Dawnay Day Carpathian Share Discussion Threads

[cezary] 16/2/2009 10:07

In Poland 60 percent of mortgages are in Swiss francs. The zloty has just halved against the franc. Hungary, the Balkans, the Baltics, and Ukraine are all suffering variants of this story. As an act of collective folly -- by lenders and borrowers -- it matches America's sub-prime debacle. There is a crucial difference, however. European banks are on the hook for both. US banks are not.

Almost all East bloc debts are owed to West Europe, especially Austrian, Swedish, Greek, Italian, and Belgian banks. En plus, Europeans account for an astonishing 74 percent of the entire $4.9 trillion portfolio of loans to emerging markets.

They are five times more exposed to this latest bust than American or Japanese banks, and they are 50 percent more leveraged (IMF data).

Spain is up to its neck in Latin America, which has belatedly joined the slump (Mexico's car output fell 51 percent in January, and Brazil lost 650,000 jobs in one month). Britain and Switzerland are up to their necks in Asia.

Whether it takes months, or just weeks, the world is going to discover that Europe's financial system is sunk, and that there is no EU Federal Reserve yet ready to act as a lender of last resort or to flood the markets with emergency stimulus.

[marycurer] 01/9/2008 18:00

laughing exremely hard at the non believers. you were warned well in advance that this was going much lower

[jonwig] 01/9/2008 16:45

New thread for CPT if you want to use it:

[williebiz] 01/9/2008 16:38

Overpaid for the shopping centres but probably getting close to mkt valuation now, ie NAV minus a medium discount.

But of course, reported NAV ain't the real NAV so 40-50p looks about right until the economies pick up.

[johnsoho] 01/9/2008 15:52

I think its about time Carpathian updated the website with their new name!!!! anyone going to create a new thread for this company with 'working' charts and news????

[aleman] 30/8/2008 13:46

Anybody notice that rising Euro inflation was splashed all over the media but falling Euro inflation gets ignored? CPI fell more than expected from 4.0% to 3.8%.

[aleman] 29/8/2008 12:49

Have had to change holdings in my portfolio monitor to CPT as DDC shows zero value now. We will have to start a new thread at some point.

Small caps have been rising steadily since early July. If CPT had followed the same trend they would be pushing 60p again. Knocking 1/3rd off due to Interfruct seems a bit harsh.


Results in about a month. Discount to last NAV is over 70%. Do we really expect NAV to drop below 100p to bring CPT into line with the still very large 60% discount of other emerging property minors? Wasn't there rumours of interest in DDT? CPT should look better value now to a predator.

Latest Polish GDP given as 5.8% - higher than the 5.6% expected.

[jonwig] 29/8/2008 12:32

Two trades of 2.6m shares went through (mid-price, 37.5p) at 10:47 and 10:49. In fact, of course, matching reports of a single cross trade of some sort.

Since that's only around 1%, we shouldn't necessarily hold out for an RNS.

These were on the CPT ticker, not the DDC, so I suspect the charts here are dead.

[jonwig] 29/8/2008 09:28

It looks as though we're "CPT" now.

So long as the header charts work correctly with "DDC", I'm happy to stick with this thread. After all, a new thread means that lots of useful posts get kicked into the long grass.

[indexwhacker] 28/8/2008 19:26

Anyone got the ticker for the new name? Yahoo look up isn't giving anything away about it ...

IW

[aleman] 28/8/2008 11:19

UK base rate to fall to 3.5% or less next year according to Capital Economics.

[hectorp] 26/8/2008 21:16

I wonder at Panmure's conservativity: only targetting half the price of last year. Oh well if we do see 65p by Christmas that will be about 40% rise if you include the dividend. Not much in it for those who bought at 90, 100,110p! including self thougb I averaged to 52-53p.
Off for a couple of weeks on vacation.
H.

[fugwit] 26/8/2008 17:33

Good find Jonwig, much appreciated.

Tricky times for DDC, no doubt more investors will be deciding to cut their losses this week with that news. This has some potential to be a turning point however. I am keen to see how mgmt cope with news flow going forward, the rents achieved on any releasings, and any clarification of the dividend position. If they don't make a mess of the first, the second shows a comparable rate against the original interfrruct leases then I am sure a number of peoples mind will be put at rest. As for divis, time will tell. I shall be watching DDC more closely now, maybe a few more are in order. As you say H, a couple of limit orders might be a goer here.

[crawford] 26/8/2008 10:47

Reiteration today, 65p target:

26-Aug-08 Dawnay, Day Carpathian DDC Panmure Gordon Buy 40.50p 65.00p - Reiteration

[jonwig] 26/8/2008 09:59

More insight into Hungarian economy and retail ... a snip at at £995.
Summary here; not only Lidl, but also Aldi, etc. are expanding operations:

[crawford] 26/8/2008 09:54

Yes, mostly buys so it seems Friday's fall was an overreaction.

[hectorp] 26/8/2008 09:40

Decent buying interest at 40p. Of course the events regarding these Hungarian mall properties is on-going and may take some weeks ? couple of months? to resolve. Until then my limit buys will remain below 40p.

[aleman] 25/8/2008 23:05

lonrho - thanks for the comment. I get a lot of flak from time to time so it is nice to know some appreciate the effort.

Thanks, jonwig. Odd situation. Does the company's announcement almost mislead the market? Did they think it is obvious that others might take over sites in quick time? Could be more to come out yet, though.

[williebiz] 25/8/2008 21:35

Lower down the market Dawnay Day Carpathian, which has taken pains to distance itself from the Dawnay Day empire that recently went into administration, dropped 7p to 40p on news that one of its tenants, Hungarian cash and carry group Interfruct, had two months' rental arrears.

[edmundshaw] 25/8/2008 21:23

Couldn't find it in the online paper. Any links, anyone?

[edmundshaw] 25/8/2008 09:49

Well found jonwig. Thanks for sharing it

[hectorp] 25/8/2008 08:40

THanks jonwig, if 50% of the 23 properties are to become Lidls, its easy to see a few more of them let over the 9-months grace period too.

Possibly down 2-3p more at most IMHO. Sticking limit buy orders in for tomorrow and Wednesday. I will average down here.
H.