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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Currys Plc | CURY | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.15 | -0.19% | 79.15 | 15:08:03 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77.40 | 77.40 | 79.85 | 79.30 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| GENERAL RETAILERS |
| Announcement Date | Type | Currency | Dividend Amount | Ex Date | Record Date | Payment Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2022 | Interim | GBP | 0.01 | 29/12/2022 | 30/12/2022 | 27/01/2023 |
| 07/07/2022 | Final | GBP | 0.0215 | 04/08/2022 | 05/08/2022 | 16/09/2022 |
| 15/12/2021 | Interim | GBP | 0.01 | 30/12/2021 | 31/12/2021 | 21/01/2022 |
| 30/06/2021 | Final | GBP | 0.03 | 19/08/2021 | 20/08/2021 | 24/09/2021 |
| 12/12/2019 | Interim | GBP | 0.0225 | 24/12/2019 | 27/12/2019 | 24/01/2020 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 04/11/2024 16:56 by trader465 My assumption isn’t that all staff are on the minimum wage, my assumption is that £52m will be the minimum cost of the budget to CURY.Staff on more than the minimum wage will cost even more in employer NIC as it’s the same percentage of a higher wage. Further assuming no discrimination, all staff will be given a 6.7% pay rise inline with the minimum wage rise, if so, the cost to CURY will be far higher than the £52m I estimated. Revenue and sales have been declining for many years here, the 1% profit last year came from cost cuts. Costs will rise going forward. I suggest CURY will be a loss making company again in 2025. |
Posted at 04/11/2024 12:48 by trader465 Currently: minimum wage £11.44 per hour, assume 40 hours per week = £23,795.2013.8% employer NIC after £9100 threshold = £2029.53. Total cost per full time employee £25,842.73 After the budget: new minimum wage £12.21 per hour, assume 40 hours per week = £25,396.80 15% employer NIC after £5000 threshold = £3059.52 Total cost per full time employee = £28,456.32 Therefore, with increased NIC rate, reduced threshold, and higher hourly rate the cost per employee rises by £2,631.59 If CURY has 20,000 full-time equivalent hourly paid staff. The total cost of the increase in the hourly rate and employer NIC is £52,611,800 A drop in the ocean? Half the ocean has drained away! |
Posted at 31/10/2024 16:30 by trader465 Yes, all small margin businesses with a large number of employees will be hit hard. My guess is CURY and Spoons will go back to the lows over the next 12-18 months |
Posted at 30/10/2024 10:18 by davebowler Panmure Liberum -As we head into peak, one should not forget that Currys offers huge potential upside. We do not need the macro to improve in order to hit our FY numbers but if trading continues as we saw in the first 17 weeks to 24 August, then the groups 20% drop through margin should drive upgrades. Near term share price catalysts: pension triennial review from Q1'25 could free up FCF, the reinstatement of a dividend (could offer 2-4% yield) and peak trading could be robust with tech replacement cycle + AI product rollout as attractions. In this brief 3-page note we detail how SOTP>current market cap; why we are so keen on this stock and where the sensitivity lies. BUY Liberum view on trading, outlook for H1 and momentum could lead to a beat to numbers The UK market has improved to a +5% LFL up from +2% exit-run rate from the prior year. The Nordics may be little softer but competitive dynamics are less. Group GM% performance appears robust and most encouragingly we are seeing strong tailwinds in computing, laptops, and mobile. The group has achieved +2% LFL for the first 17 weeks of FY25 vs. PanLib forecast of -1.2% for FY’25E. H1 results (12 December) should show incremental improvements vs LY so UK EBIT up YoY with Nordics EBIT flat delivering modest PBT growth in H1. Focus is always on H2 where the group is heavily H2 weighted. On revenues, PanLib forecast does look cautious as (1) the technology replacement cycle takes hold, (2) mobile subscriber base is already nearly at the group’s FY target, (3) we just at the start of the AI boom, (4) services adoption continues to rise and (5) all this before we even talk about the consumer and the macro. Further, GM% appear to be robust especially in the Nordics where normal market competition resumes and UK has made progress. If the interest rate burden eases and we see housing transactions recover + a softening in the savings rate; Currys looks incredibly well-placed to see significant