Thanks Mr Market this has made up for my ITM Power disappointment... |
thanks for posting that dave. |
 Panmure Liberum research-
FCF doubles from here... expect shares to do the same
The drivers of significantly higher FCF are tangible and not reliant on a consumer recovery to potentially double by FY27E. This is not well understood or appreciated by the market, as if it was, the shares would not be on a 11% FCF Yield. Dividends have returned earlier than expected and with a clear capital allocation framework means that if FCF does exceed our expectations over the next few years, then buybacks are likely. The alpha on offer is material and the drivers are very real. Following a year of upgrades, this is one of a handful of stocks that offers earnings and FCF growth and upside. BUY
A market recovery is not needed to hit forecasts, but a resurgence in demand from any tailwinds from a tech replacement cycle and new AI infused products could lead to a revenue beat. The competitive environment is more rational across all markets. With significant improvements in gross margin and fixed operating costs achieved over the last three years, we believe incremental revenues now convert at a 20% margin. Key point - Every 1% change in sales = around £10m PBT uplift. This means that the uplift to FCF is material. We forecast £75m of FCF in FY25E (after pension contribution). FCF rises to £92m by FY27E but we see the potential for FCF to hit £147m by FY27E – double that of FY25E. We detail these moving parts below. On valuation the current FCF yield is 10.5% for Dec-25E, but if the BlueSky scenario comes to pass then the underlying yield on offer is > 16%. The analysis shows that in a Blue-Sky scenario, FCF after pension contributions would be 60% higher than what we currently forecast for FY’27E. As and when the pension contributions end, the upside to FCF increases to >100% vs. our FY’27E estimate. Also, there is scope for further upside from working capital in the core business. |
Or is it the wrong thread... 😀
Rising nicely... |
woops wrong thread... Sorry |
"IF" Smiths close most of their shops that will actually increase CURRYS sales...
Smiths sell a lot of computer paper and computer accessories... So any closure will drive more people into Currys...
Cheers Net.. |
The reason the FTSE is flying is because most of its earnings come from overseas.The FTSE 250 which is more representative of the UK economy is below where it was before the budget and well off record highs.
While I agree some of the redundancies at Sainsburys are company specific, closing of cafes and counters was already on the cards, the increased costs due to Reeves budget mean companies will look at operations and parts of the business that were borderline profitable before may not be anymore and they will cease them causing job losses. |
There used to be no mileage in credit crunches as most of western world in same boat so it’s not going to happen… that’s a pipe dream of some dystopian conspiracy cult |
netcurtains, Currys will be looking at their employment costs and how best to manage them in the light of this governments actions. My guess they will want to move to not exceeding £5000pa for part time workers. Perhaps more very low paid part timers, or devise ways and means of 'sweating' the assets?
Perhaps somebody will set up an agency so that part timers can do several jobs with different employers all under the £5k NI threshold? They'll still have to pay 50% more for their bus fare though.
I believe the overall market is rising due to a surplus of 'fast' money simply chasing assets that are perceived as safer then cash. The actions in the Bond markets suggest that a credit crunch is very close, whereupon one would expect to see a panic to get out of the market. Then you get massive lay offs as businesses go into survival mode. |
lefrene I dont think you made it clear why this helps Currys..
Clearly what ever Rachal Reeves has done has boosted the entire FTSE
(well done Rachaal) but, I agree its more by "luck" than antying else
(unless she has done something really clever that no one has noticed). |
netcurtains, it will be because of the very sharp rise in the cost of employing part-time workers. I suspect Currys may do a similar thing, that NI on part timers earning over £5000 is going to hit retailers hard, and the workers themselves are going to lose half their income, plus their bus fare has jumped 50%.
The working poor spend their income very quickly as they have many needs, thus a lot of money is going to be stripped out of retail. That dim woman doesn't seem to understand the most basic of things. Meanwhile overpaid train drivers will not be spending their extra moolah as most likely they already have pretty much all they need. It'll go on holidays abroad most likely, or a new foreign car?
I recently used a large branch of Currys, it was a positive experience, helpful but not pushy staff, I would go back there again. |
Looks like the investment meeting went OK |
Most like because not many people want to eat at Sainsbury’s. I wouldn’t read too much into it |
And it starts 3000 job cuts at Sainsbury's. |
The meeting begins …. Will we see an uptick ? |
My own mobile account is with ID Mobile and it's an all round positive experience, very cheap including plenty of data together with a slick login. I'm using it's free roaming in Europe at the moment. No wonder its subscriber numbers are jumping. |
INVESTOR EVENT - I am going to join the Engage Investor event tomorrow at 2pm hxxps://engageinvestor.news/CURY_PTU25. Already submitted some questions |
I am going to join the Engage Investor event tomorrow at 2pm - hxxps://engageinvestor.news/CURY_PTU25. Have already pre-submitted some questions |
I do notice (but it might be a coincidence) that before big raises shares seem to dip strongly... I dont know why it is... Probably just a coincidence... I like to say MMs want cheap shares but I guess that might not be the reason... |
Not sure I believe all that MM manipulation stuff with FTSE shares though. |
Investor afternoon on 23rd...
Are MMs looking for cheap shares? |
Yeah its only a general sector markdown probably doesn't mean a lot because as you say their sales were good. |
....But Currys said they did well....
So weird...
I'm thinking the investor afternoon probably will tell a good story otherwise why bother holding the event? |
Lower than expected sales hitting retail stocks. |
Possibly crouching down pre investor event? |
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