Dawnay Day Carpathian Share Discussion Threads

[hectorp] 14/7/2008 08:27

You may be right.
I've added 12K shares - averaging down to around 65p!

[nickcduk] 14/7/2008 08:24

Tempted to pick a few up around current levels but get the feeling that Dawnay will still be selling for a while so will give it a little while before making my move.

[david77] 14/7/2008 08:13

I would be buying if I had any cash - and my wife won't let me have any more :-(

[hectorp] 14/7/2008 08:07

DD.s woes must have been well flagged to professionals in the City long before the weekend I assume.
edited
down 3p.. I'll take any further weakess as a reason to top up.

[wolstencroft] 14/7/2008 08:04

...thet should have announced a name change as well to newco carpathian

[wolstencroft] 14/7/2008 08:04

no scared rabbits yet, very strange. Despite the RNS I would have expected a significant fall, but maybe Hec is right and the sellers, or at least some of them, have already sold.

[crawford] 14/7/2008 08:00

Hectorp,
I agree, last weeks fall due to a lot of uncertainty - now addressed by this mornings RNS

[hectorp] 14/7/2008 07:58

Much relief in the released news today.
Are we in agreement?
ALso how much of the fall from 80p levels was prompted by selling on this news by trading insiders and their fellow travellers?
If much of it, then this share is due some relief rally. Well We shall see.
H.

[williebiz] 14/7/2008 07:56

Reassuring but the scared rabbits have to bale out first, so still down today methinks, then will form a true bottom and start to recover.

[crawford] 14/7/2008 07:41

Yes, business as usual.

[gunter guil] 14/7/2008 07:30

yes glad to see a speedy release and that the company has moved so quickly with new arrangements.

[edmundshaw] 14/7/2008 07:27

So, business as usual (pretty much).

A very timely RNS.

Similar but less comprehensive RNS for DDS...

[edmundshaw] 13/7/2008 22:53

It stands to reason that, as DD were desperate for cash, they would be selling from their holdings in DDC, DTR and (if existing) DDS as well as the much publicised F&C Asset Management holding. That explains some at least of the recent fall in share price.

Some of the recent posts here are quite incomprehensible to me (to be polite). Especially those from non-holders.

[marycurer] 13/7/2008 22:47

yes i do laugh when after continued warnings the non believers continue disbelieving. I hope i managed to save a few from the ramping.

[slapdash] 13/7/2008 22:38

guys I think the situation at DDC is superficially strong... strong dividend..assets... etc..

However, below the surface is what is important...

The company I think has £248m pounds debt against a market value of circa £100m...

Interest cover is I think 2.5X

But the issue is what if the value of property in Eastern Eurorpe goes down?? Demographics there are bad and there has been over-building... also Euro rates are going up and a I think DDC borrows in Euros... so this whole thing is like someone over-borrowed on a house which is falling in value and with mortgage costs rising.... also the economies in Eastern Europe are likely to be hit by the credit crunch so valuations for the properties not only fall but the means of achieving income ....i.e. the rents for the properites also fall..

Hence the are squeezed on all sides and it doesn't become clear if they will survive...

Slap

[nickcduk] 13/7/2008 22:32

I don't think DDC is in any financial difficulties as a result of Dawnay Day problems. The worst that can come out of it is that banks take a tougher line on lending to DDC as a result of Dawnay Days reputation being hit. They might tighten covenant terms and jack up margin a little. I think DDC as an independent entity can withstand those pressures. That doesn't mean the share price won't get hit hard though. I think Dawnay Day have been forced sellers in the market for a few days at least. The only reason we found out they were selling DTR stock was because they are undertaking a strategic review and had to report their selling within 24 hours. I am sure we will find that they will be reporting further reductions in their holdings in both DTR and their other property vehicles over the coming days and weeks. The problem they now face is the more they sell the lower the share prices fall. That then leads to further margin calls and more selling and an even lower share price. I will be watching with interest how it unfolds and ready to pick up stock on any sharp spikes lower.

[wolstencroft] 13/7/2008 22:30

if the shares / CFDs are owned by DDC then they will now be in control of an administrator, whose duty it is to secure the best price. This might not mean selling them at the open, if at all because the voting rights attached may be influential in the future of DDC

At 27.5p or better I would certainly buy. At 35p I'm not not sure. But as stated these will be on a very significant discount with a weak management team - seems ripe for an asset strip.

I think mary has reveals her/his true colours.

