Dana Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[nigelpm] 17/9/2010 14:09

game over i suspect.

[milacs] 17/9/2010 13:29

Well you must have top sliced in 2008 and the share price then fell to 750p so I guess the only answer is YES.

M

[phillis] 17/9/2010 13:13

Milacs
I said I topsliced - should have done the lot eh?

[edmondj] 17/9/2010 13:04

They won't buy more than 29.9% as this would change the bid timetable.

Most likely it's Schroders and hedge fund arbs who were only here for the quickest turn possible.

If they reached 75% they would keep the offer open to allow dissenters scope to re-think and tender their shares, a cancellation can take place no earlier than 20 business days after the offer is declared unconditional.

If the published balance of trades is reliable, traders are still throwing money at the offer price - more so than the sellers.

Obviously the big boys' sales will take time to be declared.

I have yet to get a confirmed sense, what level is required for KNOC to go unconditional as it can vary from 75% but is not stated in their offer document.

[2006stocktaker] 17/9/2010 12:54

only 29.5? ..... So where is the much trumpeted 50%

[lobby ludd] 17/9/2010 12:47

KNOC have just announced (12.30 today) that they now have 29.5% acceptances.

[shabbadabbadoo2] 17/9/2010 12:39

What happens if they get under 90% acceptance, and so cannot compulsorily purchase your shares?

They would (presumably) de-list if they get 75%, so there would be no market, but how would a shareholder be kept involved?

[lobby ludd] 17/9/2010 12:22

Am holding out....and going down with the captain (TC) and the ship

[edmondj] 17/9/2010 12:12

adam,

As stated above, if and when the offer goes unconditional, there is 14 days again to accept the offer.

Barclays indicated to me, 14 days likewise to receive funds (after offer goes unconditional).

Anyway I am backing the management than worry over a week or so, to receive cash, one can sell in the market close to the offer price if need be.

[thegreatgeraldo] 17/9/2010 11:57

Looks like FTA may have been right for once! Schroders have offloaded 10.5 mill shares this morning

[adam] 17/9/2010 11:56

If someone hasn't accepted the offer, should they wait for their shares to be compulsory purchased or sell in the market? How long will it take for the cash to come in once it goes unconditional?

[7bore] 17/9/2010 11:56

Take a look at Cadogan Petroleum (CAD). Big re-rating just begun.

NAV = 39.1p (£90m) + current share price = 20.75/21.25. (£48m)

No debt.
Profitable.
Current Net Production approx 500 boepd
Cash at hand = £26.4m (27/08/10)
Cash due VERY imminently = $37.5m (min)Mkt Cap £48m (20.75/21.25)




Hardman & Co Research Note
23 Aug 10

"The receivables of $37.5m and cash at bank of £29.3 (27/04/10) and our NPV of 2P Reserves of $42.2m combine with this additional cash flow to provide a new NPV of £91.4m (46.7p/sh)"....."We should remind readers that this still excludes the value of assets that remain under the farm-out process."

www.oilbarrel.com article
August 27, 2010


Hardman & Co Research Note
14 Sep 10

"The receivables of $37.5m and cash at bank (minus settlement fee of $3.2m) of £23.2 and our NPV for 2P Reserves of $42.2m combine with cash flow to provide an NPV of £90.3m (39.1p/sh)"

[milacs] 17/9/2010 11:43

Phillis

You claimed to have sold yours at £19+.

If so why not just move on?

M

[thegreatgeraldo] 17/9/2010 11:38

Why is it in these days of electronic holdings that some brokers seem to want 5 or 6 working days notice of acceptance of the offer?

[dougdig] 17/9/2010 11:28

I think now is the time for strong nerves and support for TC - for me it is no deal!
Could do with some Churchillian rhetoric now ....

[phillis] 17/9/2010 11:15

EJ

Perhaps you could get TC a late entry into Gordon Brown's belated honous list (if Harriet H will permit it)

This one is gone I am afraid and the market is telling it in no uncertain terms
Time to move on to pastures new

[2006stocktaker] 17/9/2010 11:02

With my broker, I needed to make my decision today and i've made it. I'm holding on.

