Dawnay Day Carpathian Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 13/8/2008 11:33

£ plummeting on bad employment numbers. Investors will be scrambling for foreign earnings and assets soon. That and the Romanian financing success should see these back to 60p soon, I would guess.

[grahamg8] 13/8/2008 09:40

Investor Chronical article is a nice find Jonwig. While it concentrates on NAV the doubters on this thread have wondered how DDC could continue to pay the attractive dividend from rental income alone. Financing the Romanian development is a partial answer to how the gap can be plugged. Even more upside now than before - better security for the dividend, potential for asset growth, and when sentiment turns a reduced discount to NAV.

[hectorp] 13/8/2008 08:18

Morning !
- they wouldn't mention ' at exorbitant terms' ?
- decent news at least, and also over on CAL, big investments in their portfolio.

[jonwig] 13/8/2008 07:09

The finance of €62.5m for Romanian construction is a welcome sign that banks haven't totally shut up shop, but no mention of the terms!!

[ydderf] 12/8/2008 18:00

sub 40 here we come imho - the bear market in properties, builders and financials, will resume very soon because there is no discernable reason for anything else to occur to them in a credit deflating environment

[hectorp] 11/8/2008 19:47

Evening gunter,
- However the Russians are not leaving Georgia, which could spark forther conflict. I hope the Russians will withdraw but it could be they are going for Tiblisi to arrest and try the President for genocide
- other than that, this is not a problem for DDC countries or properties.
H.

[gunter guil] 11/8/2008 18:16

Aleman, imo, this has little/nothing to do with Iran. The headstrong President of Georgia, used an opportune moment to combat separatists and reassert Georgian control and it has severely backfired because Moscow has been waiting for just such an excuse. He took an enormous risk that Moscow wouldn't react and was outplayed.

However, that's not to say that it won't now be exploited in the manner you have suggested but it was not the motivation imo.

Anyway we digress -the shopping malls of CZ and PL are no more relevant to this subject than those of the UK. Although a more aggressive Russia is indeed a worry to us all.

[jonwig] 11/8/2008 17:48

... in readiness for a possible attack in November.

It's planned for the 4th, I hear.

[gunter guil] 11/8/2008 16:45

The Russians have many other fish to fry before the Baltics. And I think even they would admit that they are now beyond their grasp. Yes there are issues but as H said it is a completely different proposition taking on integrated EU states and Nato members.

That is why Russia is ramping up its efforts against states it deems to be in its sphere of influence who are not yet members of these organisations. The Ukraine is
going to be a very interesting one to watch.... there are many Ukrainians who still look to Moscow.

[jonwig] 11/8/2008 15:39

All true, H, but it was discussed on R4 at 1pm. Destabilisation can be a creeping process.

[hectorp] 11/8/2008 14:33

Hmmmm j,
these states are part of the EU by treaty. Its a much larger leap to declare war or walk into, an EU State. They will be core NATO states too.
IF they did so, eventually they would have to have world war.
So I cannot see it in the next few years but Putin's party are pretty ruthless I can tell.

[jonwig] 11/8/2008 12:09

H - the Georgia problems seem not to have impacted markets ... yet!

But S. Ossetia had a majority of its population pro-Russian.

Parts of Latvia and Estonia have Russian enclaves, too (Lithuania not, I believe), and Russia has always felt aggrieved at losing its influence there.

DDC assets: Estonia 0%, Latvia 7%, Lithuania 4%.

It's not unthinkable that Russian muscles could be flexed further.

[hectorp] 11/8/2008 11:31

I dumped RUS for the time being and also because I am unhappy about the Georgia issue.
Still long DDC and DCI. Very quiet just now but not always a bad thing.

[david77] 11/8/2008 08:08

"Hectorp - 27 Jul'08 - 10:02 - 1954 of 2005

O/T Tricona TRC tipped in the IC."

