Costain Share Discussion Threads

[buywell3] 09/8/2019 13:50

buywell3
2 Aug '19 - 13:05 - 5878 of 5893 Edit
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IMO 140p beckons

Hey you .... get your @rse over here

[al101uk] 09/8/2019 13:49

Your last move is history, it's the next one that counts :-)

That's what I keep telling myself on Burford.

[jimmywilson612] 09/8/2019 13:47

A1 - To clarify

- I've already taken a position in Costain at circa 180ish on the day the announced the delay in contracts. In hindsight - this was a mistake

I got excited by the big drop to an otherwise good business so got in early.

Now I'm looking to time my next purchase at a better time.

[al101uk] 09/8/2019 13:36

Cheers Bamboo!

[bamboo2] 09/8/2019 13:27

al, next potential turn dates I have are 12/8/2019, 19/8/2019 & 2/9/2019
Historical support approx 130, 121, 100, 77

[al101uk] 09/8/2019 13:17

Jimmy,

I agree in general terms with what you're saying, but you were specific about the chart; "I should have waited until the chart was more favorable".

I'm waiting for the same thing, but I'm not seeing it yet.

BTW I'm not a chartist by any stretch, I just know the chart has to stop going down to be considered favorable :-)

[jimmywilson612] 09/8/2019 11:11

Hi al,

I don't think so - I bought 28th June 2019. Less than 2 months and the shares have reduced by 20% since then. I would value my investment in Costain in 2 years, not 2 months time.

The investment case I did when I originally purchased the share still remains the same today - Unloved sector in an unloved country with alot of uncertainty in the outlook.

"The Group's order book is £4.2 billion (30 June 2018: £3.7 billion). The Group also has a preferred bidder position of c£600 million (30 June 2018: c£400 million) and tendering levels remain high.


The Group has a robust balance sheet including a strong net asset position and positive net cash, and expects to report an average month-end net cash balance for H12019 of c£65 million."


Market Cap is £157M (Under £100M when cash is taken into account).

I feel Costain is priced for armageddon where I don't view this. However, it's pointless swimming against the market tide and I'll wait topping up until I see some form of bounce in direction.

[al101uk] 09/8/2019 10:44

Jimmy,

"I bought at the wrong time, I should have waited until the chart was more favourable"

"I'm looking at increasing my holding as there is just too much value around this unloved share"

Aren't those two comments contradictory?

[jimmywilson612] 09/8/2019 09:28

I hear you william - I'm sitting on a 20% loss. However, I'm going to be holding to at least the results on the 21st August.

I think Costain is a quality business and in hindsight, I bought at the wrong time and should have waited until the chart was more favourable.

I'm looking at increasing my holding as there is just too much value around this unloved share.

[william7093] 08/8/2019 19:50

Jimmy you not use stoplosses people always hang on to the losers

[ch1ck] 08/8/2019 09:21

Jim Sit tight it looks like the bottom to me.A solid company which is taking steps to recover

[jimmywilson612] 07/8/2019 15:11

My take on Costain:

hxxps://jimmywilson612.wixsite.com/ukstockwatch/post/costain-cost

All be it I'm sitting on a near 20% loss now so make of that as you will. I think Costain is a quality company, operating in a country & sector that was so many headwinds. Be interesting to see the half year results on the 21st.

[rogerrail] 04/8/2019 18:59

NHS needs £6billion just on repairs.

[rogerrail] 03/8/2019 15:24

Whaley bridge has brought into focus huge level of infrastructure improvements that need to be implemented.

[buywell3] 02/8/2019 13:05

IMO 140p beckons

Hey you .... get your @rse over here

[dickbush] 02/8/2019 13:03

Thanks, sharw. I, obviously, missed that, but it makes a lot of sense. If they get back onto the five year plan outlined in the CEO's Capital Market Day presentation, I'll be very happy. As I said earlier, I know from experience, though, that talk is cheap. Plans are rarely outcomes.

[sharw] 02/8/2019 12:36

With regard to "...cutting (the dividend)... certainly wasn't in my calculations..." if you look at the last prelims you will see that dividend policy is being changed to 2.5x cover. Brokers forecast eps 26.8 and dividend 10.7 (reflecting 2.5x policy) this year for yield 7% @ 153p.

[dickbush] 02/8/2019 11:22

When there is a boom and everyone is scrambling for common stocks, take all your stocks and sell them. Put the proceeds in the bank. No doubt the stocks will go still higher. Pay no attention to this-just wait for the recession which will come sooner or later. When it gets bad enough to arouse politicians to make speeches (about it), take your money out of the bank and buy back the stocks. No doubt they will go still lower. Pay no attention to this. Wait for the next boom. Continue to repeat this operation as long as you live and you will have the pleasure of dying rich.

Where are the customers yachts? First published in 1940, I think. Reprinted in 2006

Works for me.

[dickbush] 02/8/2019 10:55

I've been uninterested in the market for a long time but I thought Costain was cheap enough to go through the inevitable bear market and come out ahead. Aside from Costain I only hold one other share that is an out-and-out gamble, something I've never done before but it's an act of faith in the Chairman's expertise. My exposure to the market on book cost is 9% of my liquid assets and, combined, that is down to 8% on market value. Annoyingly, I sold some of my Dollar holding at $1.25 to buy into Costain. L.O.L.

I'm going to wait to see what the statement looks like on August 21st before carrying on buying. Clearly, at a published yield of 10%, investors don't believe the divi will be held. After stating that they would have an average of £65mil in cash per month end this year, cutting or eliminating it certainly wasn't in my calculations. I guess it is in the institutional seller's. If he's right I'll be buying a lot cheaper with the aim, as always, for a minimum holding period of five years. I don't have Buffett's patience: "Our holding period is forever."

[lonrho] 31/7/2019 16:00

60p that is less than net cash currently and less than net cash if the current assets were realised and all liabilities paid off.

[bamboo2] 31/7/2019 15:47

Clinging onto historical support today.
158.4 was last seen 9/9/2011
Next historical support is approx 120-130

Tp remains approx 60

[buywell3] 31/7/2019 14:59

The COST is going down

Weakening chart ledge

Angle of its dangle worsening

Good them charts eh