Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[tinker10] 02/8/2021 07:12

Nice new contract win. Guessing it's worth in the region of £2.5m in revenue based on previous contracts.

[tightfist] 19/7/2021 13:15

Weird trades reported on ADVFN today..... Software error?

[tightfist] 17/7/2021 10:44

Hi EE; yes, the intro to the Hardman note is interesting and cites the 23.03.20 240k order for Omnimesh software licences. Cyan reported excellent Thai trial results in a 42-storey tower block on 15.12.20; presumably this trialled and possibly optimised a mix of CNIC or RF Module card in each SM, as required? Either way it is good to see the total orders expanding and the technology delivering..I must get back to studying the Hardman note in more depth! Cheers, tightfist

[multibagger] 16/7/2021 17:34

Many thanks tightfist and emptyend for your kind inputs !

[multibagger] 16/7/2021 17:33

Hardman note summary can be obtained by clicking on the link below.




For the full document download, one will need to register with Hardman.

[emptyend] 16/7/2021 17:13

Hardman note out. Points to another 22mn households in Thailand as potential from the other main utility and says this about the short term:Path to further orders: This latest order takes the total number of modules ordered by the MEA in Thailand to 64,000, plus associated gateways. The head-end software capacity for meter connections already purchased by the MEA is 240,000, implying a path to orders for a further 176,000 modules in this phase

[tightfist] 16/7/2021 15:22

Hi MB,.I take your point about Intellismart and Cyan learning to work effectively together; with the interchange of senior executives, pre-existing pilots and strength of apparent Indian networking I had mentally gone beyond that stage. We shall see..Regarding functionality of both CNIC and IGW, I noted this presentation from March 2020:."Omnimesh Dual SIM Cellular Network Interface CardThe new Omnimesh Dual SIM Cellular Network Interface Card (CNIC) delivers point-to-point Cellular connectivity and automatically selects the best available Cellular network. The CNIC has been designed to be installed into a standard smart meter so that Utilities can optimise their AMI deployments by choosing the right mix of RF Mesh and Cellular connectivity for their deployment environments and AMI requirements. A single Omnimesh Head End Server (HES) can simultaneously manage both CNIC and RF Mesh enabled smart meters. This approach offers a cost-effective solution that enables Utilities to collect meter data and control meters seamlessly through the integration of a single Omnimesh HES into a Meter Data Management System (MDMS)..Omnimesh Integrated Gateway with Cellular and RF Mesh CapabilityThe new Omnimesh Integrated Gateway (IGW) supports both Cellular and RF Mesh connectivity and acts as a gateway to the Omnimesh HES for a local population of smart meters. The IGW has been designed to be installed into a standard smart meter which has several advantages, including: strengthened tamper-proofing, ease of integration, increased deployment efficiency, reduced total cost of ownership, and improved network coverage and resilience".That helps with context around these RNS's though I still find the three Thai RNS's quite opaque - there no financials whatsoever within yesterday's one. .Cheers, tightfist

[multibagger] 15/7/2021 18:38

Hi Tightfist !

"...Which suggests to me that they are planning that the new relationship embraces current projects, which would avoid the need for yet another Indian pilot implementation?..."

In my mind it is not about a "pilot" to check out the technology, rather a small project to evaluate what issues manifest in a partnership between 2 very different sized organisations and their governance/executive structures ? Learning how to "dance" without stepping on each other's toes as I see it !

My recollection of the data journey from smart meter to the Discom is along the lines of (it may be worth checking with the presentations from CYAN on this area)

a) Smart meter in the house (called a node) has a CYAN CNIC card which links up to the local RF Mesh network.
b) Approx 250 such Nodes (the number of nodes connecting has been increasing upwards) connect to a local Data Concentrator Unit (DCU).
c)The DCU then uses GPRS to send the information back to the HES about 183 times a day with CYAN reliability exceeding 99%.

I am not aware that other than the CNIC and DCUs we have any hardware/firmware involvement. Rest is software based, but others may know different ?

