Dawnay Day Carpathian Share Discussion Threads

[crawford] 12/7/2008 20:11

FT:

* Dawnay Day sell-offs raise questions over rest of portfolio (p.16)

[jonwig] 12/7/2008 14:40

ew2 - your admission is the sort of thing I respect strongly.

As for the DDG, is it as bad as that? P Klimt owns 6.3% - shares and CDs. The 200,000 is a mere drop in that context ... though there may be more to come.

[wolstencroft] 12/7/2008 13:53

Well I though I was being clever buying in after a 33% drop. Since which the SH has roughly halved.

Reminds me of the saying that a share that dropped 90% is one that fell 80% and then halved. I switched some EE REIT-type plays into PEJR recently, having taken losses on them. Should have stuck with gold, oilers and mines and tried not to be diversified.

[hectorp] 11/7/2008 19:59

It is very hard to retain confidence in my DDC holdings averaging 68p at the moment but so far I've only bought on weakness.
So I intend to add on any future weakness. DDC is no worse an investment than, for example, JII ( J-Fleming India Trust) this too is beaten down but is a fantastic 2-3 year opportunity as India prospers while the US sinks. I am now confident that selected so called Emerging markets, and gold, are the two places to be in the next 2 years while UK markets sort themselves out.
All my purchases in 2008 are designed to be as far from US as possible.
So far so good.
I suggest that medium term ie 2 years, holding DDC at this price will prove very propitious.
Whether we are at 70p or 40p in a couple of weeks. there is no point worrying about.

[jonwig] 11/7/2008 18:59

Thanks Mark, Nick. Derivatives aren't in my toolbox.

The DTR director sale appeared on Investegate at 5:15pm ...



To realise the assets is the stated strategy for DTR, but from what I can see, DSS is more soundly based (only 24% geared, for example).

A decent asset sale for DDC would be encouraging; for example, the Varyada shopping centre in Czech R has been valued at 43% more than bought. (Actually, every one of their properties shows an uplift, so it would be enough just to realise any of them close to stated valuation!)

[ydderf] 11/7/2008 16:55

This company is now in meltdown, once things get to this stage sentiment will only turn if eps growth and transparancy return.......there seems little realistic likelehood of this in the forseeable future so the share price will keep falling because nobody has confidence to buy, this leaves only sellers, and so the process becomes self fullfilling until the divi is a notional 20 per cent plus and gets opportunistically cut, and then the banks......well, don't ask......

[marycurer] 11/7/2008 16:55

I will consider coming on board here when the time is right, but at this moment in time, the time is totally wrong.


MRP is the only oil stock worth investing in at present as it is stupendously cheap.

My tip to everyone here, buy some mrp you wont regret it.

[hectorp] 11/7/2008 16:51

marycrurer you are the nonbeliever.
You should come on side, they are cheap as chips..
or will you retain that fixation with MRP.

[nickcduk] 11/7/2008 16:48

Jon - The holding they had in DTR was a mix of physical holdings and CFD positions. The short CFD trade simply reduces their net long CFD position.

Dawnay Day losses don't really impact on the value of the assets here. What has been called into question is their judgement. Banks may take a harder line with Dawnay Day and their attempts to raise finance as their reputation has come into question. Equally shareholders don't like to see their investment manager rack up huge losses elsewhere as it calls into question their competence. Both these factors lead to a lower rating and would explain why the share prices across their portfolios have been trashed more than the wider market.

[marben100] 11/7/2008 16:44

jonwig,

The short CFD transaction is just another way of saying they've closed some of their long position. Looks like a rather small amount against the 51.4m they still hold. Perhaps they needed some cash to contribute to the amount they were obliged to cough up for the DDC subscription?

[marycurer] 11/7/2008 16:37

im laughing very hard at the non believers.

[jonwig] 11/7/2008 16:16

Thanks nick. I was looking on Investegate only.

But ... what's the logic/strategy behind their taking a short CFD position? It's beyond my ken, I'm afraid!!

[marben100] 11/7/2008 16:12

Of course, director dealings are the other way for DDC: today they BOUGHT ~2.8m shares in DDC @ 102p, as part of the subscription agreement... but Mr Market is in "headless chicken mode" ;0)

Fear, uncertainty & doubt rule, rather than hard facts.

[nickcduk] 11/7/2008 16:06

Jon

Here is a link to the announcement:-

[jonwig] 11/7/2008 15:54

Nick - I can't find any recent Director Dealings on DTR. Can you point me?

[jonwig] 11/7/2008 15:50

Strange situation.

DTR (German retail) is the one with the gearing: 230%, but is taking steps to release value.

DDS (German sheds) has gearing of only 24%. Discount to NAV there is 50%.

[nickcduk] 11/7/2008 15:39

Too add further fuel to the fire it looks as though Dawnay Day directors reduced their position in DTR by 200k shares. They are still long 56m shares but it looks as though they were forced sellers. It would be difficult to understand why else they would be selling DTR when it is at year lows and only a couple of weeks ago undertook a strategic review with a view to selling itself off.

[edmundshaw] 11/7/2008 15:38

DDC -5.67%
DTR -5.63%
DDS -16.23% (!)

[hectorp] 11/7/2008 15:37

Hmmm I can see your point nickcduck. However surely DDC should be consideraed quite independently?
Seems the markts are again unsettled today.
Hmmm, well next week is a new day etc. At least I have DNX !
H.

[marben100] 11/7/2008 15:28

nickcduk - thanks for drawing attention, worth noting & may explain some excessive negativity (see )

[nickcduk] 11/7/2008 13:48

Alphaville passed comment on how huge losses for Dawnay Day yesterday had knocked sentiment across their investment funds. Perhaps the poster who thought my observation was tenuous would care to have a read.

[ptolemy] 11/7/2008 13:14

Good debate. My glass is half empty just now.

[hectorp] 11/7/2008 08:03

jonwig, edmundshaw - yes, the most significant aspect is that this gives us a current snapshot of actual local valuations, with NAV at least 102p, with a share price half that. This news should help to support the current price .