earnings momentum. Value driver - The model has changed and with 20% drop through margins, one needs to focus on EBIT margins as a key valuation driver. We see the opportunity for EBIT margins to double from here and this could drive 100% upside in equity value even before we consider a re-rating. What the market misses - We do not need market recovery to hit our numbers, but we are seeing tantalising signs of improving sentiment. The competitive environment is more rational, and most are focussing on margins and profits. The tech replacement cycle is upon us (post COVID boom) and new AI infused products will drive incremental interest. For only a 5% revenue uplift, earnings could beat by 50% in FY25 & 78% in 2026. Quality of earnings has improved - The quality of the group’s revenues has massively improved with nearly £700m of revenues now being high margin service related. We know cost savings accounting for c.£270m have been made over the last three years, with 1/3 coming out of the fixed cost supply chain. This means incremental revenues convert at a 20% margin, making the earnings very sensitive. Never underestimate the market leader - A UK market share of 23.3% is under pinned by 63% online tech share and c.300 stores. Penetration in Nordics is higher at 28% share but only 35% tech online share. Key to growth is to drive share of wallet through leveraging the 12m active repair plans, >2.5m credit customers and c.1.8m iD mobile subscribers. Key point - For every 1% change in sales = around £10m PBT uplift. This means that the uplift to FCF is material. We forecast £52m of FCF in FY25E (after £50m of pension contribution). This contribution rises to £78m in Fy26E which then subdues the FCF to c.£20m-£30m p.a. for the next three years. However, the sensitivity of the model suggest that it does not take much to materially change this profile, and a current FCF yield of 3.5% for Dec-25E, could double off a 2% change in LFL sales. The sum of its parts is much greater than the whole – for now! What is NOT in the share price If we look at the constituent parts of the EV we have the following: 1. Elkjop could be worth £700m to £800m on depressed multiples and earnings - Elkjop achieved £116m of EBIT in FY20 - a clean-pre COVID period. Despite numerous revenue and margin drivers (which we detail in this note) if we assume this is achievable again then at a multiple of 6-7x puts a value of £700m to £800m on the Nordics business. 2. ID mobile could be worth c.£360m - Precedent MVNOs M&A reflects an EV / subscriber range of c.£200-£350. Taking the bottom of this range suggests a value for iD Mobile of around £360m. info @ fpcfinancial.co.uk 3. Net cash of £96m at the end of FY24 includes an IAS 19 pension deficit of £171m (IAS19) This leaves an equity value of c.£1.2bn against a current market cap of c.£1bn. Suggesting the UK Curry’s business has a negative equity value of c.£200m. For FY25 we forecast EBIT of £211m (£145m from Currys and £65m from Elkjop). What makes this valuation arbitrage even more compelling is the following: a. There could be no pension deficit by 2027 and this should free up £80m of FCF p.a. i) We can argue what multiple to place against this, whether its 4x up to 8x – the point is the value accretion from releasing this cash could add a further £320m to £640m of equity value. b. Some may not want to wait that long – which is fair and they probably might not have too. A triennial review is scheduled to start in March 2025 from which the annual payments of c.£80m may be reduced. Even if this reduced by 25% to 50% the equity upside could be anything from 10% to 25% higher. c. And then there is the prospect of continued upgrades having delivered 25% uplift in FY24: For every 1% change in sales = around £10m PBT uplift. This means that the uplift to FCF is material as FCF is suppressed due to elevated pension payments. With these ending in FY27 or even could be cut next year post the triennial revenue suggests this could release substantial equity value in the near term. In the meantime, a current FCF yield of 3.5% for Dec-25E, could double off a 2% change in LFL sales. |
Posted at 08/10/2024 11:20 by netcurtains Japan and Korean ETL doing OK this morning so I guess that probably is something to do with AI chip sales?If so that is good news for CURY.... |
Posted at 27/9/2024 07:43 by davebowler .....value? The SOTP (on prudent assumptions) is worth far greater than the current equity value. The dividend could yield 2-4%, and a |