Nearly every day, the managers buy another 50,000 shares - they now have 6.5 million. I don't have any and don't have any cash either :-(

[hectorp] 09/8/2008 12:45

Investors chronic yesterday comments on the problems associated with geared commercial property cos in Europe.
I am not sure how this relates to DDC etc.
Apart from that, I-Chron was bullish of DDC a fortnight ago.

Our companies ie DDC and DCI are currently 'marking time' or, consolidating.

- Trichet said yesterday that the Euro zone will have a weak third quarter ( hence the tumbling Euro .USD).

How do regulars view these current events in relationship to DDC's investments.

H.

[aleman] 08/8/2008 11:19

mrionionbahjee2 - 7 Aug'08 - 20:41 - 2000 of 2002

Aleman,

I very interested in the impact of money supply and productivity. Are there any really good resources where these statistics can be plotted against long term currency movements?

Surprisingly, no. At least none that keep it simple. Many seem to deliberately complicate and cloud the issue. (I think that is the way the those that profit from expanding money want it but no doubt they would argue it is complicated. Occasionally, you came across charts that suggest it doesn't have to be.). Lots of independent websites occasionally post on the topic with odd charts to back it up but it tends to be snapshots rather than long term in-depth coverage. The productivity input tends to be ignored because it is so subjective and hard to verify. If you follow these independent snapshots over a period of time you can make your own mind up. Here are links to a few that post interesting charts and commentary from time to time.

[edmundshaw] 08/8/2008 11:16

I'd have thought:
1) Interest rates down => higher local home loan affordability => higher NTAV.

2) But lower interest rates => forex risk of lower NTAV (at least while the czech koruna remains floating - as seems likely)

However the koruna has been a strong currency and inflation low I believe. And in the end it should be the strong economy that helps our investments.

From wiki:

The koruna has been fully convertible since 1995 and began to float in 1999. The Czech Republic planned to adopt the Euro in 2012, but its government suspended that plan in 2007. In January 2008, the Czech National Bank governor Zdeněk Tůma said that the Czech Republic can adopt the Euro in 2019.


Quite a contrast to the "fourth zloty" of Poland... but then again Poland has a great recent growth record that I hope will help to underpin property valuations in the medium term, though there too the euro will not be introduced till at least 2012 (planned for 2012, but later if they cannot meet the stability requirements).

[cbeadle] 08/8/2008 10:59

I am wondering if the CZ decision won't potentiate the real estate boom there.
I was there last week and prices are appreciating 10% per year steadily, and that is with higher interest rates

[gunter guil] 07/8/2008 22:06

I for one welcome the cz interest rate decision. The currency has appreciated too much, although damage has not yet significantly materialised, so it seems well timed. Whilst some lok to the effect on the NAV, IMO it wont do us any harm to have weaker currencies. And we need to be mindful of the attraction to overseas investers.

[hectorp] 07/8/2008 20:31

fair enough , re last two sentence.

the rest of your post, having about absorbed it, being no economist, I do have the impression that you are talking sense.
H.

[aleman] 07/8/2008 18:39

In my opinion, money supply and productivity lead exchange rates. Higher rates tend to restrict money supply and lead to a stronger currency but not always. It depends on how much new lending there is because of those rates coupled with other factors like lending limits and capital adequacy of banks.

I cannot generalise about Eastern European currencies based on one example. I was just posting it for information as evidence that the "global" inflation threat being hyped in the media may be exaggerated and that we may be able to see some Eastern European economies recover from the current inflationary slowdown sooner rather than later. Unfortunately, I am less optimistic about the US and UK where there is plenty of evidence of manipulated inflation and GDP figures for political purposes. (Some suggest the US is closing in on depression rather than just recession if you plug in a realistic double figure measure of inflation rather than the 1.1% the used for Q3. The UK is merely showing evidence of a modest recession so far although the government's finances are in a horrendous mess which they are not addressing so it doesn't look set for a speedy recovery.)

Current policy from Trichet suggests the Euro will rise but I suspect the $ is firming at the moment due to heavy covert intervention in the run up to the election. As a result I wouldn't like to hazard any near term forecasts.