Dawnay Day Carpathian Share Discussion Threads

[hectorp] 15/7/2008 09:57

Kimboy
Peel Hunt's focussing on 2011 is laughable. they are seeking ANY reason to place a negative slant on the share.
It is like them writing 'LLOY's dividend might be in trouble in 2011'
it appears ludicrous.
Note there will certainly be at least 1-2 disposals in 2009-10.

[marycurer] 15/7/2008 09:52

Hectorp - 15 Jul'08 - 09:35 - 1818 of 1820

marycurer if you're short, you'll get burnt here soon.






What a ridiculous statement. One look at the chart will tell you there is not a chance i will get burnt and as i am one step ahead of the rabble i will have plenty of time to close before any material rise in share price

Remember i warned you all well in advance with 100% accuracy. Mary knows best.

[nickcduk] 15/7/2008 09:41

Not expecting a sharp move higher in the short term. Property stocks are getting trashed even further at the moment irrespective of valuation. If the company hold the dividend and make a couple of disposals to prove up the valuations then sentiment might change. Markets will need to stabilise before a sustained re-rating will take place imho.

[kimboy2] 15/7/2008 09:39

A mention in the Times today referring to a Peel Hunt report. It says that they have to re-finance by 2011 and that the dividend could be under threat.

I am not sure why they pick out 2011 as loans come up for renewal at various times before and after 2011. I presume they are suggesting that the terms of the loans may be different and additional equity may be required and therefore the dividend is under threat.

It seems a bit far fetched to me but I would be interested if anyone could get hold of the report.

It may account for some of the weakness today though.

[hectorp] 15/7/2008 09:35

morning bisiboy, will have a look at trc.
Ive closed on RUS as I've mentioned.
marycurer if you're short, you'll get burnt here soon.
H>

[marycurer] 15/7/2008 09:19

absolutely hilarious you could not make this stuff up if you tried.

[bisiboy] 15/7/2008 09:03

it is times like this that the brave will be rewarded.
there clearly are false sellers of all these type of funds and a buyers strike
take your pick from ddc rus trc(great results today sdic (james mellon upped his stake yesterday) bksa .
buy and forget about them come back next year.

[hectorp] 15/7/2008 08:56

lol jonwig- your analogy was indeed lurking when I came up with that. Even worse things have happened to RUS which has been well and truly vampirised by their Property Managers. I reluctantly closed out there last week.

- off a penny today, we will see if there is a continuation of large volume selling as per yesterday.
My take is we are pretty close to bottoming out , largely thanks to the prompt action of DDC ( as still are called)

[jonwig] 15/7/2008 08:23

H - I'm not keen to invest in a dead venture ... still less an un-dead one.

And it might just give credence to posters who've said the managers are bloodsuckers.

[hectorp] 15/7/2008 08:08

I was thinking of 'Carpathia' being the mountain range which Dracula's Castle was situated in the vampire novel. Also we have developments in Romania...

How about 'Nosferatau Properties'?

[wolstencroft] 14/7/2008 23:50

I was thinking of "Croatian Supermarkets r us" as the most apt name, except of course that The Carpathians dont overlap with Croatia but surely thats an irrelevant detail

[hectorp] 14/7/2008 23:27

fugwit, if they are covering their holdings with shorts I suppose that's ok ( though MM's could possibly also play games with the price) I assume its a SETS stock.
Aleman, I would propose that they retain 'Carpathian' as a link to what has gone before. Your ideas are as good as any.

[aleman] 14/7/2008 22:02

Any suggestions? They usually like dull stuff. Carpathian Property Trust Ltd. would be typical but I think more potential investors might look at RNSs if it was obvious where they were investing. Eastern European Retail Assets would be about right..... Yawn.

Dawn of a new EERA?





Sorry. I'll get me coat.

[fugwit] 14/7/2008 20:08

H, a dilemma that I have become no more adept at of late. Not sure they are shorting btw, is it not similar to selling a put, plus they own the underlying shares anyway?

Ta for that aleman, seems we are being gifted yet another great opportunity to buy at a ludicrous price. I for one am very pleased with the speed DDC have gone about setting up ´newco´ and securing the competencies needed to manage the fund, fairly impressive even. If the name change does occur in quick time I think they will have navigated this nicely.

[hectorp] 14/7/2008 19:15

Directors in their situation should be forbidden to short by the FSA regs - surely its obscene.
at least its not DDC they shorted. even so.

[aleman] 14/7/2008 18:51

Two funds to ditch Dawnay Day label
By James Mackintosh

Published: July 14 2008 10:59 | Last updated: July 14 2008 13:02

The panic surrounding Dawnay Day continued on Monday as two listed vehicles carrying its name said they were likely to ditch the label and one severed ties to the privately-owned financial group amid its scramble to raise cash.

Dawnay Day Sirius and Dawnay Day Carpathian, Aim-listed property funds, both said name changes were "on the agenda" after their shares were hammered by links to the group.

