Cradle Arc Share Discussion Threads

[paulgo] 10/11/2014 14:37

...well I thought so anyway....and now another £100k

[paulgo] 10/11/2014 12:25

258k bought over 4 trades in the space of 7 minutes....interesting.

[pavey ark] 08/11/2014 08:33

Septblue, very informative and balanced post.
There are always external forces at play when you invest in small AIM listed companies and what is a very small deal to a large institutional investor can have major consequences for a company the size of CRA.
Having said that I am very impressed by the large institutional shareholding in CRA and they did stump up over £10m this time last year.

[septblues] 08/11/2014 08:09

Standard Life acquired Ignis in March. Since then they would have been merging funds and restructuring portfolios to make synergies work.

Also Osborne's annuity changes announced in the March budget have hit Life Insurers hard although Standard Life is better placed than the others, as is Prudential. Nonetheless as a generality, there have been fund outflows which requires fund managers to liquidate some holdings. Standard Life's overall net inflow generally held up but within that there must be winners and losers. Therefore they would have been looking at what to liquidate and where next to invest.

Finally the Fed's termination of QE will have had some effect on the market.

Overall Standard Life Small co's is down on the year and down say 15% since March.

All i'm simply saying is that there could be many factors at play in CRA's share price and Standard Life's transacions.

[optimist] 07/11/2014 20:10

transaction 31/10/2014; issuer notified 03/11/2014

RNS issued 7/11/2014

I guess that puts us annoying shareholders in our place.

[arf dysg] 07/11/2014 16:34

OK, now can someone copy and paste the RNS item in a condensed format...

Oh, look, I've done it:

RNS Number : 4630W Corac Group Plc 07 November 2014
transaction 31/10/2014; issuer notified 03/11/2014

Standard Life Investments (Holdings) Limited (Parent Company) -6.996%
made of:
Standard Life Investments Limited 0%
Ignis Investment Services Limited 6.996%

Full name of shareholder: Vidacos NomineesHSBC

Threshold crossed 7%

BEFORE: 29,578,862
_AFTER: 29,553,862 (6.996%)

[septblues] 07/11/2014 15:44

mmakes sense from their perspective since they have to meet quarterly performance targets and benchmarking assesment by which their fund managers are judged. They're close enough to the market to be approached again when there's a material development and, their fund manager's get access to the CEO.

so the call here is a bet against the fund manager within his constraints.

[paulgo] 07/11/2014 13:17

So 25k sold, no great shakes, still holding 29,553,862.

[fraud2] 07/11/2014 13:02

Corac Group Plc
07 November 2014
TR-1: Notifications of Major Interests in Shares
-------------------------------------------------


1: Identity of the issuer or the underlying Corac Group PLC
issuer of existing shares to which
voting rights are attached:
-------------------------------------------- ----------------


2: Reason for notification (yes/no)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
An acquisition or disposal of voting rights yes
------------------------------------------------------------------- --------
An acquisition or disposal of qualifying financial instruments no
which may result in the acquisition of shares already issued
to which voting rights are attached
------------------------------------------------------------------- --------
An acquisition or disposal of instruments with similar economic no
effect to qualifying financial instruments
------------------------------------------------------------------- --------
An event changing the breakdown of voting rights no
------------------------------------------------------------------- --------
Other (please specify): no
------------------------ ----------------------------------------- --------



3. Full name of person(s) subject to Standard Life Investments (Holdings)
the notification Limited (Parent Company) -6.996%
obligation: comprised of:
Standard Life Investments Limited
- 0%
Ignis Investment Services Limited
-6.996%
-------------------------------------- -------------------------------------
4. Full name of shareholder(s) (if Vidacos NomineesHSBC
different from 3.):
-------------------------------------- -------------------------------------
5. Date of the transaction (and date 31/10/2014
on which the threshold
is crossed or reached):
-------------------------------------- -------------------------------------
6. Date on which issuer notified: 03/11/2014
-------------------------------------- -------------------------------------
7. Threshold(s) that is/are crossed
or reached: 7%
-------------------------------------- -------------------------------------