[aleman] 13/7/2008 22:25

marycurer - 13 Jul'08 - 22:16 - 1752 of 1755


Im laughng very hard at the non believers. I did try to warn you.

It remains to be seen whether there is any significant damage that is already suggested in the share price. Do you laugh every time people are at risk of losing money?

[edmundshaw] 13/7/2008 22:20

The doommongers seem a bit premature. Absolutely. The company still owns all the assets it owns, is still nearly fully invested, and still has the rental income it has. They have lost some advisers, perhaps, though I thought this mainly DDPT, but any lost can be replaced. But the price is a steep discount to net assets, and nothing has changed there.

Can't see a direct on DDC trading...

As far as the CFDs are concerned, clearly DD doesn't hold the shares directly. But the CFD provider is likely to hold a substantial no of shares as a hedge, and therein will lie any overhang. With a lack of buyers in the general market, this may be a long term hold unless the directors can see a better strategy for shareholder returns than the current 17% yield, or that yield looks safe enough to attract new investment whatever the market.

[wolstencroft] 13/7/2008 22:19

"The Company is externally advised by Dawnay, Day PanTerra Limited which has a team of professionals resident in Poland and the UK. Offices are also due to be opened soon in Hungary and Romania". DD Pan Tierra, was formerly Dawnay, Day Europe Limited.



This company (pan tierra) wont be going bust I think, but the parent. In this case, AFAIK, subsidiaries, if they are such, carry on trading normally. As point out above, DD will probably try and sell Dawnay, Day PanTerra Limited along with other investment funds businesses. At the very least they will chuck out the parent's directors.

So in fact I dont think DDC will be affected much at all, except that the investment manager will be sold.

[marycurer] 13/7/2008 22:16

Im laughng very hard at the non believers. I did try to warn you.

[aleman] 13/7/2008 22:16

One thing the news does raise is the potential for non-executive director Peter Klimpt to have conflicts of interest. The last report said he had an interest in 6.8% of DDC's shares through 5 companies, including DD International and DD Properties. If he has a large amount of money tied up in the in companies which benefit from the fees he may object to changes which might be in the majority of shareholders interests.

One of the other directors has an interest in a related company but I can' t see which.

[williebiz] 13/7/2008 22:02

True but will open down a fair bit - 30p within the first half hour?

[aleman] 13/7/2008 21:58

Come on - the yield suggests the asset valuation can't be that far off.

We could do with an RNS to clarify things. In fact, the lack of an RNS suggests it has no material effect on DDC's fundamentals. Most likely DD will be taken over and DDC will continue unchanged. Alternatively, DD's management contract might be voided and shareholders can take investment advice elsewhere or in house.

DD's holding in CFD's is not the same as holdings in shares, either. It does not mean there are 20% of shares to be sold in the market in the event the investment managers go into administration. This could do with clarifying.

Equitable life got into a host of difficulties but it didn't affect my unit linked pension with them in the slightest in the short term. They are now administered by HBOS but nothing has changed for me. Longer term they will have different investment policies which will alter future returns but asset values didn't change at the handover. Also, I have another company pension where the trustees changed the investment managers and, likewise, this did nothing whatsoever to my asset values at the changeover. Paying a fee to DD for investment management advice does not mean their difficulty need have any affect on DDC - although I'm not saying it couldn't either. The doommongers seem a bit premature. There remains much to clarify and lots of bad news already seems to be in the price. It is even quite possible we could benefit from the company being liquidated as I suggested a couple of weeks ago.

(I note we have had no comments that interbank rates have eased lately. Financing for property markets might actually be passing the low point.)

[kimboy2] 13/7/2008 21:45

Dawnay Day's in third asset sale
By Kate Burgess, Investment Correspondent

Published: July 13 2008 20:45 | Last updated: July 13 2008 20:46

Dawnay Day has put its investment banking division up for sale as the privately owned financial group scrambles to raise cash after being hit by hefty losses on investments.

The group has appointed Alan Bloom, the veteran corporate administrator, to restructure aspects of Dawnay Day's complex portfolio of holdings. These include investments in financial services and real estate, including landmark properties such as the Lygon Arms hotel in the Cotswolds. Mr Bloom, head of restructuring at Ernst & Young, has handled high-profile corporate collapses such as Railtrack.

The series of rapid sales has raised concerns that Dawnay Day, owned by Guy Naggar and Peter Klimt, is emerging as the latest casualty of the credit crunch. Although sources close to Dawnay Day insist none of the group's businesses are in administration, it is expected that more companies and holdings will be put up for sale