Dana Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[dougdig] 21/9/2010 13:28

I suppose we have to expect dodgy tactics - how sad can they get!
I do hope the Regulatory authorities are keeping a close eye on this one - there is a distinctly bad odour surrounding some of the recent antics and the scaremongering tirades concerning this share.
KNOC think that at £18 they will get a bargain. But DANA's defence document and todays information in EdmondJ's Post 13446 have to be taken seriously and clearly demonstrate a far higher fair value.
Well, KNOC are clearly opportunists - they are not getting my shares until such time as TC and the Board so recommend. And that will be at a much better price than £18.
I am hanging on!
(All IMHO, of course - and no advice intended etc)

[haydock] 21/9/2010 13:26

Only to look at the price rise on NPE today to get some idea of the efect that a successful well could have on the Dana price, if they are still in play.

Up over 35% on the day, what would be the effect of A.M, on the Dana price, up no doubt, but above £18 ?

[deswalker] 21/9/2010 13:15

This share has been very good to me over the years but I haven't held for quite a while.

For years I ran the numbers on Interims and Prelims days and they always disappointed. I just don't think these North Sea assets throw off the cash that some people think, and I don't believe the NAV estimates of the various brokers are anything other than finger-in-the-air stuff. It is a total black box for anyone to value on an NPV basis as I'm sure many of you realise.

IMO £18 is a good price FWIW. I'm sure others will disagree and wish to place their faith in Tom Cross and the gang, but personally I think he is over-egging the pudding at anything much more than the current level. But at least he tried I suppose ...

My 2p.

[colsmith] 21/9/2010 13:01

One wonders why with such a drilling plan large holders are aparentlty so keen to sell out; I suppose its the old bird in the hand unless they're on toast and need the cash.

[emptyend] 21/9/2010 12:44

OK Edmond...NOW you can get paranoid. The entire article and our comments has now been removed from Citywire and isn't even accessible by searching for Buxton or Dana.
Accordingly I have left this message for them:

This morning there was a short piece published on Citywire about Schroders' sale of most of their stake in Dana. It attracted a couple of comments that criticised Schroders' actions and has since been removed from your website.

Why is that please? Is Citywire being censored whenever its advertisers are criticised?

I imagine that will be equally unwelcome - but at least we now know for sure that Citywire isn't a supporter of free speech......hence I will in future regard their whole site as advertising that isn't to be trusted.

[jimbob] 21/9/2010 11:52

Thanks EdmondJ It turns out i still need to use snailmail

[edmondj] 21/9/2010 11:13

Indeed it works off that link but not off the front page, which is what most will look at. Not to be vain, just fed up with the slanted comment and now, celebration of Buxton! Thanks for making your own points there.

[emptyend] 21/9/2010 10:47

Edmond - you seem to be looking at an outdated page.

Click on the link from here:

...and remember that not everyone is "out to get you" ;-)

[edmondj] 21/9/2010 10:28

Registrars:

[jimbob] 21/9/2010 10:15

Could sombody please help me out.I found a few of these on certificate that i bought in 1996 but they are registered to a previous address.Who do i contact to change my address? Or can a change of address form be downloaded nowadays?..tia

[edmondj] 21/9/2010 09:55

Looks a blank space underneath now:



Still, much else happening in the sector to engage!

[emptyend] 21/9/2010 09:52

I don't think it has been pulled - I read it before I posted and it is still there.

It is a technical point (though apparently within the Takeover rules) but Buxton and others who sold to KNOC for £18 last week have been able to sell at 7-8p more than anyone else has (since KNOC confirmed they wouldn't pay for a recommendation). Accordingly they have got better terms than were available to ordinary shareholders.

I think Buxton's support was always based on an opportunistic attempt to improve the flagging performance of his funds - if you look at the performance stats for it on the Citywire site, you'll see he had a 2%+ underperformance vs the "average" in the first half of the year - and has only recently recouped that:

[edmondj] 21/9/2010 09:38

emptyend,

Your remarks on Citywire re. Buxton have been e-mailed to me and doubtless others.

I posted this earlier underneath the article but my comment was promptly pulled:



Richard Buxton and Schroders have undermined the Dana board's negotiating position in this takeover, by his repeatedly asserting in the press that £18 a share is a 'full and fair' offer. He was saying this even before the company had issued its defence document.

Logically it doesn't add up because the Koreans have reserved the right to increase their offer should a competitive third party bid arise, and are urgent to close the deal, therefore they do see value at £18.

From Dana's announcement today regarding Mauritania, also a well offshore the Faroes, unrisked upside on these two high-impact wells has been estimated at £5.85 a share. Call it 'jam tomorrow' if you like but earlier this year Goldman Sachs favoured Dana in the sector targeting £21.50 on a risked basis, arguing the city was not respecting the 2011 drilling programme.

Buxton and Schroders have not been such long shareholders as to capture the full benefit of investing in Dana on a 5 to 10-year view; most of the stake was accumulated relatively recently - and to give respect, shrewdly - nearer to £12 a share. But they do a great disservice to private shareholders, putting this company into play at a most dynamic stage of development - also triggering (increased) capital gains tax which institutions do not incur.

