Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[lwaxf13] 22/1/2018 21:14

I don't think anyone believes anything cyan says in regard to winning orders. I for one have not believed a word they say for quite some time. They could do a roaring trade in hot air if there was a market for it

Hands up all in favour of an options reprice to help the team? What about a reprice below the current stock price to make it easy peasy?

[threadworm] 22/1/2018 16:53

Yump:

"What's even funnier (or sadder) is that a firm of accountants ranked them highly in the fastest growing businesses, BY REVENUE NOT PROFIT. Reminder to self - don't use them for my accounts. How long will revenue count, if you haven't actually go it yet ?"

This report / award looks good on paper but look into it a little further and you'll see that the figures involved were very low....and yes based on turnover only.

Cyan had a very very very low turnover base in the previous period, which made their account of selling a bit of kit in the following year look all the more impressive (when viewed as a percentage increase).

There was nothing in it.

In reality, other Cambridge companies probably made better ground, but by the way the award was fashioned, it threw a misleading light in my opinion.

And of course the 'award' was well padded out with hot air, as usual, from the BOD.

The much lauded order book is meaningless and pure vanity unless it's ever actually delivered / monetised. And as we learnt in early January, there is slippage. Meanwhile here in the uk, the smart meter roll out is probably up for review.

[threadworm] 22/1/2018 16:41

yump...

what is even more astonishing is that FD Simon Smith, whined those words several months AFTER the placing. Given CYAN must be burning approx £1m a month or thereabouts and STILL had not proven any decent revenue, it makes his statement all the more alarming. It belies a more than relaxed /blaze attitude with regards to money raised via shareholders. 'We've only just stung you for more money, why are you dropping now?'.

'Better' than that though, look at the statement prior, regarding the directors LOWERING their recently announced options price.

Very badly handled.

The BOD seem as equally as clueless as to how that might damage sentiment.

'Best' of all though......note the very few days that passed between their apparent incedulity at the share price weakness (ie their statement about not knowing any reason for it) and the almost immediate announcement thereafter that a major payment on a contract had gone walkabout and that subsequently results would be significantly below expectations.

People trying to buy the stock now, are the underwater sellers of the future in my opinion.

Fool hardy to catch a falling knife.

Sorry John, but everything written is in my opinion and, without prejudice, of course.

[yump] 22/1/2018 16:29

Are the directors just clueless ?

What on earth is this from earlier:

"Having completed a GBP8.6M fund raise only three months ago and with customer payments on existing contracts now starting to flow, I was surprised to see the share price fall last week. I decided to again demonstrate my support to the Company, and our commitment to deliver a strong result for all shareholders, by purchasing more CyanConnode shares in the market."

So you raise £8.6mln with no promise of any profit in sight and you're surprised to see the share price fall ? Seriously ?

... and as for the flow of these contract payments - perhaps an update that actually details them might be good, seeing as they are presumably positive in CYAN's book ?

Oh, but hang on, the recent statement said there is a problem with payment...

I simply can't believe what these people get away with. How on earth do they manage to raise £8.6 mln ? It beggars belief.

What's even funnier (or sadder) is that a firm of accountants ranked them highly in the fastest growing businesses, BY REVENUE NOT PROFIT. Reminder to self - don't use them for my accounts. How long will revenue count, if you haven't actually go it yet ?

[threadworm] 22/1/2018 16:10

...And don't forget, provided the share price doesn't drop 'too' much, unlike the retail investor, John Cronin is, to a degree, 'insulated' from the placings, due to his 'payment' in shares throughout the year (his holding is constantly increasing, month in month out).

That might be seen as fair play, IF he wasn't also billing the company for 'consultancy fees' and bonuses - each of which, in the last signed off set of accounts, ran well into six figures.

That is extraordinarily good renumeration..........not so good if you're a retail investor.

Without prejudice and all in my opinion.

[threadworm] 22/1/2018 16:01

The market is finally waking up to the hard realities at CYAN.

