Conduit Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 04/2/2015 09:16

Cue the uptick :o))

[madengland] 04/2/2015 08:13

Looks like people sat waiting for a bounce to exit rather than piling in.......

[madengland] 04/2/2015 08:01

Which way this heads today I think will be significant to next 3 months. I think the 100-110p looks likely, 80p or back up less likely....

[rivaldo] 03/2/2015 22:55

Nice to see the steady recovery after the initial markdown (I've been out all day).

Sanlam say Buy and have a 143p valuation, cut from 150p.

N+1 Singer also say Buy and have a 139p target.

With a cash pile perhaps approaching £10m now - 15% of the m/cap - the ex-cash P/E is probably only around 8 or even less, given 12.5p EPS for the year about to end.

The almost 4% dividend is not to be sniffed at.

And CRE are on a very low price/sales ratio with around £75m-£80m of revenues.

Plus there's a terrific - and loyal - blue chip client base.

So imo the inherent value here is a lot higher than the current share price, whether that emerges by means of improved trading or by a bid at some point.

I wonder also if CRE will use this opportunity to mop up more shares for their buyback scheme - they've been happy to buy in the recent past at these and lower levels.

[adamb1978] 03/2/2015 11:02

I'm out. Been through the figures again and this is the 4th year of (more or less) flat turnover and, more worryingly, declining margins. I havent been in this for long (a fraction less than a year) however I had recently been hoping that the strong Q1, which continued for Q2, would break the company out of the flat topline/margin pressure. It looks though that this wont be the case this year and it appears that EBIT margins might be down to 12% this year - hypothetically, if they were to fall to 11.5% next year then turnover would need tro increase 5% to compensate, which just doesnt look realistic given the commentary around the health business.

THe multiple, yield and balance sheet, plus sensible board for a small cap, all provide some downside protection however its very easy to see this drifting down to 100p, particuarly in market weakness. Thought it therefore prudent to bank a small profit from my 105p entry and consider buying back in if it does touch £1. The tight spread helps this make sense as well. I cant see much upside from here for the next 12 months unless the business does a U-turn, and thats not a premise for senisble investing

All the best for those who hold

Adam

[dangersimpson2] 03/2/2015 10:37

'broadly in-line' usually equals slightly below, not a severe profit warning clearly but the risk is now to the downside whereas many people may have been expecting the change in management and strategy to be generating positive momentum by now.

[adamb1978] 03/2/2015 10:24

How was this a profits warning?

[2breakout] 03/2/2015 08:27

Everywhere Simon Thompson goes there is a profit warning.

[madengland] 03/2/2015 08:20

This could see 80p if funds start exiting. I guess that will be based on how they read this. The first headline of mgt chopping costs to maintain earnings does not inspire you that a turnaround is on the horizon.

[madengland] 03/2/2015 07:56

Oh but on the plus side their customers are talking positively about Creston Unlimited. ( Er...when did they branch in to toothpaste? )

[madengland] 03/2/2015 07:55

1. Reliant on tax to meet expectations, or should I say be broadly in line! 2. No positive glimmers on recent trading or outlook3. Cutting costs, not a sign they thinks it's a blipAll in all, many concerns for holders I would say. I would expect a sizeable tumble here. Riv, you seem emotionally attached to this stock. Operating costs have been reduced and, based on current trading, the Board expects Group Headline PBT for the full year to be broadly in line with market expectations. With a lower effective tax rate than anticipated, Headline Diluted EPS is expected to be in line with market expectations.

[madengland] 03/2/2015 07:35

Drift Riv? Think it may feel a tad more black run than that, but good luck

[rivaldo] 03/2/2015 07:23

The good news - headline EPS will be in line with 12.5p consensus EPS expectations.

The bad news - Q3 and Q4 revenue growth not as good as H1, though new client wins are impressive with the likes of McLaren, Vue etc.

Given 12.5p EPS, the cash pile and confidence going forward, the current share price seems reasonable value, though it wouldn't surprise me to see it drift.

[madengland] 03/2/2015 07:13

Reckon this is returning to 100-110p then wait and see. With all the uncertainty on the macro level now and CRE not exactly motoring (as I had hoped) then maybe it's back to 80p. The Left overs of the IC tip froth will depart. The way to make money out of CRE. Buy very cheap, sell when quite cheap and everyone expects the turnaround and tips it!

[madengland] 03/2/2015 07:07

Hmm, wonder what the market will make of that.

[madengland] 26/1/2015 16:37

Yes it remains a good buy IF no economic turn down. Will be back in like a shot if we see an opportunistic entry point

[rivaldo] 26/1/2015 07:36

Sanlam reiterate their Buy and 150p target for CRE:



"Creston plc Earns Buy Rating from Sanlam Securities (LON:CRE)

Posted by Seth Barnet on Jan 23rd, 2015 // No Comments

Sanlam Securities reissued their buy rating on shares of Creston plc (LON:CRE) in a research note released on Wednesday morning. They currently have a GBX 150 ($2.27) target price on the stock.

A number of other firms have also recently commented on CRE. Analysts at Liberum Capital reiterated a buy rating and set a GBX 135 ($2.04) price target on shares of Creston plc in a research note on Wednesday, December 10th. Separately, analysts at N+1 Singer reiterated a buy rating and set a GBX 139 ($2.10) price target on shares of Creston plc in a research note on Tuesday, November 25th."

[rivaldo] 23/1/2015 09:15

The next trading statement is due imminently as last year's was 3rd February.

Hopefully another rise coming in the run-up - and afterwards :o))

A reminder that consensus from 3 analysts for the year ending soon is 12.5p EPS, with a 4.1p dividend.

The year commencing 1st April sees 13.1p EPS and a 4.3p dividend.

[madengland] 22/1/2015 19:08

Hoping for an option to buy at 110p if the share price settles back there. Ftse up today, CRE down. I think the fizz of IC tip has gone flat. Still think this is a great long term so looking to get in..... Once the deflation panic deflates a few sp

[red army] 09/1/2015 22:49

RivI would be very wary of the Naked Trader as his reporting system as to when he buys a stock is always declared AFTER a rise (funny that) and his declared gains conveniently exclude charges ie buy/sell costs and any tax if the gains are to be believed.Sugar coated portfolio I call it.

[madengland] 09/1/2015 20:10

Maybe Riv, good luck. If not I am in lower so there is some support down there ;-)

[rivaldo] 09/1/2015 07:31

I've discovered the only reason CRE fell yesterday was because the Naked Trader decided to take profits in his column yesterday, and so some of his followers obviously joined him!

On a single-figure P/E - and a very healthy divi yield - and with positive prospects I disagree with the reasoning. Hopefully CRE will bounce back quickly.

[madengland] 09/1/2015 07:19

My reasoning is I suppose based in history. I do think BB being an accountant could be the man to trigger a re rating. I don't think he has had the time to do it yet, and certainly unless we have unexpected news I don't think the market will reward holders yet. Having been previously a long term holder of CRE I had a tiring decade of ups and downs and net nothing for the anguish. I've seen the market punish this stock hard at any sniff of a softening in the economy. That may or may not be headlines soon, I am not forecasting. But if it does come about, this will sell off hard I think. If it does not it will drift possibly lower. I will be looking to decide whether to enter pre next expected news. Of course there could be a buy out pre any news and that's my risk. The only way I've made money from CrE is buy it really really really cheap, and sell it cheap. If BB can extract what I believe is the potential it COULD have a lot of upside. Very best of luck Riv and Gargle