Cqs New City High Yield Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 24/3/2021 10:18

Price moving up nicely and buys still coming and don't really seem to be being met with any sellers.

[nice_bloke] 23/3/2021 17:53

All Selling last week, all buying this week? What happened at 1.30. Was someone drinking whilst working from home. Let's hope it continues upward ?

[petewy] 15/3/2021 18:21

JB last column in IC (last week) doesn't mention NCYF. He doesn't print the tables of shares he's invested in either. Just names shares. Now Rosier...

[steve3sandal] 15/3/2021 16:39

YS, in order to answer your question either you or someone else needs to buy the IC or subscribe to JB (he offers a free trial). If it's that important to you, you can find out fairly easily.

[yieldsearch] 15/3/2021 16:24

does anyone actually know what John baron wrote?
is it just inflation worries/ long term interest rate (both were already more than a week old news before his comment)?

if anyone has such concerns, well just focus on trusts/funds /vehicles predominantly investing in libor/floating rate bonds with limited duration

[cc2014] 12/3/2021 13:06

This is bouncing rather nicely. Mr. Marketmakers - I might let you have some of mine at 52p.

[andyj] 10/3/2021 14:27

RISE is a fallen angels ETF from IShares, available in USD as WING or RISE as GBP. They buy bonds from recently downgraded companies like Carnival in the hope that they can return to former glories. Their accrual of bonds in Carnival at 11.5% (with the ships as collateral) could be particularly shrewd IF Carnival remains solvent. Buying from inception would have returned a c10% capital appreciation and 5 years of 4.5% dividends, around 6% pa. But their main attraction for me is that they offer protection from equity market movements. That said, I am not currently invested, but watching for a good entry point.

[colonel a] 10/3/2021 13:57

andyj,
aic gives a cumulative distribution of 42.88p over the past decade, which allowing for a 9% capital loss is a bit better than 6% but I very much take your point.
I take is RISE is a £ front to another underlying, which source do you use to get info on it please.
Thanks in advance.

[andyj] 10/3/2021 10:19

Indeed, had one bought the dip ten years ago at 57p and sold at the recently available 52p, the dividend received would be £6700 less a capital loss of £900, resulting in a return of £5800, or 5.8% pa. Better than HDIV, but slightly below the returns from HFEL and RAVP. Although I might take a position here, my favoured option for corporate bonds is RISE ETF. A lower dividend, around 4.3%, but a steady capital appreciation.

[cc2014] 10/3/2021 09:16

MRF is just grumpy as he didn't get up early yesterday and missed the opportunity to buy at a 10% discount ;-)

Andyj - I have voted up your post as I think it's important to reflect that given the underlying investments it's very difficult to see how there cannot be a continuting capital loss given the level of dividend (because the dividend has not been reset as interest rates have fallen. Indeed worse the fund manager keeps putting it up against the flow). Of course if you re-do the numbers if you had held 9.5 years, you could have bought on a dip at 58p which would make the numbers somewhat better, or worse over 7 years you could still have paid 65p.


Which is why I feel very happy yesterday to buy on a significant dip. My average is 46p but I know for sure I'm not going to get the 9.7% yield at that price without some capital loss. Most of them I stuffed in my ISA and SIPP. I hope for a 7% return overall but I won't feel aggrieved at 6%.

[taylor20] 10/3/2021 07:42

So MRF you are saying that the investment strategy has changed so the discount to NAV should change?

I don't think the underlying riskiness of the assets _should_ matter, as the underlying assets themselves _should_ be priced to reflect that risk? Which is what has happened - the NAV is 50 odd pence and the trust is yielding 9%.

Anyone buying into something yielding that much, must realise there is significant risk involved.

Curious to know how many of their holdings have suspended payments (e.g. RE.B).

As someone who has chased 'high' yield fixed interest assets and been stung or escaped with the skin of my teeth! (COOP, LLYOD, RE.B and the near miss with AV). Holding a (small) chunk of these has so far proved to be less hazardous.

