revenue and EBITDA compared to 2022 and we look forward to reporting a strong finish to the year."

[harry the haddock] 24/10/2023 08:58

2023 Palm Oil Production

🌴FFB processed (tonnes) 114,745

🌴CPO production (tonnes) 25,166

🌴CPO sales (tonnes) 20,758

🌴Average CPO price/tonne €934

🌴PKO Sales (tonnes) 515 latest tweet. How does that compare to last month and/or last year?

[flaart] 11/10/2023 14:16

6p is coming

[royalalbert] 11/10/2023 13:40

Paying down debt is always a priority in my eyes, but good to hear from the horses mouth. Is this the bottom? would dearly love to think so.

[mortlolc] 11/10/2023 13:31

They do seem upbeat on Cashews from next year once new machines are up & running - although I'd like them to start with monthly cashew figures from next month rather than Dec/Jan , at least the improvement or not would be transparent. I was happy to hear Lincoln re-iterate that they see paying down debt as a priority once the Cashew line turns cash positive.

[tradertrev] 11/10/2023 13:16

Thought they gave a reasonable account of themselves on the IMC presentation just now. Quite reassuring on cashew processing progress, even if we're nowhere near where we hoped to be.

[2magpies] 10/10/2023 10:02

"Whilst we have seen improvements in daily processing levels, the performance of various items of equipment provided by our Italian supplier remain below technical specifications, most notably the peeling and shelling machinery. We have taken further actions to supplement the Italian equipment including ordering additional shelling machines from an external party which are expected to be installed in November 2023."

Always 1) some glitch or another- poor weather, soft market, low volume, delay in delivery, and..

2) something or another is expected to be done/installed in the future (and btw, there will be a trial period to see if the stuff actually works).

So, there we have it: always in the future.

[rivaldo] 10/10/2023 09:39

Yes, I flagged the WH Ireland forecast changes here last month. DKL must have a serious case against the Italian manufacturers re the faulty shelling machines.

They today retain their 9.5p fair value target price.

Their forecasts are for €38.5m revenues this year (up from €31.2m last year).

EBITDA is set to rise to €4.7m this year (from last year's €2.7m) and then €5m next year. The latter equates to €1.5m PBT and €0.2 EPS.

They conclude:

"Forecasts / Valuation

Having recently adjusted our forecasts to account for lower cashew production in FY23E and FY24E, today’s update on the cashew project is in line with our updated expectations and we leave our forecasts unchanged this morning. Although DKL may not see the full benefit in FY24E, the cashew operation, once at full production, will add a step change in profitability and cash generation for the group. With proactive steps being taken to bring this project to its full potential, we see our 9.5p fair value as well underpinned."

[redy123] 10/10/2023 08:22

with regard to the Cashew Operation. This is no stutter. I believe the company is at least a year behind now in its profit forecasts as our company broker has substancially downgraded profit forecssts for this year and next year due to the faulty Shelling machines. An investigation needs to be casrried out.Why does it take 9 months to realise you have equipment that is not fit for purpose. Abd who is going to absorb the costs of replacements?

However good news with regard to the Palm Oil Operation and still looking forward to our Cashew Operation eventually coming uo to sppeed

[royalalbert] 10/10/2023 07:42

Q3/22 rev CPO $3547362, PKO $636608, total $4183970.

Q3/23 rev CPO $8286831, PKO $1145529, total $9432360.

I'm happy with that, cashews slowly getting there.

[jpuff] 10/10/2023 07:39

Trouble is the share price doesn't budge up, so what's wrong here?

[rivaldo] 10/10/2023 07:28

The September CPO production update is excellent, with CPO sales up 154% and PKO sales up 98% on last year.

This is set to hugely outweigh the year on year CPO price decrease and slightly lower extraction rates.

In summary, H2 is set to "materially outperform" last year.

Cashew production in Q3 is up 134.5% on Q2 this year, but as usual there are glitches in the Italian machinery's performance which DKL are having to work around - I hope the manufacturers are going to compensate DKL in some way. Cashews are getting there, just with some stuttering.

[rivaldo] 28/9/2023 11:04

Agreed! However....the cashew operation is a stable product, with no seasonality, likely much less volatile pricing than CPO, increasing demand globally and no sustainability issues.

If this is brought up to full capacity in the next few months as suggested, then DKL's prospects should be transformed and perceptions upgraded.

Meanwhile, WH Ireland have (somewhat late in the day given that the cashew equipment supply issues have been known for months!) pushed their cashew production forecasts to the right.

They retain their 9.5p target price, and now forecast a net €0.7m PBT this year, rising to €1.5m next year.

[2magpies] 28/9/2023 09:18

rivaldo

The thing is, though, this Company has been living off a 'it'll be wonderful in the future' mantra for several years now.

Great prospects, but somehow it's always ..... always, just out of reach!

[rivaldo] 28/9/2023 07:28

H1 results are out.

DKL made €1.5m PAT in H1 on CPO operations. I calculate on a quick look that H1's additional closing inventories over last year would have brought in around another €4.8m of sales, bring in another €800k of gross margin and taking PAT reasonably close to last year's €2.5m H1 PAT.

The start-up cashew operations burnt through €1.1m in H1, but profitability is anticipated for this Q4 - which starts in 3 days' time. With a possible €35m revenues per annum there's all to play for.