Dart Share Discussion Threads

[davebowler] 10/3/2019 14:14

Wonder why we didn't get a mention??

[wagnerlove] 09/3/2019 19:29

Snorkel, the only two brokers that forecast earnings and therefore set forward consensus expectations for Dart are contracted house brokers, Arden and Cannacord, not independent analysts. As such, it is important to remember they are there to communicate to the market the expectations that Dart management wants them to. Meeson has always been conservative in his guidance. Every year the company says the same, fairly lukewarm-sounding stuff, and then the company beats the analyst forecasts by a wide margin. This does not happen by accident. See the below for how forecasts, half year guidance and final full year EPS have turned out.

Going into 2016 FY Arden analyst estimate was for 51.3p EPS. Company guidance in November 2015 half year results was “With winter 2015/16 Leisure Travel bookings continuing to perform in line with expectations and notwithstanding the important post-Christmas booking period that is still to come, the Board is optimistic that current market expectations for the full year will be achieved”. Actual 2016 FY result was 60p EPS, so Dart beat the forecast by 17%.

2017 FY analyst estimate was 44.8p. Company guidance in November half year was “with bookings continuing to perform in line with expectations, the Board is currently optimistic that market expectations for the full year will be slightly exceeded”. Analyst then upgrades to 49.7p. Actual 2017 FY result was 51p, so Dart posted 14% above first estimate and 2.61% beat of updateted estimate.

2018 FY estimate was 61p. Company guidance in November half year was: “future leisure travel bookings for this financial year [are] performing ahead of expectations. As a result, the Board is optimistic that market expectations will be materially exceeded. Looking further ahead, whether this strength in demand will remain in the medium term is unclear and will depend on the evolving competitive environment”. Actual FY 2018 result was 74.59p EPS, so Dart came 22% ahead of original analyst forecast.

2019 FY EPS estimate is 94p, which was set after July 2018 FY results. Last November 2018 HY guidance was: “With winter 2018/19 Leisure Travel bookings in line with expectations and notwithstanding the important post-Christmas booking period that is still to come, the Board expects current market expectations for the year ending 31 March 2019 to be met”. I expect, as in previous years, the 94p forecast will be beaten by a decent margin for reasons previously discussed in previous posts.

The stock moves pretty much mainly on the changes in forecasts of these two analysts (prompted IMO by Dart management) so next key event will be when 2020 numbers are updated. Current 2020 forecast EPS is for 82p, a big drop from this financial year, so may well be moved up sharply after July results. I expect trading statement to be cautious as always, but probably not to result in significant upgrade or downgrade to forward expectations by anlaysts unless bookings for summer 2019 have really fallen off a cliff.

[castleford tiger] 08/3/2019 18:01

I am pretty confident that we will be 20% up in line with growth

Tiger

[snorkelparker] 08/3/2019 11:08

Agreed CF on the numbers.. It will depend on commentary on next year's numbers.. If I had know the 6 month numbers prior to release I would have bought a ton of stock in anticipation of a big pop.. And got it completly wrong.. All because of broker downgrades.. How reliable are you on bookings being up 20% year on year for this coming summer?

[sogoesit] 08/3/2019 08:07

Thanks realCT...
Good management usually surprises to the upside (underpromises and over delivers).

When I was in EZJ the market was quite capable of understanding the seasonality issue.
That leaves, in my view, Capex and risks to growth... basically the balance sheet (low debt) and return on investment on new Capex.
These are management issues... trust them or sell out would be my view on that.

[castleford tiger] 08/3/2019 07:33

To answer an earlier question about winter losses.

Dart made 337m in 6 months for EPS of 186p.( Current year|)

Forecasts are for year end 94.36p ( to give a p/.e of 8)END OF MARCH 19

That suggests a loss of 160m and 90p eps loss.(second half)

previous year loss in winter was 70m and 41p eps.

So I think the market has more than covered what losses we will get.
As usual I think we will smash forecasts and make over 100p for the year.

I also note concerns about fast growing companies and tend to agree..........however unlike Norwegian etc Jet2 ( dart) has remained making a profit and significantly very little debt.

That's the important part for me. I have growth running nearer 25% YOY.

Tiger

[shaker44] 08/3/2019 04:34

Woozle is so right...

[shaker44] 08/3/2019 04:34

People is so right. Use filter!

[tongosti] 07/3/2019 23:45

Sogoesit - what he means is that I have never been part of the wider consensus but rather challenge it with arguments. Guess what - he doesn't like it as he perceives boards as fan clubs rather than places where folks debate their points. As you could tell from what I was writing earlier is that even though I may have a different view from yours it does not stop one to have a meaningful engagement. Anyway good nite all!

[sogoesit] 07/3/2019 22:45

Appearances can be deceptive, Woozle1... on some threads I have been called "insane" and mug or even a "mut punter"... so "sensible" is a compliment I appreciate. ;-)

But, not sure I understand in what sense I have been "sucked in" by tongosti?

I will, however, say that there is an idiom in french "Je suis majeur et vaccine!" which may explain my position! ;-)

[tongosti] 07/3/2019 21:42

What does W stand for? Ah yes - woof woof

[woozle1] 07/3/2019 20:01

sogoesit, you appear to be sensible but have been sucked into the theatre of the absurd by Tongo. You are in a long line of people who have attempted rational argument with him. The best advice is to filter him and his many aliases.
w1

[sogoesit] 07/3/2019 18:22

Thanks very much for your insights tongosti, appreciate it.
I get the statistical anaylysis basis for your probabilistic view.