I may be whistling in the wind, but maybe KNOC haven't got the acceptences they'd hoped for. I think something like 25% of the commitments were from CFD holders, if I remember rightly, who may not be able to deliver.

There seems to be a lot of worry that those who don't accept may lose out, this is not true. Sure, this decision may cause me some hastle with my broker, as it did with my Venture holding, but the more who hold out now, the greater chance of a higher bid.

[zingaro] 17/9/2010 10:35

from FT Alphaville

"We are hearing KNOC and its advisers Merrill Lynch swept the market for a 29.9 per cent stake in Dana Petroleum on Friday morning. The trades haven't printed yet but they will.

Merrill is believed to have bought stock from shareholders who had already pledged to back KNOC's £18 per share offer for the oil explorer.

KNOC had letters of intent from 48.6 per cent of Dana's shareholders to accept the offer, which put them in a very strong position to close the deal.

By acquiring stock on Friday it has reaffirmed its to commitment to the deal and signalled that it wants to complete the acquisition of Dana as soon as possible. The reason Dana didn't buy more shares – ie go above 30 per cent – is that it would have triggered a mandatory offer and that would have reset the takeover timetable.

Shares in Dana are up 4p at £17.91 at pixel time."

[edmondj] 17/9/2010 10:24

dougdig

Agreed. With the help of rising oil prices, TC has taken this share from about 200p to 2000p plus, intrinsic value in less than ten years, compared with a paltry mid-teen percentage figure for Schroder's benchmark UK equity fund over ten years. Certainly he's enjoyed a bumper remuneration package, but how many other CEO's is it possible to cite in UK plc, who have delivered anywhere near this to investors via 'buy and hold'?

Give the man more time, most likely all efforts will be underway for a counter offer. Even if it doesn't appear, TC deserves shareholders' goodwill at this crux moment.

[milacs] 17/9/2010 10:21

dougdip

I agree with you and have noticed the number of new posters advocating selling the shares.

Wonder why?

M

[spob] 17/9/2010 10:18

Blimey, 25 posts to read - i thought there was some news :)


I suggest you all lobby government to change the rules regarding new shareholder voting rights during bid situations

Up yours hedge funds

[dougdig] 17/9/2010 10:03

It is certainly not over yet and IMHO there should be no rush to accept the KNOC bid - TC and the Dana Board have not recommended acceptance and I wait with interest to see the developments over the next few days.
It may well be that the Board finally recommend acceptance - but it is equally possible they may not!
I do not like the scaremongering that is creeping in here now. I am with TC and will follow his recommendation to the very end - he clearly thinks the company is worth more than this cheeky £18 per share. I certainly have no wish to undermine his negotiating possibilities by caving in at this vital stage. He did not get where he is today without a fairly tough skin and excellent business acumen. I reckon he has earned and deserves our support.
Again, just my view - no advice intended etc.

[emptyend] 17/9/2010 08:40

Edmond,
As I said yesterday, I don't like it and I don't think it is right - but UNLESS an offer turns up out of the blue and stops the instos and hedgies accepting on the 23rd then KNOC will be over the 50%.
I am not in denial about that...the writing is on the wall in great big letters. Anyone who thinks they might want to bid would surely be on the table by now, rather than trying to stick their oar in just before the 23rd.
Schroeders and the hedgies will determine who (virtually certain to be KNOC) gets over 50%....it won't be the private investors. But the private investors may have some influence on exactly when the 75% threshold is passed.

For whatever reason, the company has "lost". The only influence that AM can have is if there is enough news to prompt a late higher offer (which is v unlikely but in that case the hedgies and institutions will switch their allegiance, KNOC's offer won't go unconditional and other investors can then rescind and switch - if I've correctly understood the defence doc comments).

Dana lost its independence as soon as the big shareholders sided with KNOC and the hedgies arrived en masse. The choice that will face the hedgies looks simple - accept the £18 or try to find where the institutional bid is for size. That is a no-brainer.

I'm out away from the boards today - but I doubt anything will change (even though I'd expect an AM update early next week if DNX are in ANY position to make one!).

ee