Zero support coming in...(which there probably wouldn't have been before, had the BOD not made that announcement....some of which, in retrospect, feel was downright misleading).

Indeed, people who took the BOD at their word in December (when they announced that they knew of no reason for the share price fall) are now underwater.

I can see 15p falling in due course and, in time, the share price dropping to a single digit again.

People make the mistake of looking at the new consolidation price as some kind of benchmark as to what the companies correct valuation should be, but this is just nonsense. They are 'anchored' (correct psychological term in this instance - 'price-anchored') to that figure but the reality is, 27p never properly reflected the value of the business in the first place.

It's time for a sensible valuation on the reality of the business, not based on the hot air spouted by the BOD. This company has survived for over a decade on fundraising / dilution and has never delivered any significant revenue.

I expect the company to make an announcement about winning something or other in due course but whatever it is and however they dress it up, it isn't going involve enough hard cash, banked, to avoid yet another placing imo.

The business model, outside of asking the market for funds to remain as a going concern, is far from proven and as such it's high risk.

All without prejudice as ever and imo.

[dreamtwister] 22/1/2018 15:40

reminds me off a movie."one flew over the cuckoo`s nest" the rampers were out on parole walking around in right hand circles muttering "buy" when they bump into a shorter & quotes NO go left sell buy lower !the rampers are still walking around in circles muttering "great buying op @ this low price.

[lwaxf13] 20/1/2018 17:11

No money for dividends as no profit but fear not there will be money for well earned bonuses. We can't have the team living like paupers :-)

[dreamtwister] 19/1/2018 23:12

i suppose a dividend is out of the question !

[threadworm] 19/1/2018 19:09

escapetohome...yes..I was just thinking the same.

You could cut the mkt cap in half from here and going purely on facts, figures and fundamentals alone (and for once ignoring the rhetoric of the BOD) it still wouldn't look at all undervalued.

So..what to pay for a company (if you really must) which:

1) Last turned in a FY loss of almost £8 Million (FY 2015 £4.9 Million) and which..

2) ..in H1 of the year just gone has ALREADY turned in a loss of almost £5 Million. FY 2017 figures will be released soon and you could feasibly see the company making a £8 - 10 million pound loss. These figures are shocking and more in line with the results of a failing mining conglomerate, drilling in hostile geographies, not a company trying to get someone to buy a run of smart meters.

3) Has failed in it's 11 year history to achieve any significant revenues of note.

4) Is working in a inherently challenging, new and unreliable market where the parameters, in the broadest sense, are not well defined.

5) Whose flagship project, in a developed western market, is facing delays and is itself being challenged and investigated by the Government.

6) Whose pipeline of projects (awarded but not yet delivered) will only be monetised over a considerable period of time and finally...

7) A company that will almost certainly fail in near term to secure revenues sufficient to become self funded and will instead be back to the market for another cash call and so implying further significant dilution.

I would say £19M is a pretty generous mkt cap.

£10 Million ( 8p a share ) seems more realistic but even then, I wouldn't be in a rush.

Looking at the figures released, the cash must be going at the rate of c.£1M a month (?).

Considering the considerable R&D that has been done to date, that's just plain madness.

I really don't think the management are in the real world here. They must really have started to believe their own rhetoric I think. Certainly they seem not to have any concept of quite the journey retail investors have been on.

The lowering of the options for one was a clear sign that they're not in touch.

I genuinely do not like seeing PI's lose their shirts.....which is perhaps why I'm pointing all the above out. It's not at all about gloating but instead being realistic about the business, the risks and prospects. Waves and waves of naive PI's have been pulled in here and got burnt. John Cronin stated 5 YEARS ago that it's going to be a good future for investors. Patently this has not been the case.

I suspect other 'contracts' will arrive.......but the nature of CYAN's self-proclaimed business model implies that any revenues from these will not be immediately forthcoming but instead derived from licensing over many years into the future (ie the ARM model) And of the pipeline secured to date (some of which were won a good 18 months or so) we can see that decent amounts of money are still not yet arriving.