Surprisingly, in the growth category of stocks there are a few (and I have alluded to one or two in my "aviation/travel" theme) but, as you point out, sustainability of such growth and the current pricing of that potential growth are the key issues... other than competent management. For me, a growth stock has to surpass 30% pa giving quite an adequate selection to choose from for portfolio risk balance.

Not to bore you guys with any more discussion here's wishing you luck and thanks again for your insight.

PS. I am not targeting the 2000p you mention in your "Strong BUY" thread in the short/medium term. And that is a certainty! ;-)

[tongosti] 07/3/2019 17:43

Sogoesit - I follow a different path to make money but surely I understand your fundamental reasoning and its implications from a longer term perspective. The topic has been discussed to death on this board so won't touch on it any further. And yes I agree signal/noise ratios would be deferent to different time horizons and I would strongly argue that its existence does not go away regardless how long one's horizon may be (otherwise the proverbial long term would be the undisputed path to fabulous riches, which is really the province of the few - hence there's only one WB around). While not an infallible tool, probabilities can be assigned by say X Sigma deviations in the context of historical market (and fundamental) action. And this is true for any timeframe (assuming one has enough data especially for the longer term which is always a big if). You mention 50% growth rate from late 2016. We know that anything above 25% growth rate has been the domain of the very few companies in the history of the financial markets so here's maybe where one aspect of probability comes in. That is: - how sustainable in the future can the (unheard of rate) 50% growth figure can be maintained going forward (a historical review of industry big success stories may provide clues)and - how much of the story has already been priced in?

[sogoesit] 07/3/2019 16:47

realCT:
Yes, the half year report, in November 2018, signalled "increased losses" due to capital investment. Has the market not yet reacted to this signal?
If it hasn't then there is further downside to the current price.
Normally, further capex poses many risks. Price weakness should ensue but it does not seem to have. (The sell-off from September '18 appears to be a market sell-off not a risk specific sell-off. Reaction since November/December is muted to say the least and the price trend is upward in line with the long term trend).
AIMO

[sogoesit] 07/3/2019 16:30

Yes, helpful and interesting tongosti, and understood, in general, the concept of noise vs signal.
In practice, 'tho,:
(i) I would have thought that noise/signal ratio is dependent on the term... for example, say on a term view of 3 years on entry now, is the noise to signal ratio high and why?
(ii) in the probabilistic sense what is the basis for deducing the probabilities? This is, by definition, a short term issue (ie short term decision on entry or exit to save xx% over the long term outcome or selling in case of foreseen event risks which are "signalled"). I.e. what is the short term upside versus downside price and why?

Notes:
I am not a trader. My term view is 3-5 years from beginning 2019.
This stock is growing at about 50% pa from October 2016. It has further growth potential imv given the state of its competitors.
Further, I think it is currently undervalued in the range it is trading at.
(By feeding-in gradually, I have a (small) position and have skin in the game. Better to ascertain the market's perceptions compared to my own, rather than standing on the sidelines and viewing as an outsider).

[castleford tiger] 07/3/2019 15:55

This can move sharply up if the trading update is good. However with forecast earnings being lower this year than last ( i think they are miles out)THE DOWNSIDE IS IN THE PRICE.
TCG ARE going to fail and i think later this year.
That could cause a massive surge in the price.

Its tough out there ( pricing) but what business is being done is coming to JET2.

Just concerned about all this over capacity.

We have added 20% again this summer.
The results for current year to end of march will be record results

tiger

[tongosti] 07/3/2019 15:37

separating noise from signal can be approached by looking at higher probability price areas VS lower ones. All you need to do is to establish where your probabilities lie around the price you have recently bought in. Helpful?

[sogoesit] 07/3/2019 15:29

Interesting comment... when is there no noise?

[tongosti] 07/3/2019 14:06

Brave adding in noise

[sogoesit] 06/3/2019 13:29

Added my second tranche, at 844, Monday.
Part of my aviation/travel theme for 2019 consisting of AVAP, SSPG, PPH, DTG.
Good luck in the turbulence!
PS Thanks for ATOL figures realCT.

[castleford tiger] 05/3/2019 08:23

I agree its brutal out there at the moment but we are finding growth and others are going backwards.
Normal conditions will return eventually.

We are very strong but I can see headwinds coming.
1) Easter falls in a new year for DTG this time.( so we have a trading year without one)
2)deep discounting is the norm
3)Winter has been very difficult in the pricing sense but for us its a very quiet time.

On the other side
Very little weather disruption
TCG still loosing market share.
Still very good feedback from customers.

As snorkel says 874k in a year growth ( headroom) is fantastic.

All with little increase in debt and no rights issue.

The turbulence ahead may present further buying chances.
Tiger

[shaker44] 05/3/2019 04:25

In a crowded dynamic market I prefer to be invested in a focussed experienced self invested management team such as DTG.
Forgive the pun but Jet2 will soon be above the radar and see a step change upwards in valuation as @real CT believes too.