Dawnay Day Carpathian Share Discussion Threads

[hectorp] 03/7/2008 09:19

I'd like to agree Marben, though it is prime Warsaw office territory.
Are our 'malls' in a similar sort of position.

Off topic
RUS is again rising on AT buying. Note prospective 13% yield there on 7% costs.
'Ignore Russia at our peril' see RUS thread.

[marben100] 03/7/2008 08:45

Here's some hard evidence of current valuations:

"SEGRO ANNOUNCES EUR60M SALE OF WARSAW OFFICE DEVELOPMENT

Acquired by Commerz Real

SEGRO plc, the leading provider of flexible business space in Europe, has
agreed and completed the sale of Tulipan House, Warsaw, to Commerz Real for EUR59.7m.

The transaction reflects an initial yield of 5.9 per cent, and encompasses
17,898 sq m (192,652 sq ft) of "A" class suburban office space.

In December 2005, SEGRO acquired the site as part of its EUR20m acquisition of
the Central European property development arm of the company Grontmij. Given
the location of the site - in one of the prime Warsaw office areas - the
development of a high quality office building represented the best opportunity
to maximise value. Construction was completed in June 2008, by which time
Tulipan House was already 80% leased - today it is 90% leased.

Located within the Mokotow district, the heart of the main decentralised office
market in Warsaw, the office building is currently occupied by both
international tenants and leading Polish companies including Ernst & Young;
Aster; Huawei; Legrand; TP Emitel (Polish Telecom); Kodak; ACP Pharma; Guest
Tek and A2."

[kimboy2] 03/7/2008 00:10

It was paid today I think so should be getting it shortly.

[hectorp] 02/7/2008 23:58

Dont we have a divi payment next week??

[jonwig] 02/7/2008 15:16

Nick - it's not at all easy to keep track of DDC's accounts, as they are in a state of continuous flux, with finance costs/income jumping around all over the place.
Hence the cash flow statement, especially, is hard to track.

However, taking cash items from the last revenue account, key numbers are:

Net Rental Income = £24.3m
Admin Expenses .. = £ 4.7m
Leaving ......... = £19.6m

An 8p dividend costs £18.3m.

Forex and finance gains/losses muddy up the picture.

[nickcduk] 02/7/2008 13:17

Can anyone clarify whether the forecast dividend of 8p is likely to be covered by revenue profits?

[hectorp] 02/7/2008 09:56

BDEV , TW., B&B etc.. are all doomed as far as I can see. DDC is certainly in a very much better trading position than BDEV.
Anyone buying BDEV deserves all they get.

PS ydderf have a look over at RUS...
and note that two prominent FT journalists have been buyers of RUS and DDC at much higher prices...

[ydderf] 02/7/2008 09:39

what is BDEV gearing and nav for comparison - get real jonwig, DDC is not the stock to be holding going into a bear market!

[jonwig] 02/7/2008 08:28

cnx ... Thanks for highlighting ATLS, which may be significant, as they operate in similar areas, though have a more mixed portfolio and exposure to residential might be a big problem for them.

Even after their dividend suspension (27/06) they are trading on a discount of 'only' 55% to NAV.
Gearing is 81%.

So DDC looks much better value, especially now.

[lord gnome] 02/7/2008 08:28

Yield looks good though. MKS are now paying 9% if they can maintain the divi :-)))

[ilancas] 02/7/2008 08:16

Perhaps M&S wasn't the best company to compare against. 249p this morning.

[cnx] 02/7/2008 04:54

in a similar sector,ATLS has withdrawn its dividend citing downturn in funding availability and good opportunities to invest in these times.

[hectorp] 01/7/2008 18:13

I wish ydderf wasnt so clearly ruddy smart: he is a wizard at getting in at the bottom of bargains. I hope he is wrong with DDC's market.

as for MKS its a sell today according to one newspaper.

[fugwit] 01/7/2008 18:10

I like the cut of your rhetoric,

LTV only at 60% post 30m refinancing of Agrokor portfolio in March, seems decent to me. Ltv rising to a maximum of 80% once financing costs improved. so scope for further acquisitions.

Current weighted average interest rate only 5.52%, hedged as Aleman said to 3.7% till 2011.

Average lease length 9 years (against ind. norm of 5), making future financing or forward selling negotiations just that little bit more pleasant.

All in all seems in pretty good shape to me at these levels, I look forward to my 13.5% and the possibility of a further special divi if eps substantially higher than 8p.

Shan't be spending any of it in Marks though. :-)

[ydderf] 01/7/2008 17:30

fugwit tough only for idiots - MARKS is on a p.e of 7 - DDC will not be saved by a yield that won't be held, what will the yield be at 30p? answer = 8 per cent because they will cut it, problem here is it is a financial company with huge borrowings which are going to get steadily more expensive as the protection expires....the properties are just borrowings in another form

[fugwit] 01/7/2008 16:48

7% vs 13.5%, tough call.

[lord gnome] 01/7/2008 16:34

Sounds like a good reason to be buying DTR then Aleman!

[aleman] 01/7/2008 16:06

But DDC don't operate in the UK which is turning down rapidly. (See updates for Tanfield, Pendragon, Carpetright).

Berlin - German unemployment fell in June, data released Tuesday showed, with the numbers out of work dropping by a seasonally unadjusted 123,000 to 3.16 million.

This brought the jobless rate down to 7.5 per cent.

The jobless numbers in June were 528,000 less than in the same month last year, when the unemployment rate stood at 8.8 per cent.

[ydderf] 01/7/2008 15:59

the shares are being sold because they are no longer cheap - e.g you can MARKS at 318p for a 7 per cent yield and single figure p.e, down from 420 a few weeks ago....you can't judge value wthout a context!

[aleman] 01/7/2008 15:54

Retail sales and rents seem to be doing fine in DDC's markets. The shares do seem to respond to Euribor movements to which interest payments are linked.



However, "the Group uses interest rate swaps to manage its exposure to interest rate movements on its bank borrowings. Contracts with nominal values of £252.2m have fixed interest payments at an average rate of 3.74% up until October 2011 and have floating interest receipts at Euribor".

Are the shares being sold on fear of margin erosion that won't happen for over 3 years?

[fugwit] 01/7/2008 15:31

marycurer- p&f charts look interesting, I like the logic behind them. Do you do your own or use software? Maybe you would be kind enough to point me towards a site if you are able to recommend one for playing around with these charts. tia.

[isa23] 01/7/2008 14:35

sp did not go down for AGM news. It goes down because anything with the word Property attached to it is going down. I used to think that any significant share price drop should have a reason. Not anymore. Good companies can fall sharply on general market sentiment or simply because their chart doesn't look good.

[fugwit] 01/7/2008 14:28

Can anyone see why the passing of all proposed resolutions at the AGM yesterday may have lead to a such a large decline today?