[tightfist] 15/7/2021 14:43

Hi MB,.I have been following your tea-leaf reading with interest. On 26th May the MoU RNS: ".....Under the MOU, CyanConnode and Intellismart will work on existing EESL and Intellismart projects as well as new ones, in India and international markets..."..Which suggests to me that they are planning that the new relationship embraces current projects, which would avoid the need for yet another Indian pilot implementation?..On the CC website it states: "Omnimesh features: Supports IPv6 6LowPAN narrowband RF mesh and 2G/3G/4G/5G cellular multi-technology communication" so one does wonder about the need for any Cyan hardware to facilitate integration of cellular communications into the Cyan HES? Or is a Cyan CNIC required? Any comments?.For clues I have taken a look at the three Thailand RNS's (30.12, 23.3, 15.7) but their respective scopes of supply seems vague and unit pricing for 23.3 is fairly low. So I am not much wiser unless a CNIC is relatively cheap..May be scope for some questions at the AGM which I guess will fall in September this year. .Cheers, tightfist

[multibagger] 15/7/2021 08:32

Good morning all :)

Pleasantly pleased to see an unexpected jump of +0.75p on about 217k total trades ...hmmm...a large buy order in ?

Augurs well IMHO :)

[multibagger] 15/7/2021 07:09

Another positive development from Thailand :)

RNS Number : 2890F

15 July 2021

CyanConnode Holdings plc

("CyanConnode" or the "Company")



Follow-On Order From Thailand



CyanConnode Holdings plc (AIM: CYAN), a world leader in Narrowband Radio Frequency (RF) Smart Mesh Networks, is pleased to announce a further follow-on order from its partner the JST Group (JST) for the Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA), a Thai state enterprise under the Ministry of Interior. The follow-on order is for 31,000 Omnimesh Modules and associated gateways and is in addition to the 33,000 Omnimesh Modules and 206,735 Omnimesh perpetual software licenses purchased in 2019 and 2020. Deployment of this order will follow the successful 'Go-Live' phase of the MEA Smart Grid Project, which is expected in Q4 of 2021.



CyanConnode is delivering the MEA project with JST, and its partner Forth Corporation Public Company Limited (Forth), a telecommunication and electronics company that provides products and integration services throughout Thailand.



MEA, who serve around 4 million customers in the city of Bangkok and two adjacent provinces, is deploying a Smart Metro Grid platform to improve power availability and reliability, as well as to analyse distribution losses, automate meter reading, and increase customer satisfaction.



CyanConnode's Omnimesh technology has been integrated into Forth's electricity meters, using the frequency bands of 442 and 447MMHz, which have been allocated to the Thai energy utilities by The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) of Thailand.



John Cronin, Executive Chairman, commented:

"We are delighted to have received this follow-on order from our partner JST. The Smart Grid project for MEA, being our first project in Thailand, is an important project for CyanConnode, and we are pleased to see it progress to the next stage of hardware requirements."

[multibagger] 07/7/2021 14:30

Hi SBP,

You could be well right that in the scheme of things/rollout that the 3m EESL retrofit/adaptation should be doable in the near term and potentially the next bit of news. My own thinking is that there maybe something like a 50k pilot for the same, before we get stuck with the remaining 2.95m :)

ITT - you are most welcome ! :)

[stupidboypike] 07/7/2021 13:38

mb, I would hope that the first announcement with Intellismart would be around the 3m units they need to retrofit with Cyan technology. You would have thought that should be able to progress reasonably quickly. Best regards SBP

[inthetin] 07/7/2021 13:22

Thanks MB. Appreciated.

[multibagger] 07/7/2021 13:17

Hi ITT,

We may get a trading update/guidance attached to some commercial news when it is announced - not sure we will get a standalone one.

In the absence of new contracts, I expect any update to indicate how the backlog of rollout contracts is being delivered and information from RoW. There is plenty to keep us busy for this FY IMHO. I will be looking out for any semiconductor/electronic component supply chain issues.

In India, I see this is as a transition phase to Opex model, so don't expect a huge throughput of newsflow at this time, but would love to be pleasantly surprised !

[inthetin] 07/7/2021 13:10

Hi MB

Any thoughts on a trading update for Q1?

If we're not going to get one, why do you think that is?

Cheers

ITT

[multibagger] 07/7/2021 12:54

Hi ITT,

The Intellismart MoU is a significant step and now formalises a commercial relationship. This has to now translate into actually doing business together, bidding for contracts and actually implementing them. One being a giant (Intellismart) and other (CYAN) a tiddler and by the nature of their size differential, there are likely to be teething issues around processes/communications/permissions/personalities etc till they learn how to "dance" and become slick at the business end.

