Debenhams Share Discussion Threads

[justiceforthemany] 15/11/2017 20:58

You also need to be very careful of posting misleading, highly defamatory and libellous comments. Copy and paste is a great tool...

[justiceforthemany] 15/11/2017 20:55

You are clearly a paid deramper/shorter and ignore fundamentals such as P/E that are the very basis of investing.

[simon templar qc] 15/11/2017 19:28

justiecformany

You don't get it do you, the retail environment is in a terrible state. Retailers are on a knife edge and some will be pushed over the edge.

The short sellers are there because they are envisaging the company will see liquidity problems.

This is a very serious matter and you need to come to terms with the reality of the situation, you are in denial.

I do not want you to lose all your investments you need to seek professional advice and not rely on other posters misleading you.

edmundshaw

You cannot see the wood for the trees, WG have warned they are being hit by a consumer downturn the public are not doing any decorating, That means no need to buy other furnishings all of which Debenhams rely upon.

You also need to seek professional advice before you lose any more of your investments.

Stop listening to other posters who are vent on pumping a punctured tyre, its a waste of time.

[edmundshaw] 15/11/2017 19:10

Well Walter Greenbank was on a PER of around 16. Obviously continued growth is priced into that rating (which is why I haven't owned the shares for some years). Being rocked back to a PER of 12 (possibly higher if results are poor enough) they are still double the rating of Debenhams. And with a far more niche customer base, the potential volatility is likely to be higher.

WGB also sells into a space that is only a fraction of Debenhams business, so read-across is going to be tentative. Also, I notice that FY profits are going to be off by 10%. They are not exactly about to fold. Nor is Debenhams in spite of all the silly insinuations on this board.

[justiceforthemany] 15/11/2017 18:17

Why do people keep banging on about the dividend being cut? Companies do not cut dividends when they are twice covered by earnings! Most barely have 1x cover. Yield now of 8.8% and the final one alone next month >6%. The only anomaly here is the low share price To repeat the true and fair share price here is around 60p which would give a more sensible P/E of 10 and a yield of 5.7%.

[simon templar qc] 15/11/2017 16:49

itcm1

Employment?

Do me a favour in work fallen look at todays news not to mention wages not rising as fast as inflation.

Those are the stark facts!

Solid cash flow?

How do you know? The results announcement was post year end, the company would have to stock up for Christmas you have no idea what the position is now.

On other matters Walker Greenbank fell 28.5% on close.

[ltcm1] 15/11/2017 12:41

At this level a foreign buyer is not out of the question what with the favourable exchange rate. We have seen no end of retailers bought by foreign investors.

[ltcm1] 15/11/2017 12:40

Lol Simon. Odey increasing can be seen as a buy signal!!!

You talk about a major retailer suffering liquidity problems - but isn't the point Debenhams has a solid cash flow??? Yes the dividend may get cut but that is in the price now.

I don't see retailers crashing while there is high employment but if Brexit goes bad then it's another story.

[simon templar qc] 15/11/2017 11:51

Oddey Asset Management increased their short position on the 13th November 2017



Enough for now only popped in for a break.

[simon templar qc] 15/11/2017 11:25

Walker Greenbank press

"Order intake since interim results in October has not been sustained and brand sales in the UK, excluding Clarke & Clarke, have weakened significantly against management's expectations, the company said."



If people aren't decorating their homes they will not be buying curtains, bedding, lamps, furniture, beds, curtains or anything else connected with furnishings.

Now reader also look at John Lewis furnishings they are clearly suffering lately.

All the warnings are there.

[simon templar qc] 15/11/2017 11:19

Walker Green Bank the luxury wallcoverings and furnishings group announced a profit warning today the share price collapse over 25%.

They blame poor sales in the UK at the critical Autumn period when the majority of sales are done.

This is more evidence of a consumer downturn

More news today on the economic front wage rises lag inflation again and number of people in work fallen.

Little wonder stock market fallen sharply today all the signs are the economy heading for trouble.

There are bound to be more retail profit warnings if not before Christmas after the New Year.