On a genuine long-term view, Dana has delivered a share price increase from about 150p ten years ago, with an internal rate of return around 20 per cent, which compares with Schroder UK equity funds delivering 10.5pc on a five year view and 17pc on a ten-year view. Little wonder they need a boost to peformance by creating a takeover for Dana.

The Dana management has delivered substantial wealth for me and other long-termers; however I don't think I'll be re-allocating it to the Schroder managers.


edit:

It now looks as if your comment has been pulled along with mine.

If you look to the RHS of the Citywire webpage, there is a whopping advert from Schroders.

Surprise surprise...

[edmondj] 21/9/2010 09:34

I thought I read they can only apply to a Court to delist once they have 90pc.

Still the buying apparently continues too, price edging up slightly, I can't see the (arbitrage) appeal unless for a white knight.

[adda] 21/9/2010 09:32

tks Emptyend have just sold half my holding will wait now

[emptyend] 21/9/2010 09:10

Delisting becomes a risk once they get over 75%. Basically it won't happen for 20 days after than point and KNOC will announce details etc (see p12 of the offer document)

[adda] 21/9/2010 09:05

I know this question has been covered in detail but could someone pls explain to me in laymans terms ! I am a CFD holder in DNX am happy to hold and see what Anne Marie's potentail is. What exactly happens after the 23rd? What I dont want to do is get stuck in a period if they delist waiting to be paid out. At what point would this potentially happen? Thank you & well done to all 18.00 or more I'm happy with.

[edmondj] 21/9/2010 07:28

Aspect of surprise from the Faroe Petroleum interims, I thought AM was BEING drilled right now:


Outlook
* Exciting drilling programme targeting 5 wells per year, with current 7 firm
and 7 expected wells scheduled up to 2012, including 8 in Norway, 5 in the
Atlantic Margin and 1 in UK North Sea
* Anne Marie and Lagavulin wells to be drilled in the Atlantic Margin in the
second half of this year





edit: yes, started drilling 26 July, looks slack of FPM here.

[edmondj] 21/9/2010 07:25

But KNOC has repeatedly declared its £18 offer as full and final, *save for a competitive third party bid situation arising*. It will be interesting to see, what is the integrity of such announcements and their dependability.

Logically, KNOC's offer cannot be 'full', it and Merrill Lynch continue to see value, otherwise they just would not include the asterisked caveat! Nor would they be so determined to close the deal.

[khanittag] 21/9/2010 00:44

EdmondJ - 20 Sep'10 - 11:31 - 13430 of 13437
Looks to be Morgan Stanley on the larger buy side, via CFD's.


My info from TDW last week said that those who accepted the £18 offer by the 23rd would not then be able to take advantage of any increased KNOC offer should they fall short of securing enough shares in this first salvo. I would like to think that this wasn't complete rubbish but time will tell. If Morgan Stanley are still keen buyers (and not on behalf of KNOC) then what are the possibilities of them having an influence on an increased offer from KNOC given that they may be approached directly as other institutions were previously for pledges? Increasing the offer for a significantly smaller amount of share holders & holdings would still represent good value overall. I remain a hold on these to the death i hope that enough other investors have some balls to do the same and see how KNOC responds.

[jojo_jo] 21/9/2010 00:39

I don't understand all this nonsense about 'de-listing' or 'not having a bid'?
If the sale goes through, all holders get the £18.00. You don't have to do anything, unless you want the money a bit sooner. The broker will submit your electronically held shares, and drop the cash into your account. No dealing costs either, usually. It will be different for CFD holders of course. I don't get all the panic! Unless you need the money I suggest holding on - rival bids have come in later than this before now. Most of the 'irrevocable offers' have get out clauses in the event of a higher bid, and I don't know who bought the bulk of Schroder's holding or how much ACTUAL stock KNOC have bought (if any). I'm just going to hold, as the market is due a correction, and I can't see any safer place for the cash right now.

[solomon9] 20/9/2010 22:29

Great that when points are made, no one can offer any answers, if co was worth so much why was it £11 before the offer?

Fact is no other offer....if there was going to be one would have emerged by now. Dana's bluff has been called.

Why not look at other opportunities cos this is the end of the road for Dana. Encore/ Premier Oil, BP is a takeover opportunity.

And by the way I am not working for KNOC just pointing out that this is a very good offer and there is no point dreaming about higher offers cos the compay ain't worth more money. If you think it is then you have got suckered into the board's ego trip.

[edmondj] 20/9/2010 18:24

tgg,

They were also whinging about decommissioning costs.

Is the Osborne who makes these critiques, via Merrill Lynch, at all related to the Osborne who dishes them out via The Telegraph?

They both appear to sing from a similar oriental hymn sheet.

[dougdig] 20/9/2010 16:54

....so quiet at the mo...

[emptyend] 20/9/2010 16:03

...funny that.....