Danakali Share Discussion Threads

[phook inell] 21/7/2002 19:06

forfaiter

thanks. you intending to top up if it falls below 30p (which I doubt very much by the way) ??

[forfaiter] 21/7/2002 19:03

Usually the first week of August..

[phook inell] 21/7/2002 19:02

forfaiter

and Danky's Q1 results soon after...

[forfaiter] 21/7/2002 18:53

Yep...IKN and GISX on wednesday and XRX on thursday......

[cinoib] 21/7/2002 18:34

Too many 1/2 BAKED PILLACKS ON THIS BAORD LATELY getting like a few others all those with something of use upstairs leaving.Pitty the idiots don't leave instead. Going to be a very rockey ride next week. Some heavy weights reporting, looking for strong movment, both ways.

[blackbear] 21/7/2002 17:22

phookinell , its interesting you used the s+p to put your case across, note pe 16-17 is forward looking to 2003 , current pe around 26-25 which means the recovery of earnings if it occurs which (i dont think will happen so watch this space)has too much faith in the price already.
on top of a doughtful recovery needed we have serious accounting issues which will get tighter and tighter diminishing earnings , wait untill share options get taken off the bottom line then the fun will begin.

im short s+p and have been since 1270 when the uptrend was clearly broken, i have no intention of closing until a frightening prospect of 500 comes close.

for what its worth i belive the ftse isnt too badly rated with interest rates and yeilds on a par , 3500-3800 for now could accept as reasonable.

as for the u.s market its phooked . watch msft fall to $28 , gates is a big seller by the way $600million worth just last week.

blackbear.

[matt1231] 21/7/2002 17:11

Interesting posts guys.Glad to see that ff is no longer selling danka/danky short pre-results and all respect for now telling it the way he sees it.Obviously real company valuations will follow Q1, Q2 and Q3...results.Danka can be a very volatile share at the best of times.What is not in doubt is that it can bring great riches to those investors who time their buys and sells right.Get your timing wrong and obviously the converse is true.The question of bottom picking has been raised and as we all know difficult to call an exact bottom. Wait too long and you've missed it and therefore case to consider drip feeding money in.From memory recently saw danky sold short down to $1.77 intraday and ff has quoted support levels of $1.90...$1.50...and $1.07.

Arguments of valuing danka between 20p to £1.20 have for the moment gone out the window, at 86p highs share price ran ahead of itself, overdoing the greed bit and now heading lower on fear. Now seems to be more a case of valuations between 17p to 50p pre-results which makes a mid point of 33.5p with suggestion that undervalued at sub 30p.From one traders perspective trading by the charts it has been suggested that not a buy signal until 50p is broken,potentially missing possible 66% gains from say 30p to 50p.

What to do? Personally more confident come Q3 than Q1 coming up and therefore agree with taking 3-6 month view or longer. All due respect and admiration for this thread,to those with detailed knowledge,research, explanation of results and trading.If I had to mention specific names Oaklandsway and Forfaiter/pgevans34,curioulsy now both on the same side and fighting the same cause.Whilst these markets can take share prices in either direction and yes marked down tomorrow a.m will be no surprise ,gut instinct tells me that danka/danky should not be trading sub 30p.MMs will play along with panic speculative/selling in falling markets,however,if I shorted which I don't,would not want to be holding open a sub 30p short longer than intraday.Remember danka/danky always bounces back.

That's my tuppence worth.
All the best.
IMHO.DYOR.

[blackbear] 21/7/2002 09:40

ff, being a regular trader im somewhat supprised you would follow this share all the way down to $1.07 , you must have a fair degree of trust in this company,i really think dnk would need to sell much more than 1 copier to survive, buiseness is still very tough out there to say the least.

i trust noone in this market so would only trade this stock on a graph basis,
a buy signal would not appear until 50p is broken.
infact after monday would point towards some sort of bottom around the 28p at best , it could be quite swift imho.

[phook inell] 20/7/2002 23:35

cheers ff.. appreciated

[forfaiter] 20/7/2002 21:31

Phook......need confirmation that the break of the 200d ma is for real and not just a reaction to the Dow dropping 400 points and a bit of opportunistic shorting ....if the Dow rallies on monday then DNK may follow..?

I expect the mm to mark it down heavily first thing so will sit tight, and I am not worried with a purchase price of 33p over the longer term..

If it does carry on downwards then there is support at $1.90...$1.50...$1.07..and I will double up....at the lower level if reached

I agree that anything less than 30p is BK levels which no longer applies...as for the results...they will only have to show that they have sold more than one photocopier to justify this price level......