Posted at 27/9/2024 07:42 by davebowler Panmure- Liberum research-The Nordics CMD was impressive showcasing Elkjop, a market leader with c.28% share. This is a very high-quality business with digital & services integrated at every level of the customer journey. The resilience over the last 15 years should not be overshadowed by macro events of the last 2 years. The CMD revealed >7 revenue and margin drivers that are in managements control. Near term margin targets appear achievable but these may prove cautious, and this is where the alpha exists for investors to exploit. If the macro improves then the groups 20% drop through margin will drive substantial upgrades and targets will be reset. Near term share price catalysts: pension triennial review from Q1'25 could free up FCF, the reinstatement of a dividend (could offer 24% yield) and peak trading could be robust with tech replacement cycle + AI product rollout as attractions. Key points For every 1% change in sales is a £10m PBT uplift. FCF is low due to elevated pension payments but with these ending in FY27 or maybe reducing next year post the triennial revenue suggests material equity value could be released in the near term. In the meantime, a current FCF yield of 3% for Dec-25E, could double from a 2% change in LFLs. Value drivers Revenue upside from B2B, tech replacement cycle, AI product rollout, integrated services, the opportunity to monetise data, accessories attachment rates and new channels. However, the strong retail skill sets vs. competitors speak volumes as to how entrenched Elkjop's competitive advantages are. For only a 5% sales uplift, earnings could beat by 50% in FY25 & 78% in 2026 What market misses The group is not the transactional led, product push model some perceive it to be. Once many of the new initiatives scale, margins could very well improve to beyond pre-COVID levels Is there value? The SOTP (on prudent assumptions) is worth far greater than the current equity value. The dividend could yield 2-4%, and a |
Posted at 20/2/2024 11:30 by trader465 The Blackdonkey will be exiting at a loss after over a year of ramping 🤷aBlackhorse23 - 30 Jun 2022 - 08:33:34 - 99 of 591 CURRYS - CURY Bought more today Blackhorse23 - 05 Jul 2022 - 10:10:55 - 111 of 591 CURRYS - CURY Bought more at this dip , opportunity Blackhorse23 - 05 Jul 2022 - 19:46:53 - 113 of 591 CURRYS - CURY Over 100p soon Blackhorse23 - 07 Jul 2022 - 08:01:47 - 133 of 591 CURRYS - CURY Way to over 120p Blackhorse23 - 07 Jul 2022 - 11:43:24 - 139 of 591 CURRYS - CURY By tomorrow it could be over 80p & on the way back up to 120p Blackhorse23 - 12 Jul 2022 - 09:33:37 - 163 of 591 CURRYS - CURY Added another 30k worth shares at this deep Blackhorse23 - 13 Jul 2022 - 15:38:00 - 183 of 591 CURRYS - CURY Managed to buy some just under 70 Blackhorse23 - 14 Jul 2022 - 15:35:01 - 193 of 591 CURRYS - CURY Bought another 25k shares ha ha Blackhorse23 - 26 Jul 2022 - 14:50:37 - 222 of 591 CURRYS - CURY Another 40k shares just added in two transactions ââ Blackhorse23 - 05 Aug 2022 - 15:56:30 - 332 of 591 CURRYS - CURY I would say 2 months it will be 160p Blackhorse23 - 08 Aug 2022 - 15:07:47 - 374 of 591 CURRYS - CURY my selling target 250p |
Posted at 18/2/2024 18:20 by netcurtains CURY CURY CURYCURY CURY CURY Nope - I cant think of any companies. Sorry. |
Posted at 03/10/2023 10:11 by trader465 This is clueless….Blackhorse23 - 30 Jun 2022 - 08:33:34 - 99 of 591 CURRYS - CURY Bought more today Blackhorse23 - 05 Jul 2022 - 10:10:55 - 111 of 591 CURRYS - CURY Bought more at this dip , opportunity Blackhorse23 - 05 Jul 2022 - 19:46:53 - 113 of 591 CURRYS - CURY Over 100p soon Blackhorse23 - 07 Jul 2022 - 08:01:47 - 133 of 591 CURRYS - CURY Way to over 120p Blackhorse23 - 07 Jul 2022 - 11:43:24 - 139 of 591 CURRYS - CURY By tomorrow it could be over 80p & on the way back up to 120p Blackhorse23 - 12 Jul 2022 - 09:33:37 - 163 of 591 CURRYS - CURY Added another 30k worth shares at this deep Blackhorse23 - 13 Jul 2022 - 15:38:00 - 183 of 591 CURRYS - CURY Managed to buy some just under 70 Blackhorse23 - 14 Jul 2022 - 15:35:01 - 193 of 591 CURRYS - CURY Bought another 25k shares ha ha Blackhorse23 - 26 Jul 2022 - 14:50:37 - 222 of 591 CURRYS - CURY Another 40k shares just added in two transactions ââ Blackhorse23 - 05 Aug 2022 - 15:56:30 - 332 of 591 CURRYS - CURY I would say 2 months it will be 160p Blackhorse23 - 08 Aug 2022 - 15:07:47 - 374 of 591 CURRYS - CURY my selling target 250p |
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