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DNX Dana Petroleum

1,799.00
0.00 (0.00%)
Last Updated: 00:00:00
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Dana Petroleum LSE:DNX London Ordinary Share GB0033252056 ORD 15P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 1,799.00 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Dana Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

Showing 13601 to 13625 of 13850 messages
Chat Pages: 554  553  552  551  550  549  548  547  546  545  544  543  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
17/9/2010
07:18
So you are effectively suggesting, ('I don't think one loses') capitulate now, because that raises the chance of tidying the matter up quickly (offer declared unconditional, 14 days for cash) than give the company a bit more time to see if it can find a white knight, possibly with initial AM results to boot?

How a minority of investors acts (or not) in the next few days may be rather influential on that!

edmondj
17/9/2010
07:07
Re 13378

I, like edmondj, see no advantage in accepting the offer. I am planning to decline the offer and want the flexibility to take advantage of any increased offer or to trade the stock to release funds more quickly.
Does anyone know when the news flow from KNOC will have to declare the extent of offer acceptance as at the 23rd of September deadline and thereafter?

I don't see any chance at all that they will fail to get 50% on the 23rd (unless there is a surprise better offer, in which case one would be able to rescind acceptances if KNOC don't declare their own offer unconditional by the 14th - per DNX defence document). However, if they get 75% by the 23rd then everyone would get their cash out earlier, because they would then declare it unconditional (and the 14 days payment to the nominee would apply).....so in practice I don't think one loses by accepting at this point.

The other approach is to sell in the market, per Lanaken's comments....but whether that is better than waiting depends on whether the cash would burn a hole in your pocket and be immediately deployed elsewhere (on lanaken's stock-du-jour ;-))

emptyend
17/9/2010
06:34
Dday,

Get your money out and deal with the challenge of where to place the funds. Thereby not missing out on opportunities to considerably enhance that cash pile by looking at companies e.g.

with 40% of a potential 300m+ bbl OIP NS find that is currently sidetracing downdip and results known within 10 days I reckon. If these results continue at the higher end of expectations, well they have twice so far, yóu could double your money within weeks. This company has excellent longer term prospects too.

Or continue to focus on the past, moan about instos and consider ideas that you did not think of yourself as 'punts' and find spurious reasons for not investing in them.

I have the analyst's reports for the above quoted OIP number. It is not something I made up.

repobear

lanaken
17/9/2010
06:18
"After then it is possible that KNOC could increase or reduce the offer from the £18 accepted by others already in order to secure the rest of the stock until offer goes unconditional. At which point the remaining investors may be offered peanuts."

That strikes me as wrong, from TD Waterhouse.

1. KNOC has declared its full and final offer at £18, barring a competitive situation arising.

2. However can there be deemed to be a regulated UK takeover environment if shareholders receive varying amounts according to the offeror's whim? 'Being offered peanuts' is putting a false scare on people.


Would agree on the sentiment of caution re. getting funds from a Korean company however I think there is meant to be 14 days after going unconditional in all respects - or to be specific, 14 days delivery to your nominee.

edmondj
16/9/2010
21:52
I was right as usual - not getting bid higher
hiq
16/9/2010
21:46
I spoke to TDW today and was told 20th for voting "yes" with default of "no" as earlier poster said. I was told that there would probably be the two week extension to the KNOC offer. After then it is possible that KNOC could increase or reduce the offer from the £18 accepted by others already in order to secure the rest of the stock until offer goes unconditional. At which point the remaining investors may be offered peanuts. The other downside to acceptng the offer is that the funds may not be released back to investors for months from Korea to the UK. Apparently, a recent share issue in china 3 or so months ago has still not seen stock returned to UK investors according to TDW.

I, like edmondj, see no advantage in accepting the offer. I am planning to decline the offer and want the flexibility to take advantage of any increased offer or to trade the stock to release funds more quickly.
Does anyone know when the news flow from KNOC will have to declare the extent of offer acceptance as at the 23rd of September deadline and thereafter?

khanittag
16/9/2010
18:31
Thanks, my views exactly.
mpilot
16/9/2010
18:16
Yes. Although there should still be 14 days to accept the offer formally, after it is declared unconditional (say if 75% acceptances on the 23rd).

If you dissent thereafter then there will probably be a delay.

I see no benefit currently to accepting, than give KNOC and its advisers the kudos to break open champagne.

edmondj
16/9/2010
18:09
Am I right in thinking that even if you do not "accept", and don't sell on the open market; when the takeover is approved, you will still get the £18 a share from KNOC, although at their timetable rather than promptly.