8: Notified Details
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
A: Voting rights attached to shares
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Class/type of share If possible GB0030591514
use ISIN code
------------------------------------ ---------------------------------

Situation previous to the triggering transaction
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Number of shares Number of voting rights
------------------------------------ ---------------------------------
29,578,862 29,578,862
------------------------------------ ---------------------------------

Resulting situation after the triggering transaction
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Number of shares Number of voting rights Percentage of
voting rights
----------------------- -------------------------- ------------------
Direct Indirect Direct Indirect
----------------------- ----------- ------------- ------- ---------
29,553,862 0 29,553,862 0.000 6.996
----------------------- ----------- ------------- ------- ---------


B: Qualifying Financial Instruments
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Resulting situation after the triggering transaction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Type of financial Expiration date Exercise/ conversion No. of voting Percentage of
instrument period/date rights that voting rights
may be acquired
(if the instrument
exercised/converted)
------------------ ---------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ---------------



C: Financial Instruments with similar economic effect to Qualifying
Financial Instruments
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Resulting situation after the triggering transaction
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Type of financial Exercise Expiration Exercise/ Number of voting % of voting rights
instrument price date Conversion rights instrument
period refers to
------------------ --------- ----------- ------------ ------------------- ---------------------
Nominal Delta
------------------ --------- ----------- ------------ ------------------- ----------- --------



Total (A+B+C)
------------------------------------------------------
Number of voting rights Percentage of voting rights
------------------------ ----------------------------
29,553,862 6.996
------------------------ ----------------------------


9. Chain of controlled undertakings through which the voting rights

[theuniversal] 07/11/2014 12:50

Can some one copy paste the rns..

[cliffpeat] 06/11/2014 11:52

At the time of the last fund raising (Dec 2013)the information given was very positive but clearly states that things expected to really kick off in/by 2016/17.

The interims and other RNS notices since then have all been positive.

I'm wondering if this is close to the bottom of the share price curve and even if the future is not as good as the directors predicted for CET the group might be realising a decent profit in 18/30 months time.

Extract Dec 2013 placing docs:

START
Based on information from existing technology partners, the Board has identified a commercial path leading to commercial orders being received in 2014. The Board believes that this should lead to further orders of up to 10 units with each partner in the period up to 2016 and that a product portfolio for industrial expanders and compressors and oil and gas downhole and wellhead should be
marketed from the fourth quarter of 2016. The Board believes the revenues from existing partners has the potential to exceed £100 million per annum from these markets.
END

I suspect we have a few months to buy in at these low prices but we might look back on 4p as a missed opportunity.

Just thoughts as I plan to add to average down soon. As ever - DYOR.

[the_doctor] 06/11/2014 10:54

'The cash on hand, the successful fund raising, the order book, the rising revenue does not square with a rapidly falling share price'

it does unfortunately Pavey
As I posted before, while all that you say is true, Corac is still losing money due to other activities etc
That offsets the value you highlight and replaces robust elements with blue sky, higher risk, higher return projects.
In this context, the market value can be lower, although we do of course think that it's now gone oversold and is likely to have a run up

[septblues] 06/11/2014 10:48

Pvey

that's why i went in search of another reason - hence Goldman report and index movements

[pavey ark] 06/11/2014 10:33

Septblues, I'm not being in any way dismissive or disparaging about the compressor technology, in fact I don't know very much about it.
My point is that it's in for nothing and that makes things look very attractive.
The cash on hand, the successful fund raising, the order book, the rising revenue does not square with a rapidly falling share price.

[septblues] 06/11/2014 10:09

Pavey

you've looked into it in more depth than I have....all I did was a quick glance at AIM O&G on the offical AIM site and some other category over the last 3 months, and drew a very generalized conclusion which is why i said "seems". I was simply intrigued.

well done, quite right, and thanks for the additional info.

