Costain Share Discussion Threads

[imastu pidgitaswell] 14/9/2020 07:32

They've been sacked. Personally I think they're right not to pay a dividend - to pay one they need to be demonstrating sustainable ongoing cash generations. They will (I think) do that) - but they haven't done it yet.

"As a result of the issues on the A465 and P&H contracts, a number of significant changes have been made to our contract selection and management processes.

In taking actions to address the type of risk arising from these contracts, the Group is no longer pursuing Energy EPC contracts, focusing on long term investment programmes, and enhancing the strength of its overall contract management under the new Operational Excellence programme which is now in place.

A number of leadership changes have been made, including the appointment of Sue Kershaw as the new managing director for transportation, and we have removed two leadership layers to enhance the accountability of our teams.

The Group's contract management processes and procedures have been enhanced over the last 12 months so that contract risk and changes to contract costs are better monitored and managed throughout the life cycle of a project. These procedures include:

-- a five-stage gated approval process prior to signing any contract, including independent risk review prior to target cost approval;

-- updated policies for the Group's commercial expectation and risk appetite for all new contracts;

-- reduction in the acceptable level of downside risk on any new contract;
-- increased minimum level of acceptable profit for all new contracts;
-- enhancements to the monitoring and administration of scope of work changes to identify and escalate potential cost increases at an early stage;"

[owenski] 14/9/2020 07:31

Awful business and clearly the contracts team are lacking. Someone needs sacking.

However, cash position currently higher than M.Cap.

If they can improve, then this disaster of a business surely is more than baked into the price.

Thought they were considering divis again in October? Dont see a reason to buy atm, but downside looks pretty much factored in.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 14/9/2020 07:24

No surprises at all. Which is good, if a little dull.

"we are confident of delivering growth in profits and margins next year". Well to put it mildly, I would effing hope so...

"Encouragingly, we have replaced all the work we completed in the first half, resulting in the order book remaining at GBP4.2 billion, including total secured revenue of cGBP0.9 billion for 2021"

Plus a lot of stuff about digital, consultancy, higher margins, contract selection and delivery - gateways, risk downside management, consistency upfront profitability assessment etc etc. All logical, but stop talking about it and do it.


In terms of numbers, the biggies:

"The Group has GBP42.0 million of P&H contract asset (i.e. work undertaken but not yet paid) as at 30 June 2020 which will increase to GBP49.3 million at the end of our works, to be recovered through the resolution process. As previously announced and supported by expert advice, the Group continues to believe that it has a strong entitlement to recover this sum...The majority of the cash impact of this charge has been incurred in the first half of 2020, with GBP15 million of cash out remaining in order to complete our works."

So that is £42m spent (the £141m cash at 30 June is after that spend) plus a further £15m to go, all of which they hope to recover.

The Welsh (A465) thing is a word for word repeat of a few days ago - still unclear what the cash result will be. The £45m charge reflects the cash position (i.e. net paid) to date. It may or may not be recovered, we (they) just don't know.

During the year - i.e. the £141m net cash position is after: "Cash outflow of GBP55 million on the A465 and P&H projects due to the ongoing commercial issues;" All info in Note 3.

Other things:

£25m of tax deferrals - PAYE of £15m (paid in July) and £10 of VAT (March 2021) - but overall impact small as:

"The anticipated reversal of cGBP35 million of positive timing benefits from the year-end; and The positive timing of receipts at the period end of approximately GBP25 million (which reversed in the early part of H2 2020"

No pension issues


"A live webcast will be available via the Costain website at 9am today. www.costain.com/investors"


So, yeah. I do still think the valuation is a bit silly. But they need to start delivering.

[disruptor1664] 10/9/2020 23:29

It will get as worse as the media want it to be and how far they want to fling the $hi7. We are all supposed to be investors. Taking news and applying critical thinking and stripping RNS' to decipher and strip relevance and doing our own research. Translation: The media change their stance depending on their agenda they want to push and the government trip over themselves trying to follow and appease the aforementioned parasites; snouts in the trough and all that. Keep in mind they key fundamentals: The UK is a construction led economy and must carry on. If further full economic lock downs occur, this share price would be the least of our worries. Its going to be a rough ride guys, but nerves of steel are required.

[buywell3] 09/9/2020 21:48

No it's not ------ yet

But what if things get worse like Spain and now France ?

Ammu12
9 Sep '20 - 08:35 - 151 of 152
0 0 0
No it’s not.
It clearly says what is....
Stop talking bullocks

[imastu pidgitaswell] 09/9/2020 16:39

Very odd price action around 3.30 - the bid price fell from 49 to 44 in less than 10 minutes, on tiny volumes. That's over 10%. I bought 13,000 at 15.33, and it's not showing.

