Dekel Agri-vision Share Discussion Threads

[royalalbert] 12/6/2023 16:00

Disappointing price today, perhaps once cashew production is shown to be growing next month people will take more notice.

[rivaldo] 12/6/2023 15:44

That's small caps for you - under-researched and therefore mispriced.

But an opportunity for those who do their own research.

[harry the haddock] 12/6/2023 14:54

You got to love the market, superb figures, but share price back to where it started before the news!

[rivaldo] 12/6/2023 09:14

WH Ireland have retained their 9.5p fair value share price.

They forecast €3.2m PBT this year, rising to €6.0m PBT next year. That's 0.5c EPS rising to 0.9c EPS, or 0.43p EPS rising to 0.78p EPS.

Which is a current year P/E of 8.4 falling to just 4.6 at 3.6p.

They note that "average prices of €953/tonne achieved in May......remain well above our forecast assumptions of €900/tonne".

And "in the 5 years prior to 2021, average prices achieved by DKL were on average ca. €578/tonne".

[here and there] 12/6/2023 07:49

What a great set of numbers. Heading for a record H1 by the looks of things.

Cashews ramping up will add more revs and profits year on year.

[rivaldo] 12/6/2023 07:25

Another excellent monthly CPO update, you can't ask for more than that.

CPO production was a record high for May, and H1 CPO production will b ematerially higher than last year's. Similarly for PKO production.

Even having softened slightly recently, current CPO prices at $953 are not far from last year's H1 average of $1,013.

Extraction rates are also continuing to improve.

So this H1 will likely see a rather nice advance on last year's $4.2m EBITDA and $2.5m PAT in H1.....

[rimau1] 12/6/2023 07:24

Excellent news, May production and prices look really strong and for me the important comparative continues to be versus 2021 and the growth 2023 v 2021 is c.30% across all metrics. DKL IMO is de—risked now for a strong 2023. Noting the softening of prices in May 2021 they were €770ish so relative strength continues.

[chadders] 09/6/2023 08:06

Interesting to see any trading pattern today in advance of the May update. It's been very quiet for a number of days now, which is a bit surprising given the apparent turn around.

[tradertrev] 23/5/2023 08:18

However this article says the April '23 export price of cashews in Vietnam was $5.94/kg. Don't know why the big difference, beyond shipping cost of course:

[tradertrev] 23/5/2023 08:12

Article on European wholesale prices for cashew nut kernels:

Currently $11.41 /kg
Get your calculators out!

[2magpies] 12/5/2023 10:38

Well, a £5m EBITDA would be a very good outcome indeed!

[rivaldo] 12/5/2023 08:55

Cheers. Nice quotes:

- cashews have "huge upside from here" with steady increases in production
- plus cpo looks good for May and June, boosted by good CPO pricing
- above all, great to hear confirmation that DKL are "tracking nicely" towards forecasts of €42m revenues and €7m EBITDA this year

[ga_dti] 12/5/2023 08:30

Latest interview with Lincoln Moore discussing the April production update -

[rivaldo] 10/5/2023 14:56

For the chartists out there, Zak Mir today targets 6.5p by the end of next month (from 5m 32s in):

[chadders] 10/5/2023 08:44

Who knows the tricks the mms get up to. What is clear is that DKL has been significantly derisked and fair value should return.

[rivaldo] 10/5/2023 08:33

WH Ireland have retained their 9.5p price target, and their forecasts of 0.5c EPS this year rising to 0.9c EPS next year.

They conclude:

"Exceptional update, fair value reaffirmed

Today’s update marks a meaningful turning point for DKL. With the disappointing harvest in FY2022 now behind them, the company has reported a stellar set of production figures for April, combining exceptional volumes with very strong pricing. While it remains too early to draw final conclusions on full year production for FY2023, we see today’s news as encouraging and supportive of our forecasts for the current year. On this basis, we see the current single digit forward ratings as presenting an investment opportunity, and retain our 9.5p fair value assessment (based on DCF and relatives)".

They also note as regards cashews:

"Inaugural cashew update reflects capacity improvements

While today’s announcement focused on the palm oil business, we note the company’s recent update on production from its recently commissioned cashew plant. With production rates at the plant improving, and starting to approach the company’s target capacity in Q2, the outlook for the cashew plant is on track for a meaningful and cash-generative contribution from the cashew project in the full year. Once in full operation, we expect the project to contribute over €12m of revenues in FY24, with potential for further growth with strategic expansion."

[pugugly] 10/5/2023 08:33

After initial enthusiasm share price dropping back fast. Could there be a large sell (delayed mark ?) being worked? If so why?

[2magpies] 10/5/2023 08:14

Excellent.

Seems like 'tomorrow' may, at last, have begun to arrive!

That was a very long wait.

[chadders] 10/5/2023 08:08

Omg much better than I expected, a surprise to the upside! Now we have turned the corner. It'll be interesting to see ehat WHI make of it...

[hastings] 10/5/2023 07:42

Well, you'd expect the share price to reflect the news today!

[royalalbert] 10/5/2023 07:38

R1 your last sentence is important, more than happy at present.

[rimau1] 10/5/2023 07:32

Excellent news, as you say Riv this is de-risked now and should re-rate back to historic levels. They should have included a 2021 comparative too as we all know 2022 was a dead year so comparisons are not meaningful. For reference our production is circa 20% higher than Apr 2021 so another gold star for DKL.

[rivaldo] 10/5/2023 07:18

Here we go....

A terrific April trading statement this morning, with an "exceptional" performance and a "standout' monthly financial outcome".

Plus there's "continued strength in early May, compared to May last year".

And "These positive trends bode well for the Palm Oil Operation, positioning it to achieve an excellent period of production and financial performance throughout the second quarter of 2023."

Hopefully back to 5p-6p soon, and crossed fingers the good news from cashews will also continue.

[mr doughnut1] 10/5/2023 07:17

I'll take that. May sounds ok as well