Cybit Share Discussion Threads

[naisy2] 08/12/2009 17:45

Hi
Just fallen heir to 70k of Cybit shares, last few days look scary, should ikeep
or sell any advice much appreciated
many thanks

[sdavis] 08/12/2009 16:47

Any further delay in the results will spook people more and the share price will continue the downward drift. I hope we are not talking fund raising!

[sll] 08/12/2009 09:54

in no small measure due to you and Sanity, tehart. as you say, it does feel like we're 'sharing and learning' - which 'was' the idea before we were flooded with (shall we say) those of 'doubtful motives'. steve

[tehart] 08/12/2009 09:07

ok guys ... I am out voted :-) ... and have gained new knowledge.

Thanks for opinions/insight ..... this is almost likea real BB these days

[sll] 08/12/2009 08:57

think you're right on that sd. this is most likely possible 'bolt on' action being sought by CYH.

[sdavis] 08/12/2009 07:51

Teehart

I am with CM on this one. I do not see them moving in-house leasing to external factoring. I am sure it would be possible but is not in line with their strategy.

Delay is not to do with a bid for CYH as this would need to be announced as soon as it was received (I think).

[tehart] 08/12/2009 07:33

Nice explanation CM. Agree that for this set of results any changes to factoring etc 'may' be difficult if not impossible.

I still feel there must be some flexible provisions for factoring contracts for CYH. At the end of the day why would CYH not want that flexibility, and as a provider why wouldn't the factoring company want to provide it. This could be for contract renewnals, expansions etc when the original contract was not factored. Contract splits between factoring and lease book at will.
Who's to say there isn't an arrangement to factor the leasebook itself ??
No real idea how this actually works but just floating the idea of flexible financing that I am sure CYH have in place...one way or the other.

As CYH are expanding organically and through acquisition how can they know what acquisitions costs may be needed in the future.... hence my reasoning for flexible finance arrangements.

Just my thoughts, I don't see any of the possibilities above as a negative but feel to hit the fiures on the nose as they do while expanding through acquisition cannot be luck.

t

[sll] 07/12/2009 20:45

Thanks CM, Tehart and Sanity, great posts, great content. steve

[sanity] 07/12/2009 19:34

(Relaunch) Cybit launches enhanced Data Analyser Reporting suite for Fleetstar-Online vehicle tracking solution

[cheshiremoggie] 07/12/2009 19:03

The contract system has been covered before here and at AGMs in the past.

But to explain further.....

The results we are expecting cover the period March to Sept 09. Take a contract signed on the 1st March - 9months ago.

If that contract is factored then a percentage of the contract total fee is paid by the factoring company straight away in March. That is cash in the bank. you cant suddenly say you are taking the contract in house as you have received the cash for it from the factoring company up to 9 months ago!

For a contract that you decide to take in-house on the 1st March, you have to pay out set up costs and the company starts paying you income. To suddenly try to reassign the contract to a factoring company months later, may be possible I guess but it would be a bit wierd. The factoring company also might get rather suspicious. In any case, if you assigned the existing contract to the factoring company TODAY, the revenue received from the factors would appear in the current year, not the period we are waiting for.

Once an accounting period has finished, the options for fiddling with the contracts are pretty limited. I cant see any way to do it.

The accounts will be pretty much fixed now. The delay could have one of several reasons, from wanting to complete the formalities for an acquisition to being in trouble. I cant see that they will be in too much trouble as the business appears to be pretty steady. I've been wrong before though.

An RNS of some sort would certainly be useful.

CM.

[tehart] 07/12/2009 17:28

Thanks CM ....I was never sure that was the case.
How do you know ? Was this covered at an AGM ?

[cheshiremoggie] 07/12/2009 16:31

Just one point, Cybit cant manipulate their lease book retrospectively. A contract is either taken in house or financed externally at the time. It cant be changed afterwards as the contract is already set up.

CM.

[sll] 07/12/2009 13:19

Sanity - don't see the maiden div (if any) coming in till the full year - at the earliest. Agree with SD, it is more likely to be some form of 'bolt-on' acquisition that they are trying to conclude, and then co-announce. Could be wrong. Also, it is not in my view axiomatic that a small-ish acquisition would require any new equity, at all, although of course it might. If that was marginal, I sense that L&G or some such player (L&G are already on board, after all) might stump up within the Directors' AGM equity issuance sanction, or indeed the vendor might take an element of consideration in paper - as has been done in the past. Whatever, it should not be beyond Cenkos Securities and this Board to drum up some reasonably priced funding just to balance the gearing safely. I would see that as a less of worry, on their past record and known capabilities, than concluding whatever commercials are being discussed. How funny if, after all this debate here, the results just pop out (in line) with no corporate action whatseover. Who knows?