It doesn't really matter longer term, but just indicates the difficulty short term.

Meanwhile, a large investor, Irish / Cayman Islands (?!) has dumped a large chunk. Presumably after subscribing at 60p. It's all very while trying to save you and your clients from paying tax by registering in a tax haven, but when you're realising a 33% loss in a few short months, you're not doing too well?

[ammu12] 09/9/2020 08:35

No it's not.It clearly says what is....Stop talking bullocks

[escapetohome] 08/9/2020 19:51

Unfortunately its all about making money, not good english old fellow club member.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 08/9/2020 12:56

English lessons?

Anyway, the purchases at and below 40 are looking good. For now.

There is a gap, and this could be just a gap-fill, timing to coincide with next week's results. Possibly.

At 49p, this is still 2-3p per share below its net cash.

[escapetohome] 07/9/2020 21:52

I tried to warn you. Stay away from the CON struction industry and its diabolical Miss management.

[maxplus2] 05/9/2020 10:18

https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiLGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmJiYy5jby51ay9uZXdzL2J1c2luZXNzLTU0MDEwNzI30gEwaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmJjLmNvLnVrL25ld3MvYW1wL2J1c2luZXNzLTU0MDEwNzI3?hl=en-GB&gl=GB&ceid=GB%3Aen

[imastu pidgitaswell] 04/9/2020 14:07

'Dolly' has made 5 posts in total, all about Costain and all negative (edit - now a sixth one, about something else, presumably to try to give an impression of being more diverse in their efforts).

And 'scotsman' made a grand total of 1 post - that one.

It's not much of a deramp operation, to be fair. You need to try a bit harder, the pair of you.

Read yesterday's posts about the cash having already gone, and the £140m at 30th June being after that. There is no 'bill'.

[elsa7878] 04/9/2020 14:01

Not a Scotsman are you....

Dolly Parton stick to singing as clearly accounting is not your gig.

[flyingscotsman1] 04/9/2020 13:56

I cant see HS2 happening to be honest, The government has lost it's way and the public wont tolerate another second wave. It's only a matter of time til people demand an election.

[dollyparton95] 04/9/2020 13:48

This is all hype, it was 50p then they got a bill for 46 million, now they have the same amount of cash as they did before the cash raise so this is now worth between 32 and 40p a share, today is just a traders dead cat bounce. It cant be worth the same with that big bill.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 04/9/2020 11:59

It could all just be a gap-fill...

But even now, at 46p, it is trading at c6p per share below its net cash value - which is pretty much where the gap is at 52p.

Will be interesting to see what happens there, making the heroic assumption that it gets there...) Timing?



(ta for the chart - us cheapskates can't do those 'in-hours' as it were...)

[skinny] 04/9/2020 11:49

Certainly a 'busy' day yesterday.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[stalker_boy] 04/9/2020 11:40

Yesterdays drop was totally overdone and opens up a great opportunity to take some cheap stock here. Fully expect it to be back towards the 60p level within a couple of weeks.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 04/9/2020 07:29

Never mind buywell.

[buywell3] 03/9/2020 21:56

====== HS2 is a BIG mistake and will cost taxpayers 200 Billion Pounds =======

Coronavirus should have been the catalyst to stop it --- boris having had Covid-19 once is now at risk of catching it again --- because you can.


Will the NHS be prepared or equipped with adequate PPE , ventilators , staff and ICU bed capacity plus the equipment needed caught in grip of a second wave surge --- be able to treat him again ?

Or anyone else for that matter as news regarding data has emerged that being Obese makes it 100% probable that you end up hospitalied suffering from Covid-19 ( ie in the 20% of cases that are ).


Worse still being Obese and being one of those 20% of cases hospitalised makes it circa 50% more probable that you will die.
( both above V being a normal weight person )


Lockdowns and new rules and regulations imposed instead of lockdowns are making more and more people obese.


The time has come to rebuild a NEW NHS using HS2 monies to start with to prepare for a long war with Covid-19 and Obesity which also causes several types of cancers and Diabetes as well as several heart conditions.








For those that might think a vaccine will fix things


Worldwide cases are rising at 1M cases every 3.5 days and India is now in a perilous situation . This disease is NOT going away

IMO dyor

[imastu pidgitaswell] 03/9/2020 15:22

And so it should. It's a legacy issue - the certainty (when we see it in the results) might actually help. Added plenty, but happy to add more should it head below 40 again.

£140m cash for £110m. So they sell...


Edit - around 16m traded today, out of 275m total. Around 5.8%. Maybe some late trades still to show. Have no idea whether that has any meaning, just that a lot were sold. Yet I'm not sure why.

[babbler] 03/9/2020 15:12

Or... Today. Lol.