Dart Share Discussion Threads

[castleford tiger] 14/11/2018 18:22

Doubt it fits our model.
The model they have is flawed and cannot make money in my opinion.
Think they are a gonner.
tiger

[getscenic] 14/11/2018 18:07

Anybody on here have any feelings on DRT taking on Flybe?

[castleford tiger] 14/11/2018 17:31

South

hxxps://forums4airports.com/threads/887/page-45

have a read pal

They are pulling out as a base. So yes may still operate fewer flights in and out.

As they say Jet2 are just too good

tiger

[southislandbrave] 14/11/2018 17:22

Not quite sure about TUI leaving LBA altogether. There would appear to be plenty of holidays available for 2020 on their website, starting from LBA?? But still everything crossed for tomorrow morning!SIB

[wagnerlove] 14/11/2018 17:11

One sided boat? Tongo, yes comments on this forum are positive, but this is a tiny group of people. You seem to have missed reality - this is not a hyped stock. Dart is covered by two analysts from small brokerages no one can even read any more due to Mifid. Thomas Cook has over a dozen analysts covering it. Barely any institutional investors have even heard of Dart. Those that might be tempted to look think it is simply a low cost European airline, when it is actually much better, higher margin business. If they get past that stage and they want to invest they will find it hard, as it is a highly illiquid stock, trading on average sub-£3m worth of shares daily on a £1.5bn market cap! Most big funds simply can’t own it, even if they find it and then bother to research it. Meeson meanwhile has a 38 per cent stake worth £550m. He has built this company from nothing. Jet2 Holidays only launched 10 years ago and is now second biggest in UK. Yet barely anyone in finance knows this. It trades at 10 times earnings with net cash. Come what may tomorrow, the run up has not been due to hype. This is all happening under the radar.

[tongosti] 14/11/2018 15:57

SP - over the years I have been both long (all contained on this board) and short DTG. At the mo, the crux of it is that this is one of the most one sided boats I have ever seen. Trust me- I have seen everything in this industry. Consequently, very easy to get tipped over. Hence my skepticism + current state of wider markets. Goes without saying but I look way beyond fundamentals (which are only part of the story in my book - whatever happened to live and let live with some...) before I get in or out. Different game to yours but most on here like to pontificate on the one "true path" but very very few realise there are so many ways to skin a cat. I look for a quicker buck here and there - am done ages back with buy and hold. In my last short I was wrong and very quickly covered for a minimal loss. Now let's see what tomorrow brings!!

[snorkelparker] 14/11/2018 14:16

not much volume last few days, wonder if we will see a pop in vol and price towards the end of the day.

A push to touch 10 quid maybe

[snorkelparker] 14/11/2018 14:03

CF,

My number is based on slightly exceeding full year 2019 forecasts, we know how cautious PH is on forecasts and would probably have something up his sleeve to commit to being in line with current expectations at such an early date. So could be less eps for the 6 months. But with a more rosier commentary on winter losses. Anyway you catch my drift.
I'm assuming here that PH is referring to .96 eps as current expectations
SNK

[snorkelparker] 14/11/2018 13:57

Its a shame you took an opposite view, as it seems rare to find a share post with so much factual information on a stock like this.. A company which gives little away to the market / The City gives those that are prepared to investigate or have an understanding of the business to take advantage.
Key with a stock like this is to know when the best has passed which is tricky as its so scale-able and obviously a real disrupter for existing players.
If Flybe goes down which is a very strong possibility options in the UK are going to really reduce.
But a few months of uncertainly coming, may get a chance to top slice if results are good and look again for an entry position.

[castleford tiger] 14/11/2018 13:46

What i expect is a further jump in the price as Dart delivers above market expectations again.
They have driven TUI out of Leeds.
We took RYAN on at STN and are growing fast there.

Huge record profit and if snorkel is right and EPS are 150p valuing us at 6x historic earnings ( yes the loss half still to come)i expect a 100p jump.
Fair value for what we know is about 1200.

I was the one who said 10.00 by 2020 when everyone thought i was daft.

