Costain Share Discussion Threads

[maxplus2] 14/7/2020 16:08

What about at 40p (9April). Closed at 41p and opened at 44p the day after.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 14/7/2020 15:57

I had it at 55.6p (post 6468) - so I don't think so. Pretty close just after 3pm though.

Of course it may all be irrelevant anyway - works better on some shares than others.

[maxplus2] 14/7/2020 15:53

Is the gap closed?

[imastu pidgitaswell] 14/7/2020 11:46

I dunno - seems a little unnecessary for an RNS - £150m revenue over 10 years, £15m p.a. when annual revenue is over £1,000 millio; 1.5% of annual revenue.

As much an effort to say 'all OK, lay off our share price' I suspect. Mustn't grumble...

[rumobejo] 14/7/2020 11:28

in a good market day this rns would have seen it past the £1 mark

[disruptor1664] 14/7/2020 11:21

Big buy, but returning back to Earth. Could this see 50p as others have mentioned ?

[imastu pidgitaswell] 14/7/2020 10:11

Nope, false dawn. Back to sleep, (for gap at 55/56p as per weekend chart?)

Edit - all change. 58p seems to mean something, for some reason.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 14/7/2020 07:02

Yes, something like that - put up a few days ago, t/o £1 bn, PBT £70m (7%), PAT £50m, shares 275 million so clean EPS (probably next year) of around 18p, valuation accordingly.

Easy to say, mind...

[disruptor1664] 14/7/2020 06:15

Lets hope a change in sentiment. I took a bit more at 0.60 yesterday as they really dont strike as a value trap. After the 'new normal' and share dilution, what their share price will step to is not clear. What would people class as fair value based on current orderbook pulling 5-7% margin ? 120 - 150p ?I would br happier seeing them win more frameworks like the AMP's that they have for United Utilities, Thames water and Yorkshire water than the HS2.HS2 to me could very well be a problem contract, filling the dead mans shoes of Carillion; but they had their own deep routed mismanagement issues so its unfair to hypothesise that point.

[aquaesulis01] 13/7/2020 17:41

True but judging by the back to normal volume today as opposed to Friday,looks like the big seller is now through so could see a steady tick back up but we'll see

[npp62] 13/7/2020 16:55

No idea why it's fallen so far but it needs to improve a bit more to get out of this down trend. Long term though you'd think this should prosper. HS2, highways, etc etc..

[imastu pidgitaswell] 13/7/2020 16:20

Well none of us know what has been going on - but looks like it has just stopped. Got rather a lot now....

[barnesian] 13/7/2020 14:05

Hopefully the details of the stimulus will come later in the year. Build, build, build.

[aquaesulis01] 13/7/2020 13:51

The A465 contract dispute over the split of costs for the emergent additional work between the taxpayer and the company is still subject to final resolution and remains the one known black cloud on the horizon, for which Costain has already made provision in case the resolution is not in their favour. London based work which covers a third of the order book took the biggest hit during the lockdown, however, q2 has seen that pick up considerably, so I suspect the main reason for the drop in the share price is disappointment in the anticipated Government Infrastructure stimulus package rather than any ticking bomb.

[disruptor1664] 13/7/2020 12:34

Good shout. Did bounce slightly but now its capping at 60p.Ultimately I am AVG 61p so... could be worse. Could be a lot better. I don't really understand the MM rarionale for Costain. On paper they look excellent, and credible reasons for the loss last year with a healthy orderbook going forward, and they have cut ties with some problematic contracts like National grid, but regardless, it doesn't seem to react.I am inclined to agree with others on here... is there a bomb about to be detonated ?

[aquaesulis01] 12/7/2020 15:00

What nasty contracts are you referring to? A couple of nice contracts upcoming which led to the share price rebound to circa 90p at one point, which last time I checked were still proceeding and no doubt led to the recent Liberum price target of £1

[sophia1982] 11/7/2020 16:34

Anybody has more information on those nasty contracts?

[imastu pidgitaswell] 11/7/2020 10:32

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com



Zoomed in:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com



Dunno - looking back at the recent trading statement, things ain't gonna look too good for the first half. But we look forward...

[aquaesulis01] 11/7/2020 10:21

To be fair, Galliford had already fallen so far that it is now operating off a P/E of 0.9 as opposed to Costain's P/E of 4.95 so no real surprise that the former didn't fall as much yesterday. The RSI for Costain has now dropped below 30 so expect a rebound in the very near future.

[ammu12] 10/7/2020 19:26

Galliford dropped 1.5%. This dropped 7%....Something doesn't feel right....I have a feeling it's one of their contracts.....

[npp62] 10/7/2020 16:39

Something smells bad

[sirrux] 10/7/2020 16:25

Which is better for equity value in this business, higher turnover / lower margin or lower turnover / higher margin? They seem to be shedding some unprofitable contracts but what percent of the 4 billion in the pipe could turn out unprofitable when there doesn't seem to be an easy way of reducing ever rising costs? They went through this sort of pain before and recovered from it, but it was a close call. The Government needs to get a proper grip on the infrastructure crisis rather than just cheering "Build, build, build" from the sidelines because it would appear that's what Costain are responding to but it's driving them to the wall if the markets are correct.

[farrugia] 10/7/2020 16:23

well Galliford is also down - it seems sentiment driven but I don't understand. Isn't the government supposed to be boosting infrastructure spending?

[ammu12] 10/7/2020 15:09

This drop doesn't seem normal.I hope they haven't messed up one of their contracts in immingham....

[imastu pidgitaswell] 10/7/2020 14:42

Maybe go back to why it is worth investing -£1bn turnover (low estimate), 7% target margin (although they have to do it, not target it) = £70m pre tax, £50m post tax, 270m shares = 18p per share earnings. Something like that.

I would reckon 150p or thereabouts in under 2 years. Sometimes you have to be an investor, i.e. patient. Add more if it is bothering you.