EDITOR'S CHOICE
Dawnay Day in third asset sale - Jul-13Dawnay Day sell-offs raise questions over rest of portfolio - Jul-11Dawnay Day, run by Guy Naggar and Peter Klimt, has put several of its assets on the block and called in a restructuring expert from Ernst & Young after hefty losses on investments.

Mr Naggar and Mr Klimt continued their cash raising on Monday, with companies they control raising €3m by selling contracts for difference, a type of derivative, on shares they own in Dawnay Day Treveria, another listed property manager. The sale cut the stake of Jetpath and Mariona, private holding companies, to 7.1 per cent from 8.5 per cent.

Kevin Oppenheim, chief executive of Dawnay Day Sirius Real Estate Asset Management, which runs the Dawnay Day Sirius fund, said: "A rebranding is very much on the agenda."

He said the Sirius management company had no links to Dawnay Day other than its part-ownership by the families of Mr Naggar and Mr Klimt, and neither had put their shares up for sale.

Dawnay Day Carpathian set up a new company to act as its investment adviser, recruiting two principals from its previous manager, Dawnay Day PanTerra, an arm of the privately-owned group.

"The reason for doing it is to be masters of our own destiny, to ensure that we had continuity of asset management and property management," said Rupert Cottrell, chairman of the fund.

Carpathian directors will consider changing the name of the fund – which will take a 9.9 per cent stake in its new, so far unnamed manager – at a meeting next Monday. Carpathian is lending its new manager £500,000 for three years at an interest rate of 10 per cent in order to get up and running.

Shares in three companies whose names link them to Dawnay Day plunged on Monday as investors worried about possible forced sales by the group.

Dawnay Day Carpathian fell 10 per cent to 39p, Dawnay Day Sirius fell 6.8 per cent to €0.44, after initially plummeting 42 per cent, and Dawnay Day Treveria, another listed property fund, dropped 15 per cent to €0.28.

The fall in Carpathian shares will further hurt Dawnay Day as it agreed last week to subscribe for £2.8m of new shares at £1.02 a share.

However, The Hotel Corporation, a listed vehicle that invests in the joint venture between Dawnay Day and brokers Shore Capital, was down just 1.9 per cent at 180p – which one person close to the group said appeared to be because of the name.

[aleman] 14/7/2008 18:43

That would assume the other majority directors are not independent.

[jonwig] 14/7/2008 18:27

Aleman - post #1800.

With Peter Klimt (of DDG) on the board of all three, and two providing RNSs, 'joined up' thinking is precisely what I would have expected.

All three have fallen, in due proportion to their gearing.

[jpmorgan] 14/7/2008 16:42

erstwhile2,

Read the link you posted again, and again and again, and you might notice that "includes CFDs" doesn not necessarily mean all the shareholding is necessarily in CFDs. It could be 1% or 21% or any combination in between.

Hope the positive action by the directors to show independence and a way forward for the company can all you take a fresh look.

If a tenant is Croation or British, if the cash flow being generated is real then I do not mind. I think your argument would have more value if you highlighted currency risks which are more likely to be a factor rather than open general statements about a country.

JPM.

[kfp] 14/7/2008 16:17

Aleman
Begs the question,if that number of shraes were disposed of,who bought them ?

[hectorp] 14/7/2008 15:43

Aye so, fugs.. but equally, the share may simply start to recover from here.
tricky !

[fugwit] 14/7/2008 15:29

Ta for that jonwig, have been keeping an eye on volumes, as you say significant. I haven´t been able to put a size on the any dd holding in ddc and cannot recall having it at home in my notes. I don´t doubt some of todays volume may well be DD disposal, but would be good to know how much more there may be...if that is at all possible. I dare say a couple more days on the sidelines shant hurt and maybe the picture will be clearer mid week.

[aleman] 14/7/2008 15:17

why isn't the thinking joined up ... ?

They are different companies. Why should they have coordinated announcements? DDC is "totally unaffected". Maybe DTR isn't or maybe their directors are unavailable to approve an announcement.

[jonwig] 14/7/2008 14:12

Nick - both DDC and DDS have issued RNSs this morning concerning the situation with DDG.
DTR hasn't, despite reporting significant changes in CDs positions like the others.
There might be some concern ... why isn't the thinking joined up ... ?

Fug - as has been posted, there have been some significant (millions) trades today. Maybe all that will be clarified.
Incidentally, trades in the past used to have more different markers (B, X, etc.) but now they all seem to be marked 'O' or 'AT'. Things like 'B' trades were OK because they went straight from a seller to a buyer 'off market'.

[fugwit] 14/7/2008 13:55

You go on holiday and what happens? sending the wife to the spa gives me what looks like a much needed opportunity to catch up, what a palava.

Mark, many thanks for the feedback from your meeting, as always much appreciated.

Key question for me now is what happens to DD holdings in DDC and how likely to be disposed of. Are we likely to see an overhang on the sell side? If so then what is a resonable price to be topping up. Of course current price is great but would be nice to try a little bottom fishing if going lower, particulalry as starting to feel a little overweight in ddc. Many thanks.