I've been lucky though, buying in at the end of 2015, and selling half at the end of 2019, so my return has been flattered (~30% over 5 years).

[andyj] 10/3/2021 00:03

Worth examining the 'excellent performance over the years' comment, which is of course, subjective. A crude analysis gives the following:Had you bought £10000 ten years ago, the price was 65p and the dividend c6.5%. Dividends received total £6500, but the capital loss is £2900, 29%. Your return would be £3600, or 3.6% a year. Perhaps not excellent, but if it is an income you seek then it is creditable and of course skewed to the downside given the recent fall. Using the recent 52p as a price point gives a 4.5% return pa.

[my retirement fund] 09/3/2021 22:03

Can't argue with that. If you can set aside Russian silliness which could lead to a very slim outside political explosion of madness and catastrophe then Raven Russia look a good long term bet against saying developing cancer and dying very early in ones retirement.

[montyhedge] 09/3/2021 17:58

Raven Property 12% cumulative pref, paid quarterly, trading at 114 for a 10.5% yield never missed a payment. That's my favourite.Russian top grade warehouses.

[peterbill] 09/3/2021 17:22

Top 10 Holdings (% of NAV) CYBG PLC 16-31/12/2049 FRN 6.21 GALAXY FINCO LTD 9.25% 19-31/07/2027 5.81 ONESAVINGS BANK 17-31/12/2059 FRN 4.69 PUNCH TAVERNS 7.75% 14-30/12/2025 4.30 SHAWBROOK GROUP 17-31/12/2059 FRN 4.18 JUST GROUP PLC 8.125% 19-26/10/2029 3.71 BRACKEN MIDCO 8.875% 18-15/10/2023 3.62 AGGREGATED MICRO 8% 16-17/10/2036 3.36 CO-OPERATIVE FIN 19-25/04/2029 FRN 3.23 JUST GROUP PLC 19-31/12/2059 FRN 3.01 Top 10 Holdings Represent 42.12

[panshanger1] 09/3/2021 17:00

MRF: He also runs a couple of investment trust portfolios for investors chronicle His comments and changes to portfolios / performance appear roughly every 4 weeks He has a following

[jong] 09/3/2021 16:59

Agreed ... there are some good graphs of share price vs asset value on the Hargreaves Landsdown website. The shares have nearly always traded at a slight premium.

[my retirement fund] 09/3/2021 16:58

Excellent performance over the years Lol. LOl !!!! I've been here since the credit crunch when there was a safe and sensible discount to NAV against a decent deleveragand quality portfolio amd I have watched them gradually transform the portfolios to an ever riskier asset classed portfolio in a never ending scramble to maintain yeild. They have dramatically increased equity investment by issuing equity at premium to NAV in recent years too boot. Personally I very much doubt investors appreciate how much risk they are now carrying at the present (and falling) NAV. But hey ho, no limit to folks ignorance and above all, when it comes to valuations one thing I have always said. Never ever under estimate the stupidity of the stupid.

[lab305] 09/3/2021 16:34

It is certainly not overpriced . No stamp duty , very tight spread , excellent performance over years, first class income share , wide exposure to a number of stocks in a recovery period post covid crisis. It has traded a a premium to its asset value for years and justifiably so. Fair value would be around 52p.

[winsome] 09/3/2021 14:19

The performances of his various portfolios is mediocre at best. These pundits are as useful as football pundits and horse-racing tipsters.

[cc2014] 09/3/2021 13:42

5 million shares traded today on the back of Baron tipping it as a reduce when he hasn't even given a reason. Jeez. Do people have no independent thought?

Edit: He must be making a fortune if he has this many subscribers at £200 per year.

[solarno lopez] 09/3/2021 13:42

Thanks noiseboy

[noiseboy] 09/3/2021 13:18

John Baron didn't give a reason yet, he has sold out of HDIV as well. Will update you when I find out.

[yieldsearch] 09/3/2021 12:22

NAV 05.03: 50.26 / 49.55 (exc current period revenue)
NAV 08.03: 50.28 / 49.53 (exc current period revenue)