Craneware Share Discussion Threads

[discodave4] 03/3/2019 21:10

Is it results Tuesday?

[rimau1] 01/2/2019 13:01

Welcome volsung, you have a decent long term entry price. This is a classic buy the dips stock as it can move sharply very quickly. Great company in a fast growing market.

[volsung] 31/1/2019 10:14

Been on my watchlist for quite a time now. Just took the plunge. Hopefully the share price doesn't follow :)

[rimau1] 14/1/2019 11:24

Buying the dips here is always a good idea. It does feel like a contract announcement could be about to land.

[myamay16] 06/1/2019 13:37

Sp started to pick up end of Friday.Should be positive start to week.
Is there possibility of more contracts being announced Jan or Feb?

[hew] 21/12/2018 17:58

rimau, indeed, all the good stuff restated today! The cause of the share price fall remains something of a mystery, but I'm not now concerned and will be increasing my stake as a LTH. My guess is that shorters were attracted and did their worst.

[rimau1] 21/12/2018 08:14

Nice proactive update from management, i have been topping up all the way down and took my final tranche at 2300 on the bell this morning. One of my biggest brexit hedges, i must admit i got a little worried yday and starting to think the US federal shutdown risks were impacting but all good, 15% growth target reiterated. High quality stock this!

[hew] 20/12/2018 14:06

If the over 40% share price fall is rooted in CRW, rather than in the market or the global economic outlook, then I guess the reason must be significant. But no RNS re an issue, nor a "know of no reason".

I see there was a very substantial vote against reappointing the auditors - pretty close thing actually. Thoughts, anyone?

Whatever, re-reading MY OWN NOTES on the AGM Statement, I have to stay calm.

"Experienced positive start to trading in the first 4 months, in line with management expectations. Strong demand continued across our enlarged product suite, from both new and existing customers. Our US User “Summit” was best attended ever, reps from 600 hospitals - move to value-based care growing in momentum. New Trisus products in coming weeks and future products planned. Opportunity to become major player in healthcare. Continued high level of recurring rev, growing customer base, healthy cash balances and increased addressable market. Look to the future with confidence."

What's not to like?

Then in mid-Nov Berenberg initiated cover with BUY and a target 3600p.

Wishing I'd followed for longer and had confidence to top up, rather than just hold.

[rimau1] 11/12/2018 15:09

Another top up at under 2600 this morning

[sogoesit] 19/11/2018 10:10

Yes, indeed, so did I.
Will look for adding more in the coming days.

[rimau1] 16/11/2018 18:15

Topped up today on the fall back to 2800, very few shares with zero Brexit exposure but this is! With US mid terms out of the way this should continue its climb. USD earnings will also help.

[hew] 21/9/2018 20:49

Even though from 14 Sept., Questor's Update doesn't seem to have been mentioned here. In essence it said CRW has doubled since the tip, so should you sell? Answer is No, Hold. The detailed words are all from the manager of the SDL Free Spirit Fund "whose belief in the stock prompted our original tip." The manager says now: "I haven't sold a single share". That is despite it being "the largest holding in my fund by some way".

No advice. DYOR

[sogoesit] 17/9/2018 18:02

I don't think it's about "visibility". It's more likely about "invisibility" or what could become visible.
These are the clues to this prospectivity (excerpted from the Finals):

. Strong sales and opportunities across the product suite and across all classes of hospital providers, including for the first Trisus product: Trisus Claims Informatics

. Early adopters reporting positive results for our new Craneware Healthcare Intelligence software, the next Trisus software release

Neilson: "....and we are excited by the far greater opportunity that lies ahead."

See more about the Trisus Enterprise Value Platform in the Final Results.

Worth a double and more???

The share price is up about 57% from the pre-results base of about 2275.
What we don't know is how far into the future the market will pay now for what might be a double for the future.

[unwize] 17/9/2018 14:51

I would be interested to know if any holders here can explain to me why CRW is on a FWD P/E of circa 68. Recent results showed adjusted EPS up 17% on revenue up 16%, forward revenue visibility was reported up 20% compared to last year. CRW has excellent ROE and operating margin but I can't understand how the above growth can realistically support such a high P/E.

The only thing I can think of is an institution/large investor has misunderstood the total visible revenue figure reported for the next three years($193m)and has assumed it refers to revenue for the next year only which would give a huge boost to earnings.

[twistednik] 14/9/2018 14:20

Going parabolic now which makes me a little nervous! Time to take some profits?

There's a direct correlation between quiet threads on ADVFN and positive share price performance.

Shushhhhhh... keep it a secret ;)

[sogoesit] 13/9/2018 17:39

Nice thread this :-)
GLA

[campbed] 06/9/2018 11:11

I’ve been a holder for over 5 years. Never expected share price to get to £30 so soon.
So little followed on Advfn BB even after recent results. A great success

[hew] 05/9/2018 22:30

Jim, it wasn't enough yesterday then! Today the p/e has risen to 58, so clearly quite a lot, but this is still very much a growth company, so hardly relevant IMO if Neilson's outlook statement comes good.

[jimbowen30] 04/9/2018 13:09

Very good results and positive outlook from the company. Still plenty of growth and clearly a great business. How much is factored into the valuation though?

[hew] 04/9/2018 07:24

Pretty strong Results at first glance. Not a reason for holding but a 20% lift in the divi seems to encapsulate matters. And the outlook points towards plenty more to come.

Neilson: "With an ongoing, growing market opportunity, a record sales pipeline and increasing long-term revenue visibility, we enter the new financial year with great confidence for the future and the ongoing success of the business."

[rimau1] 08/8/2018 08:15

I’ve watched this for a while and took a position at just over £20. Sometimes it is worth paying for quality and i will keep topping up on any further summer weakness. Not only is this an outstanding business but its also great diversification for any Brexit related market adjustments and a dollar earner.

[alphabeta4] 03/8/2018 13:19

Forward is 33 according to N+1 at £20. Not cheap but looks reasonable to me given stability of earnings and growth profile. Looks a decent chart position too so bought a few.

[isaallowance] 26/7/2018 22:42

I should add that they were at a fwd p/e of 30 and then 35 on the two occasions that I bought, compared to 45 now! I'm not selling, but I think I'd struggle to buy them now despite their quality.

[isaallowance] 26/7/2018 22:29

Hi teastain, That's certainly a possibility. The very high valuation is the main reason I only have a mid-sized position in these and not a high conviction position.

I look at it in terms of risk x probability of risk vs. reward x probability of reward. The risk is a profit warning knocks maybe 50% off the valuation, and we still end up with a cash-generative but ex-growth (or maybe lower growth) stock. The potential reward is that it grows at 10-20% per annum whilst also throwing off a growing dividend for maybe 5 - 10 years. The upside in the reward senario is significantly greater than the downside in the risk scenario, plus I think that in this case the reward scenario is more probable than the risk scenario.

I'm not convinced enough to add any more though! I bought some SGE today - that's another quality stock, but one that has issued a less positive outlook statement in the last few months that has given a much more reasonably valued entry point. BVXP is another very high quality stock that is on a more reasonable rating than CRW, I already hold an oversized position in them though.