This all makes the investment case here high risk and why I think a £19M mkt cap should be seen as too rich.

Everything written without prejudice and aimo.

[escapetohome] 19/1/2018 18:18

Still very high market cap.

[lwaxf13] 19/1/2018 14:57

Never quite lived up to the bluster from the company. Quelle surprise!!! Will there be an options reprice soon?

[escapetohome] 19/1/2018 13:33

Market cap hinting that this didnt quiet achieve escape velocity to reach sustainable growth trajectory.

[lwaxf13] 19/1/2018 12:33

Have we just chalked up a new all time low? 0.08p bid in old money. Way to go Team Cyan!!!

[threadworm] 18/1/2018 23:17

The perfect analogy:




Meanwhile....

September
October
November
January..

opps sorry, forgot December.

So, erm, that's 5 months of cash burn.

Some say you can still hear Simon Smith's words - almost incredulous in their tone - whistling in the wind....'but we've only just placed!!! :('

Maybe the market is waking up, John?

Wait for the next upbeat "contracts received but not yet delivered" RNS a breath or two before the next placing.

Short term jump, long term sub 10p.

All without prejudice and just my opinion. ADYOR.

[threadworm] 15/1/2018 10:11

.....the management will not walk. given the structure of the board and shareholding structure there is no mechanism for them to go.....this is very much their train....with john cronin and co having built a familiar and compliant team around themselves...

it's pretty much their ship until they think otherwise...

look at the most recent rns detailing their 'pay' in shares....

this 'pay' is effectively in insulator or buffer against the further dilution which has become systemic at cyan....it is not a generous or charitable act by the management because we can see in john cronin's case he is still taking much cash out of the business via consultancy fees and the annual bonus which together equate to a considerable sum...

so....there are still cash outgoings to the management AND a good dose of shares each month, dressed as 'pay'....best of both worlds...

disgraceful.

everything written is without prejudice and my opinion only..

[lwaxf13] 15/1/2018 09:46

Talk is cheap and cyan have that down to a fine art. Way way in over their skill sets here IMO. They have trousered enough. Time to move on, let someone who knows what they are doing have a go at delivering for shareholders before more damage is done.

[stav5001] 15/1/2018 02:43

Love the 12 year chart.

It brings a tear to my eyes, no need for clever words, welcome to a CYAN LTH's world.

Truly World Class.

Hard lessons on AIM.

[realist1950] 14/1/2018 19:27

I'm new to discussing CYAN, but not new to the company.

And the fact that I'm 'new' does not weaken any of my arguments or make them any easier for you to deny.

Read the original admission document and was on first names with Kenn Lamb (a good man).

Have not said much for many days. My urge to post this evening was piqued by a very relevant and good link posted above.

[dwall] 14/1/2018 19:23

Your starting to sound a bit desperate though.

[dwall] 14/1/2018 19:23

I could deny lots that you have written since you very recently started posting on Cyan and nothing else but have no wish to aide your cause, your doing it very well to date by yourself.

I believe you and several others already have open short positions in the market.

I wish you luck with that, i really do.

[realist1950] 14/1/2018 19:20

The company may announce a new contract tomorrow for all I know, the point I'm making is that, in that eventuality, from an INVESTMENT point of view, when the model is still so adrift, the company would still face considerable challenges before it is sustainable and capable of delivering meaningful value.

In other words, I'm saying that I think shareholders will be funding growth for some time to come.

With the uncertainties over the UK roll out and delays faced on one of their larger overseas projects, I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest further dilution and a short position to be rewarded.

Just my opinion. ADYOR.

[realist1950] 14/1/2018 19:12

You can not deny anything I've written dwall. It's an accurate, unemotional and frank appraisal.

Anyone with a long-term position at CYAN has been done.

Anyone with a short would have done exceedingly well.

Maybe you should look at management's renumeration package vs company performance vs recent company announcements. I think it leaves a lot to be desired.

We are all trying to look into the future and stating future risks through the lens of past performance is wholly sensible.

Rgds.