Tiger

ps if we were valued like FVR or other high valued growth stock on 40/50/60 x earnings i might be prepared for a slow down and a hit in the price. Its very doubtful here at less that a 1% chance

[tongosti] 14/11/2018 13:24

That's what makes a market in the end so fair play to you and for being different to most bulls on here by holding a civilised discussion with opposing views

[snorkelparker] 14/11/2018 12:48

Expect the unexpected, but expecting to be pleasantly surprised. EPS higher than 1.5

[tongosti] 14/11/2018 11:33

Expect the unexpected...Nah ... for most folks on here this is a one way street forgetting this (like anything else in this universe) is an out and out odds game

[snorkelparker] 14/11/2018 10:08

Wagner,Thats what im thinking ref MW. As worzel commented probably a few more hedge funds short as well.. A few of us on this board follow this company pretty closely CF has a very good idea of whats going on at all levels ..So I keep thinking what does MW know that we dont? Or is it as you said just a small punt along with TCG. The latter is the only logical explanation for me.. Lets hope for a nice short squeeze..But always expect the unexected ..last few announcements have come after a small decline in the stock where good results coupled with lower expectations have fired the share price up violently..be interesting tomorrow if its a kinda in line with expectations announcement..Im not expecting that ..but all will be revealed tomorrowSnk

[shaker44] 14/11/2018 09:49

I have an idea for you Tiger. Take on Tongo's short. Win /win.

[wagnerlove] 14/11/2018 09:34

Interesting that Marshall Wace hasn’t covered its short yet. This means there is still a forced buyer of 900k shares out there, or more than three days worth trading volume. Things could get squeezy tomorrow. Only worth £7m, meaning it is a tiny position for them and won’t have had much time devoted to it. No coincidence surely that they opened it just after Thomas Cook warned in late September, presumably on the logic TCG weakness in UK would hit Jet2. This is obviously flawed logic as TCG weakness is caused by Jet2.

[castleford tiger] 14/11/2018 09:09

Tong

Anytime you want to meet for a face to face let me know.
I love other views that are backed up with facts. I can change my mind.
If you look back i get very nervous here when we changed the model and bought new planes.
You however give no factual reasons as to why this will fall.

The market is wide open and Dart is exploiting its low cost base.

I have backed all my points with evidence from you just theory
tiger

[tresham] 14/11/2018 09:02

I’m predicting £225m profit in 6 months to September 2018.
(160m shares), EPS 140p per share. A 20% increase on last year,
Net assets £775m, Net assets per share of £4.80

Calculating 6 month loss 30 09 17 to 31 03 18:
Annual result, +59p, result without currency gains
six month last year +117p
Giving six month loss of -58p
-58p add above 6 month result of 140p and it gives a 12 month result to 30 09 18 of 82p per share
That is a PE 970/82 = 12


I can’t find an airline with better FCF/EV?

Thank you for all the factual and quantitative information given here.

[tongosti] 13/11/2018 21:14

Btw grandad- really impressed with your reply (what reply?!) on CAPM's Beta link I posted earlier. Goes to show a lot re your half knowledge of the game. Again, luck VS brains. You should read Taleb's fooled by randomness book. It's made for fools like ya

[tongosti] 13/11/2018 20:51

Give it up...move on...Designated thought police officer of the board as well then eh?You're a sad case grandad. You shouldn't have gone all in and you will have only yourself to blame on the trip south. Not being able to hold a discussion is one thing. Hating opposing views radiates fear in one's judgement. Bull market is very much over for stocks so fools will say addio to their money very soon!

[castleford tiger] 13/11/2018 20:14

Just given at least 6 of your views all negative.
Give up and move on
Tiger

[tongosti] 13/11/2018 20:13

Almost forgot - someone getting soooo emotional and charged up when price moves on one's favour is either a rookie or he/she's all in (risk management is an alien concept obviously) Very probably a combination of both. Lord help them when things turn sour...And sour they will!

[tongosti] 13/11/2018 20:08

Market has nothing to do with individual stocks! Ah dear... tools have taken over the board. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_(finance)And as for my "mistakes", the latest info I shared on this board was covering my then short at 590p. In light of what followed next that's called excellent risk management but I can't expect average tools to get that now innit!

[wagnerlove] 13/11/2018 19:56

Don't get angry with Tong. You should love people like him. His obvious lack of basic accounting concepts, buisness/industry analysis or the ability to do even simple background research create fantastic opportunities for people who do the work. People who think they know how to play but keep losing money are the most profitable people to play against by far. The biggest fish of all is the guy who doesn't even know he is a fish. Long live Tong.