So my gut feeling is that there may be small size projects/pilots to cautiously kick start this relationship, rather than dive in at the deep end straightaway with a multi-million smart meter contract.

In other words, I won't be surprised or disappointed, if the next RNS from India reflects something modest and along these lines, rather than a huge contract blowing the doors out !

[inthetin] 07/7/2021 12:42

Hi MB

I think that the next news that we receive re an Indian contract for Cyan will reveal a huge amount. Until then, I haven't really got a clue what's going on and will sit back and watch.

What are the chances of a trading update for the first Q/E 30/06/2021?

GL

ITT

[multibagger] 07/7/2021 12:29

Hi MC,

I think I appreciate where you maybe coming from and given what we know in terms of current rollout and contracts, 40p sounds a good premium. However, my estimate of £1+ is based on what may pan out contractually over the next couple of years....India is the jewel in the crown in terms of potential, but there are significant opportunities that we seem to be pursuing in the Rest of the World according to the last presentation.

I don't think for a moment that the BoD will sell out in the 40p range given what they are telling us and I suppose shared with Funds before the recent placing. Time will tell, but take a look at what happened with CLSN in terms of the buyout price/fundamentals.

[major courtenay] 07/7/2021 12:27

The two latest senior appointments made me wonder about that. “To lose one senior position to a potential Trojan horse may be regarded as a misfortune, to lose two may be seen as careless.” (With apologies to Oscar Wilde).

[multibagger] 07/7/2021 12:24

Hi ITT,

I am not sure that EESL/Intellismart have CYAN over a barrel ?

EESL had won orders for about 10m smart meters which they tried to implement but apparently came a cropper from a technology perspective as they went solely with GPRS I believe. It could be that ESSL/Intellismart approached CYAN/were told to approach CYAN on the back of the Indore smart meter rollout.

So as I see it, we are the cavalry riding to the rescue of some very red faces at the top of EESL and Hardman or one of the other Research notes said that possibly 3 million meters were in play for retrofit to sort out legacy issues in these contracts (the majority of the 10m never got installed apparently). As these are EESL contracts which were done and dusted, there may be less margin for us, but going forward in the Opex model with hybrid (GPRS+RF) are margins would be largely protected (allowing for volume discounts).

I think partnering with Intellismart brings the volume of smart meter contracts which would have been very difficult to do on our own and also ostensibly the "blessings" of the Govt and reassurance that the tech solution from CYAN works.

[inthetin] 07/7/2021 12:00

IMO, EESL/Intellismart have CC over a barrel and could take control at whatever price they choose. Without them, CC doesn't have plan. I get the impression that they are pulling the strings already anyway.

[tightfist] 07/7/2021 11:10

Hi MC,Interesting viewpoint, one has to continue to wonder why Intellismart and/or EESL would add all that value to a Third Party?! And at least not require a share of the action; I am thinking predominantly India..On the other hand the BoD are shrewd and also have plenty of skin-in-the-game, so a bargain sale feels unlikely unless there are signs of more emerging competition (in whatever guise) than I am aware of. Do we have any insight to the status of tendering?.Cheers, tightfist

[major courtenay] 07/7/2021 10:20

I have seen quite a few times, on this board and elsewhere a target of 100m market cap prior to t/o, c. 4x where we are now, giving a final share price of 40p. Obviously I would be very happy if Multi turned out to be right, but my experience is that final takeover prices tend to fall short of investor hopes, and often quite dramatically. Time will tell.

[multibagger] 06/7/2021 19:24

Good to read some interesting thoughts and comments...

FWIW, IMHO The company will be taken over in the fullness of time, it is highly probable in 3-4 years possibly or sooner if there is an exponential rise in visible guaranteed revenues. It could be private equity - similar to a Calisen/CLSN type of deal.

Based on the trajectory, my guess is that 2021/22 could see double digit revenues in millions, if semiconductor shortages and/or another wave of Covid don't put paid to implementation in India.

Given that JC has done $600m/5 exits = $120m per exit average. I think CYAN could be his last commercial gig and therefore I would speculate at least $240m as a figure that may get him interested.

My guess is when a takeover happens it could be £1+ per share (as things stand now)...however, I will keep this under review/dynamic based on commercial developments/news.