[sanity] 07/12/2009 13:01

Without wishing to scare monger, experience tells me that 9 times out of 10 fundraising via a placing is the reason. I am sure any placing would be for an acquisition, though it would have to be a rather large one to warrant it. That being said, perhaps there are some lose end to tie up to enable a maiden dividend.

[sdavis] 07/12/2009 12:01

Personally I think it doubtful that it is to do with an order as this does not impact the results. More likely just later than normal or some corporate action. Interesting times.

[sll] 07/12/2009 11:09

interesting thought, tehart, but I slightly doubt it, just a wee bit. With MPS, its their finals to august (with auditors involved etc and I would presume less flexibility) whereas Cybit's are 'just' interims (to September) and they may have a tad more flexibility at the margin, but maybe not as much as you suggest. all will be revealed....but we now simply don't know when,,,

[tehart] 07/12/2009 10:48

Maybe there is a mexican stand off with the 2 ....each waiting for the others results in order to manipulate their's accordingly for maximum exposure.
With the CYH leasebook they have exactly this flexibility

[sll] 07/12/2009 08:31

Thanks for flagging this possibility, H and Sanity. Neither have RNS'd today, so we'll just have to wait and see. Last year, the MPS finals were flagged towards end Nov, and announced on 4/12/9. We are only on 7/12/9, but it will begin to feel a tad odd if neither comes out with something, soonish. I am less knowledgeable on MPS, but feel sure that Cybit's silence must be attributable to something 'out of the ordinary' - whether MPS-related or ANother. BSL still want 37.88p per share for a 10k parcel, as of this morning - same as Friday's pre-close offer. They will also bid 36.38p up to 15k but not offer at the 15k level. Feels relatively tight and illiquid. steve

[sanity] 06/12/2009 23:05

The thought had crossed my mind to. But I am sure there would have seen some share activity in MPS and/or CYH. Such merger would have been difficult to keep quiet. I plump for results being announced either Monday or Tuesday this week. MPS will be cheaper once they are in administration then Cybit will have the pick of the best bits.

[davidosh] 06/12/2009 18:47

There is probably a large contract with a cash delivery security firm such as Securicor about to be signed. Not for the roll out of our kit into the vans but for the monthly delivery of the directors huge salaries under special guard ...lol

Something returned to shareholders would be nice !!

[singinsmythe] 06/12/2009 17:17

Got to be a corporate action of some kind or we'd have had notice of results already, my money's on an announcement this week.

[sll] 05/12/2009 15:43

Craig, just lost a longer post, which vanished! So v quick resume. Two broker share price targets are 'out there': 53p (Cenkos - the house broker) and 56p (hoodless & brennan) both being undemanding, in my view, providing 'business as usual' progress continues here, nothing too stellar required, or likely, in my view. Anything above 'in line results to FY2010' could support a higher rating, but I doubt we'll get there too quickly. Given the prospectively low-ish PE etc, and dividend prospects, neither share price target would require fireworks to be achieved, so long as results continue to be both solid and progressive - with maybe 1 or 2 more bolt-on acquisitions within 12 to 18 months. The share price has been down (with AIM) and is recovering (with AIM) - albeit that share price recovery has stalled of late, mainly due to the wider market flattening out, and to slow-running interims. Why are the interim results slow? In my view, because of corporate action, of some sort, on or by, Cybit. Otherwise we would have been updated by now. No hype, no ramp, just the considered views of a material holder of some 5+ years. steve

[acky37] 05/12/2009 10:54

I'm no expert but i would say that this stock is heavily underpriced does anyone agree/disagree and what would be your opinion of a fair price? I would give a price myself but i am not qualified to do so, this is the only stock that i own and i bought way back when the shares had gone from .25 to 1.23 that is when i bought they then went above 4 and i didn't sell, silly me, and they crashed back down to less than i payed for them. I think the shares were then exchanged 50/1 meaning at todays prices i would be even at around 60p. I'm still hoping for that big surge in share price to come back, surely they should be worth more than this, any views much appreciated cheers Craig

[ghtt] 04/12/2009 23:47

Trimble are a $3bn market cap company. If they really push into the UK, they will squash everyone in this sector. All the UK players are minnows by comparison.