I expect to show a good profit 3-6 months down the line....

[forfaiter] 20/7/2002 21:09

LOL...thanks..

[smoketrader] 20/7/2002 20:54

FF, don't mention it. If it drops Monday I'll let you know.

[forfaiter] 20/7/2002 20:18

Down monday thats for sure...after that no idea I am afraid.....

[phook inell] 20/7/2002 20:05

ff

you have any idea where Danka share price is headed short term and after Q1 results ? value your insight.

[forfaiter] 20/7/2002 20:03

Heh supersmug the psychic wall flower......aren't you the clever one calling the event after it happened.....thanks for letting us know...loser...LOL

[smoketrader] 20/7/2002 19:01

I sold out at 68p (seems like an age ago now) and haven't been back in since. I made a decision not to buy back before the 14-day directional movement indicator crossed again and that kept me out of this market.

Now the price has broken downwards from a pennant formation forecasting further downside. I'm just amazed how far it's dropped and I can't really understand the reasoning behind it, except maybe that they're being unduly punished in what is now just a few percent away from being the worst bear market since the Great Depression.

[phook inell] 20/7/2002 18:51

superpete

"In current poor earnings season "

if you look closely at the majority of the companies that have reported in the US, they have reported very good earnings. Its the guidance they have provided that has been poor hence the hammering of stocks. hopefully danka will not provide such a dire outlook.

I am expecting this to go to 30p or below... but not for long. To think it was at these sort of prices when it was on the verge of bankruptcy so fundamentally there is no reason why it should be there again when the company is in much better shape. Short term, no doubt there will be volatility - stocks across the board have been hammered both good and bad. But long term, if one is able to ride out this terrible storm, one can look forward to excellent share holder value appreciation. Remember, Danka has come through a very torrid time in the past 2 years when it was was in a critical state, its got the clout now to do the same and survive the economic turmoil. Its not a matter of if but when - danka will survive, its attempting to buy the stock at the correct price which is the headache - but buying at prices in the current price range, one cant really go wrong in the long term. How much downside can it have from say 33p ? How much upside can it have from 33p ? If you buy with a long term attitude, the daily girations wont bother you that much, in fact it may throw up further buying opportunities.

good luck.

[chestnuts] 20/7/2002 18:48

People are nervouse but more in the states than this side of the atlantic i think because the uncertanty of the weakness in genral of the market and accountentcy problems the usa as and the effect of the dollar dropping is taking every thing down and i think pure panic as set in i am in for the long term as i think the results will be surprisingly good and although there might be no run up as expected i do see the share price rising after the results

[superpete] 20/7/2002 16:45

Intention of waiting for results and therefore,yet to take a position in Danka.As 50p target price not achieved, get the impression that uncertainty creeping in and the closer investors get to Q1 results the less confident people are.Eeerie lull before the storm friday,with no-one rushing to buy.In current poor earnings season there is the possible risk that in the event of issuing poor results,Danka may get slaughtered back down to sub 20p. Before that have a couple of weeks to live through with possibility of a heavy sell off on both sides of the Atlantic come Monday.Share price has fallen below critical 38p support level in the US.There is for the first time, the very real possibility of share price dropping to sub 30p.The irony of our two shorters on this thread,namely forfaiter & blackbear (affectinately k/a ff & bb), who have both gone long @33p & 38p respectively, being shorted, is not lost on me.aimho.

Want to be convinced.What are peoples short term expectations for Danka/Danky from now to immediately after results,should investors be considering buying in now on weakness and if so at what levels.Or should they wait post results?

TIA

[blackbear] 20/7/2002 12:48

chesnuts ,the mm.s rarely mess around, they are reacting to buy /sells on the day most of the time,at this valuation i dought they have much interest themselves.
mm,s very rarely take advantage of situations, examples: stock overhang, new issues, rights issues etc. none apply to donkey, 9/10 times mm,s know no more about a companies prospects than us wee investors, they can guess because they know whos selling and buying but thats as far as it goes.


blackbear.

[forfaiter] 20/7/2002 00:52

We have a trade....must be Oakyhead finally cutting his losses...

[chestnuts] 19/7/2002 22:25

I think the mm are pulling some strings

[sigora] 19/7/2002 21:03

Damn share.

[ambabe] 19/7/2002 19:53

lex, don't normally do the right thing, but have learnt alot from you guys, thanks!!!

Actually thought it may end up in US but @ $2.29 can't see it now, was going to buy 1st thing Monday, will have to have a rethink!!

Have a Good weekend! (it's a dangerous game)!!