Cradle Arc Share Discussion Threads

[the_doctor] 21/11/2014 09:27

Unlike PIs who can generally get in/out as they want, Octopus is in this now for an all or nothing outcome.
They'll have wanted a price that justifies the risk

As posted, I personally think the price they have is robust
- it's underpinned by the ACI/Wellman side.

They'd unlikely invest in just that though - CRA isn't a profitable, dividend paying company (yet)
The buy clearly indicates that Octopus thinks the CET side stands a good chance of being successful.
I've been bearish while the DGC was a negative in the price. It's now out of the price and importantly the other CET applications, in particular on-rig with BP and in renewables, are doing well and close to proper commercialisation. They're based on what's now a pretty well proven technology that needs only fine tuning

The Spirax-Sarco deal is surprisingly key IMO. It allows CRA to now go to potential clients able to show how products will be manufactured in higher volumes and with the costs validated.

What I think is sad/funny is that many old Corac longs have been negative or selling out (I understand why they'll be disappointed), just as things are coming together nicely. IMO this company is actually better placed than it has ever been and these prices offer the best risk-reward.

Good luck all.

[timmbo] 21/11/2014 08:55

Tick up soon

[paulgo] 21/11/2014 08:44

It just goes to show how arbitrary the decisions of these institutions can be.

[timmbo] 21/11/2014 07:04

Well, there's the other 28mill. No wonder we were dragged down.

[timmbo] 21/11/2014 06:37

It would be nice to see a deal with Spirax, not to mention all the other projects / evaluations going on at CET. Any icing on the cake from these before Christmas will have us in the teens IMO. GLA.

[paulgo] 20/11/2014 22:01

Don't worry ricardo, those purchases will soon be in the black.

[ricardo125] 20/11/2014 21:06

Gutted i did not have any spare cash to buy when it dipped below 4. Spent it all when it was just above 5p.

[bullster] 20/11/2014 19:17

At 28th February 2014 Octopus held £625,000 worth of Corac shares............

£625,000 @ 12.5p = 5,000,000 shares.


..............................................................................................................................

28/11/2014 shares held 5,000,000

19/11/2014 shares held 24,088,311

20/11/2014 shares held 27,053,762

At 28/11/2014 Corac accounted for 5.7% equity of all Octopuses managed funds.
Depending on how Octopuses equity has grown or shrunk since the end of February, on a pro rata basis, an above five fold increase in Corac shares held, shows a tremendous amount of confidence.
Octopuses highest % of equity in any one company at the end of February, was 18.1%.


eaoa.

[bullster] 20/11/2014 18:07

Have found this overview of Corac by Glassdoor.
I have highlighted (###) the part that suggests to me that problems with the DGC are still seeking solutions.





Corac Group is a research and development company that is focused on advanced air compressor design. The company has developed a turbo-compressor technology that provides compressed air with no risk of oil contamination. Corac has also developed high pressure dry gas seals and is engaged in a sponsored research and development program for the downhole gas extraction industry. The company generates revenue by licensing its technologies to third party manufacturers and by providing engineering services. Corac is also researching air bearing design tools,### debris isolation and filtration devices for gaseous flows ###, bearing test rigs, and high-temperature carbon fibre composites. The company was founded in 1996.

[paulgo] 20/11/2014 17:22

Oh so I'm not filtered then doc?

The fair few that have been sold by PI's were on the way down, very few since we hit the bottom.

[the_doctor] 20/11/2014 17:17

PIs have also likely sold a fair few

I don't see trade details, but IMO each of those large trades likely went to a new home and the PI volume is just separate churn?

[paulgo] 20/11/2014 17:08

PI's have mopped up a fair few.

[the_doctor] 20/11/2014 15:36

So, Octopus bought the 3m
That leaves the 4m and the ~20m?

[bullster] 20/11/2014 15:07

Had the feelers out and now throwing a few million squid at it.

[azalea] 20/11/2014 15:01

19/11
OCTOPUS INV. adds 2,965,415 =6.4% voting rights

[the_doctor] 20/11/2014 11:59

It seems rather unlikely if a large buyer took up that chunk at 3.8p ish

IMO a small fundraiser still possible if they need one for an HTT acquisition, but that wouldn't be bad at all

[arf dysg] 20/11/2014 11:25

I don't suppose anyone's speculating about a placing at 3.5p any more!

[the_doctor] 20/11/2014 11:05

makes sense Nick

I personally think investing at these levels is a pretty low risk, but potentially very high return proposition - that's presumably similar to what the new buyer sees

The market cap here is underpinned by the Wellman side of things, which is doing nicely
There's a good pile of cash for investments
and in terms of the bigger upside potential, the compressors are now well proven. There were issues with the DGC, which may, or may not be fixable. However, the concept clearly works. It's now just a case of finding the right applications to take all the way to market.
Manufacturing and distro is taken care of with Spirax Sarco
and in each application we have major name partners
Particularly in focus are the projects with BP on-rig and with unnamed majors in renewables. These projects are said to be doing well

CET success is all upside and CRA anticipates returns there in the relatively near future

A great stock going forwards IMO, but some readers here will of course be scarred by the past

[timmbo] 20/11/2014 11:00

How sentiment has changed, I'm looking for 20p to be honest, get out and still a loss. Ho hum..... But if the story gets better..............

[nick2412] 20/11/2014 10:59

I think the stock went down on fairly low volume. If the cleared overhang went to safe hands, as I assume it did, then there shouldn't be too much profit taking on the way back up to higher levels.

[the_doctor] 20/11/2014 10:44

Those selling at the lows for illogical reasons may feel a bit daft now!

[the_doctor] 20/11/2014 10:43

That overhang being cleared is a HUGE deal IMO

[timmbo] 20/11/2014 10:41

All coming back, word is out!

[regandharry5] 20/11/2014 10:13

Be nice to see these back at 10P.

[timmbo] 20/11/2014 09:58

Off we go. Easy money. (if only I had it! )