I'm a long term holder and if people like you buy in at 5p, 4p or whatever and you're looking for a 10X I'll be content but not delighted. but go 20X ie market cap of £400m then I'll be delighted. Personally i think the technology can work, although not in all circumstances.

[pavey ark] 06/11/2014 09:09

Septblues, I was a bit surprised by that so I used the advfn chart overlay to compare CRA with CAZA,EDG,Hawk,EME and LGO and I'm afraid CRA came rank last in every time period from 5 years to two months.
Not a very scientific comparison but it certainly give a flavour of the very poor performance of the share price.

As I said before,we are where we are, and I'm back in here at 5p (average) because I believe there is real value at this level.

Cash, solid engineering units generating cash and thrown in for nothing is the chance of an eventual lift off in the compressor side.

[septblues] 06/11/2014 07:44

looking at AIM O&G and other indeces CRA seems to have been moving more or less with their sector.

[paulgo] 05/11/2014 15:22

....but as he says, unlikely.

[septblues] 05/11/2014 14:48

there could be one other unlikely reason and that is a customer refuses to place an order unless sufficient assets in place to execute or pay up if failure.

[the_doctor] 05/11/2014 14:43

ok, thanks sept
fwiw I'm not aware of anyone on the bb suggesting a placing in a manipulative way - CRA has a good pile of cash, so the only reason to raise funds now would IMO either be for a major investment collab with a partner, or an acquisition

[septblues] 05/11/2014 14:32

Banshee... Brokers forecasts at £21m is on Barclays Stockbrokers web site. it changed one month ago and current profit forecsat is £3.38m.

The doc....."so please don't suggest otherwise"......I didnt suggest it was you or anyone specific, but that aside, as we approach Nov 11th, literally millions from this country have died defending free speech which has been an uniquely English thing since Magna Carta and exported to other nations. I don't intend to roll over now.

[pavey ark] 05/11/2014 13:41

Banshee, you did remind me of the FD thing and I had another look at the announcements issued at the time.
I don't want to say much on a public forum but reading the details carefully I don't think you can read too much into this guy's departure.
I always take serious note of FD appointments/departure but whatever else is happening at CRA I don't think that this is a significant issue.

In an effort to delay some gardening work to be done today I read the announcement on the fund raising last december and see that it was over subscribed as the board had subscribed for 800k shares and were allocated 650k.

As far as further fund raising is concerned it should be pointed out that the company had £8.9m at the half year results and pointed out that the Trade & receivables were £2.3m up and Current Liabilities £500k down on the 2013 year end results.
"The working capital movements are expected to reverse in the second half of the year."
The loss for the first half was £1.8m which included a £250k one off legal bill and in September we got :-
"The Board is confident in Corac's outlook and expect an improved performance in the second half of the year. We anticipate being ahead of market expectations with reduced losses and in a robust financial position."
With losses reducing and the receivables/liabilities back in balance the company should have £10m cash by the year end.

I also had a look at the volume over the last few months and if anything it is below the yearly average.

I came back in here because the two engineering part of the company were making real progress and it had cash.
Nothing has changed except we have had the first commercialisation of the compressor technology and the losses are being reduced .....oh dear !!

I bought in below c. 7p, more at 5p and then a lump at 4.5p I couldn't resist a few more today.

I haven't seen the most recent broker forecast, in fact I couldn't find any forecast and I specifically wanted to see the figures especially as the company said in September that they would beat the figures.

As always in stock market dealings "you pays your money and takes your chance" but it would be helpful if people remained rational and dealt with things as they exist now and not how they would like them to be.

I've made money and lost money in share dealing but right now this looks like a share I could make money on but I could be wrong (and have been in the past).

Edit: Just looked at the brokers revised revenue figures posted here and even if the revenue was "only" £21m this would mean that H2 revenue was 12% up on H1 and the company has said that it will beat forecasts.