Thanks.

mpilot
16/9/2010
17:52
As I understand it the first voting deadline is for us to approve (or not)the Petro Canada assets purchase and with TDW this has a deadline of 21 September.
I also understand the KNOC offer has an acceptance deadline of 23 September. If you wish to accept you have to positively indicate to TDW your preference before their deadline which may be a day or two earlier than 23 September. If you choose not to accept KNOC you need do nothing at this stage.
I do not know if other brokers require a definite "Yes" or "No" - TDW will take the lack of a "Yes" as a "No" so no action is needed if you are happy not to accept at the moment. As previously stated, if previous takeovers are anything to go by KNOC will probably allow a couple of weeks extension. So I reckon there is no rush to accept unless of course you wish to do so.
If I have any of this wrong perhaps someone will kindly correct me.
I am not accepting as I strongly feel we are worth quite a bit more than £18 per share - and I will certainly not be cowed by comments about bleating nor the unfair Press coverage which so blatantly takes the KNOC line. One wonders if such Press comment is so unfair as to warrant reporting to the PCC or FSA - it is certainly overly biased and in my view goes way beyond the standarda of impartial accurate and fair reporting we are entitled to see in our "Quality" publications.
All IMHO, of course and no advice intended.
Oh - and I reserve the right to continue bleating should I wish!
Baaah!

dougdig
16/9/2010
17:30
Call it noise if you like but the hedge fund players will be reflecting carefully on what all this implies for the state of the game, for when they next alight on an oil company.

Not inclined to accept before the 23rd otherwise lose flexibility to trade besides being a poor last stand for a management that has made long-termers serious money!

edmondj
16/9/2010
17:02
Interesting article about AWG takeover (includes deals on some takeover rules)
such as squeeze out at 90%, blocking at 75%

ianst99
16/9/2010
16:20
Monday with some brokers
thegreatgeraldo
16/9/2010
16:14
this is all noise....lets take a vote...we all have nomine accounts with brokers....tomorrow's D-Day.....

I don't like it but I'm going to have to take it...I will vote for the take-over tommorrow.....

rumblefish
16/9/2010
15:15
£18 a share is in some respects unfair but I concede, if the industry does not come forward with a better offer then it is quite a verdict that the Dana management has not created a sufficiently compelling portfolio of assets.

I think that may be a bit simplistic. There is a big difference between having a set of assets that appeal to a LARGE number of buyers and a set of assets that are compelling to only a small number.
I would never contend that Dana's asset package would appeal to a large number of buyers (unlike, for example, individual large assets that are already in production), but I must say that I thought there would be enough competition.

There are two alternative conclusions:
1) All the other buyers had looked at it already and decided not to buy for reasons unconnected to the price (such as portfolio fit) or
2) It wasn't cheap enough to encourage others to bid against KNOC
...or some combination of the two.

It may never be clear which applies.

emptyend
16/9/2010
15:02
£18 a share is in some respects unfair but I concede, if the industry does not come forward with a better offer then it is quite a verdict that the Dana management has not created a sufficiently compelling portfolio of assets. Selling the business has always been the ultimate game plan and the timing of takeover approaches rarely suits shareholders. Even so, there ought to be rival suitors if management has thought out and executed, how best to position this group to deliver long-term value.
edmondj
16/9/2010
14:43
A UK company with exploration rights, and a commitment to the UK economy.

They could come good, or be a duster, butthat's a chance I and others have been taking over the years, I still feel a £19.50/£20 price would be fairer, and a £22/23 range achieveable.

Good luck to all in their decision making.

mpilot
16/9/2010
14:32
and the longer term picture is?
phillis
16/9/2010
14:26
Well said EE.

A great shame, no-ones taking the time to seriously consider the longer term picture. The city is soooo short-termist.

I believe a Company is being sold out once again.

mpilot
16/9/2010
14:20
Yes - we're down to hair-splitting here, but KNOC winning the bid without being challenged by a third party isn't incompatible with them having got a bargain. Just because The City, in its infinite wisdom, chooses to sell the company out against the advice of the management does not mean that it is the right thing to do. IMO the major shareholders have been too quick to take their profits in this case (and, more pertinently, have actually cut the ground from under management and the wider shareholder body by rolling over at the earliest possible opportunity).
I don't like it. I don't think it is right. And I think it will prove to have been stupid in a year or two's time. But I can't ignore the fact that the institutions and hedge funds have clearly got control of the situation....and the result will be that they deliver KNOC a bargain, IMO.

emptyend
16/9/2010
14:19
I in no way have even the slightest ability to influence the outcome, however Schroder, in making such a repeated firm case for £18, led KNOC to believe it could entrench and get enough shareholders to toe the line. Most likely they will, simply because they don't want to risk any short-term downside from £18.

'Behavioural finance' is the latest fashion in economics; with justification!

As the Korean analyst has implied in the above article, the Keynesian 'replacement value' for Dana's assets (i.e. create again, from scratch) would require substantially more than £1.8bn.

edmondj
16/9/2010
14:09
Not exactly - assuming the bid succeeds, we'll find out in a few years' time whether KNOC got a bargain or not.
thegreatgeraldo
16/9/2010
14:02
I don't see it that way at all

They have their opinion just as you have yours - which you have certainly expressed.
Anybody seriously interested - and it appears there isn't anyone else - would be quite relaxed in entering the arena knowing that Schroders would immediately accept a higher price

We saw the same thing with Venture.
Institutions recognised a good price when it was offered whilst management and the small shareholder kept bleating it wasn't enough.

We shall soon know for sure

phillis
16/9/2010
12:28
Yes they 'call' it a lot, from across the UK to Korean press!

My feeling is that, if they had kept their mouth shut instead of keep repeating £18 is a fair price (even before the defence doc) then Dana's board would have stood a better chance of negotiating a premium.

Their action only makes sense to me, in order to get the company sold ASAP.

edmondj
16/9/2010
12:11
Presumably Schroders call it as they see it
Looks like they were right

phillis
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