Dart Share Discussion Threads

[snorkelparker] 08/11/2018 12:06

You reckon many shorts are still out there W ?

[woozle1] 08/11/2018 11:49

The idea that hedge funds are any better than private investors is silly. Generally speaking, most are speaking to the same brokers about the same ideas and there's a tendency to groupthink and crowded trades. Whenever one reads about hedge fund being long or short it normally pays to take the other side of the position.

Anyways, where are those geniuses who were telling us that DTG was about to blow up on basis of fallacious reasoning and muddled thinking?

w1

[snorkelparker] 08/11/2018 10:54

Marshall wace with their 900k of shorts looking dangerous now if not covered..along with others below the 0.5% reporting threshold.. all those hedge funds that tong was talking about might just be about to loose a few quid..what a difference a couple of weeks makes

[snorkelparker] 08/11/2018 10:47

Bingo 9.5..good call.

[snorkelparker] 08/11/2018 08:16

9.365 looking good ...:)

[snorkelparker] 08/11/2018 07:42

Big call on 9.50 today.....but If right on the shorts then we should be in for a nice ride...agreed on oil another decent drop and a new set of hedges can be put down for summer 2020..O'leary spouting off about high oil prices hope he has been locking in prices a month or so back ..

[castleford tiger] 08/11/2018 07:31

oil has to come down 10/20 usd in my opinion.
It will reduce cost of hedging going forward.
Summer 19 pretty much covered before oil went silly
tiger

ps i think 950p today and we break new ground with the results.

[snorkelparker] 08/11/2018 02:43

Nice to see oil falling to..must be in the range where most of the short positions in the stock where taken ..a move higher could start some covering..

[castleford tiger] 07/11/2018 22:31

Steady climb back now 925p
Tiger

[castleford tiger] 05/11/2018 09:11

Rumor re Cardiff base is getting stronger.
Announcement to be made first quarter 2019

tiger

[snorkelparker] 05/11/2018 08:02

Yep..fair comment so really should be no surprises at least to the downside

[castleford tiger] 04/11/2018 10:49

snorkel

I will be very surprised if they miss targets as most sales were booked and paid for.
summer 19 sales ahead of same stage last year.

tiger

[snorkelparker] 04/11/2018 04:32

Fokker,
That would be a nice set of results for sure ..
SNK

[fokker45] 03/11/2018 18:25

Winter losses over last 5 years have more than doubled from GBP36M to GBP78, but the profit margin has been relatively stable (varying between -9pc and -15pc), the average being -11pc, which is the number I plugged in. Perhaps the loss may be less this year as STN and BHX are maturing as bases, perhaps it will be worse because of fuel and Brexit concerns. I'm not going to try and estimate them, if the PBT comes in at GBP272.5M for H1, I will be a happy bunny.

[snorkelparker] 03/11/2018 13:28

CF,Am I missing something on your assumptions ? Last year eps was H1 1.17 and H2-0.42.Basing on your HI YE2019 eps of 1.3 followed by H2 -0.42 "same as last year" will give full years earnings at 0.88 a miss on full year current expectations at an eps of .96I'm thinking that PH has guided upward first to materially beat YE2019 expectations when these they where at .75 "July 2018" followed by meeting revised expectations at .96 "Sept 2018" unless I'm reading the commentary incorrectly that was my assumptions on where we are guided to.So working back based on the winter losses 18-19 getting larger as per the trend say at (0.48p) eps vs (0.42) to meet revised expectations we need a H1 eps of 1.44.I might be wrong about the winter losses increasing YOY,due to better sales in that period from the Southern bases, but for this exercise just followed the trend which could be inaccurate. The only facts I currently have is YOY holiday bookings up 25% and winter bookings looking satisfactory "Sept2019"Not 100% sure how to read this statement "with Leisure Travel bookings growing slightly ahead of our 25% summer 2018 seat capacity increase" first read is we are up 25% YOY on bookings but now not sure it means that but rather slightly ahead which certainly changes my assumptions.As we go into earning 1.44 is the number I'm watching in the absence of improved winter profitability.SNK

[castleford tiger] 03/11/2018 11:42

i do not think you will be far off there.
revenue might be slightly higher.

Last two years we lost 63 and 84 in second half but i caution some distortion to setting up the new bases and how it fell.

best
Tiger

[fokker45] 03/11/2018 10:38

With one of the analyst targets being (for YE 31.03.2019) Revenue 3,035.5M and PBT 175.05M, I believe the H1 results due on 15 November will need to be Rev 2,164M and PBT 272.5M to be on target (based on last 10 year H1/FY revenue/PBT splits).

[woozle1] 02/11/2018 16:33

Apologies for missing you out joe king1. Plenty of portions of humble pie available for you, too, at most kid drop-in centres. They can even sing you lullabies and help with your anger management issues. Good luck with your losses. I know it hurts; especially when you don't know what you're doing
w1

[woozle1] 02/11/2018 16:08

Drongo and xc1 are back for portions of humble pie. See you in March for the next episode of candle in wind, incoherent ramblings. You do keep us amused.
w1

[tongosti] 02/11/2018 12:07

You cannot buy class C - rule number one is engaging with people means not calling them names. You come across as a very emotional and insecure old man. Good luck to you too dear.

[castleford tiger] 02/11/2018 12:01

Tong

You either think the shares are good value or not.

My view is that they are cheap.

I buy for the longer term and have tried to buy the dips,

Of course it will never be straight up but this is going to 20.00 a share.
Just as i said 10.00 a share and everyone laughed.

I base this on EPS of 200p on t/o of 6b a year.

You can work out when by adding 20% growth a year to current year of 100p but certainly less than 5 years.
Much depends on
New bases and how the country goes post brexit and the FX rate.

Tiger

ps tong

You ran away for 5 months the last time you said DART was overvalued and in an failing sector!

so don t give me all that tosh. You and XC1 had this falling fast

Tiger

[tongosti] 02/11/2018 09:38

Snorkel - good seeing we're on same page re welcoming opposing views. It only helps people reach better informed decisions (and avoid like a plague confirmation bias which is prolific on this board). As I was saying to you a few days back this rally was to be expected and all eyes now are on the big day. Good weekend.