I still believe the UK will see a large household bricks and mortar retailer suffer liquidity problems.

[owenski] 15/11/2017 09:05

Meanwhile it still goes down - says it all.

[simon templar qc] 15/11/2017 08:31

A "punt" !!!!!!!!!

I thought he was shrewd?

Shrewd investors don't make punts, this gets more ridiculous by the day and any prospective investors need to be warned.

[qantas] 15/11/2017 08:00

Big money in sports labels.....

[qantas] 15/11/2017 07:25

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/russell-lynch-could-gambler-mike-ashley-fancy-a-punt-on-debenhams-a3668571.html

[qantas] 15/11/2017 05:55

Interesting fact you may not know and party question how old is Debenham's?

Answers 239 years.foonded in the eighteenth century.

On Listing 202.25 pence

[kazoom] 15/11/2017 00:13

Interesting point about the Free Float Q.

The average daily trade volume is c. 4-5m which is only 0.3-0.4% of the total shares in issue.

Which indicates the difficult of large shorts or longs to unwind their positions. There have only been 12 days this year where more than 1% of the shares have been traded and only one of those (2-Oct - which was an uneventful day in terms of price movement) has been since the end of June.

This does suggest that if any of those big positions (long or short) do try to unwind quickly it could have a more dramatic impact on the price.

To be honest though I don't think this speaks to the bull case at the moment - both sides I think are fairly entrenched to be honest, but if we are looking for a dramatic event to sent one side or the other to the exits in a hurry it would probably be a negative event imho.

[qantas] 14/11/2017 23:20

Www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B126KH97/

Www.investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-major.html?t=DEB

Www.investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-major.html?t=DEB

Shorteers Now own or have to buy back13.34% getting close to Ashley's Sports Direct

Free float is small.

Please do your own research.

[tim 3] 14/11/2017 21:44

lol QC.

Problem is this strategy is so outdated people want to buy when they need something and if it is clearly over priced in one retail outlet they will buy it from another as the net means in this day and age you can usually find it competitively priced all year round.

Most can see when a jacket is ridiculously overpriced only to be on offer soon.

Ended up buying from outside the outdoor clothing outlet who also matched an online retailer but were already cheaper than Debenhams.

[justiceforthemany] 14/11/2017 21:15

Important to remember that Debenhams' sales are well diversified with clothing accounting for less than half of gross transaction value now (approx 45%) and the rest split between the rapidly growing Beauty sector and Food. The company is targeting sales of £1Bn in Beauty products alone.

[tim 3] 14/11/2017 21:03

I like Debenhams but went in the other day and it was deserted not only that but did not buy anything as most menswear items looked like they were on price establishment for sales later on.I think they need to move away from this yo yo pricing model.

[simon templar qc] 14/11/2017 19:44

John Lewis are also putting a lot of effort in internet shopping but sales are continuing to fall for about 5-6 weeks or there about.

I know Black Friday is supposed to be most important week but sales are on bow before black Friday so say the press!

John Lewis are clearly struggling most bricks and mortars are. The press even warned Marks will suffer through an increasing rates bill, Debenhams will be no different.

Look guys I wish you look I do not like to see any investor lose their money but Debenhams must be struggling at the moment.

[edmundshaw] 14/11/2017 19:28

Ashley did say he was an investor and had no intention of bidding for Debs. I don't think that will happen myself.

PE of 6 certainly discounts most of the negativity around the company, and not much positivity. Interest rates, internet shopping competition and Brexit are easy negatives to pull up. But of those, only internet shopping is really happening to date, and Debs are putting a lot of effort (and money) into making this a part of their business. Interest rates even at 2% will not deter most shoppers (at least not most of the Debenhams ones) in my view. And no-one really knows about Brexit. What we do know is that women aren't about to start wearing old clothes and not buying new ones! And make-up is anyway always a go-to when money is a bit tight for the clothes, and here Debenhams is the hegemon.

Meanwhile interest rates will end the relatively small deficit on one of the pensions. And the extensive and sensible looking schemes of Sergio Bucher may also bear good fruit.