Cookson Share Discussion Threads

[crawford] 30/6/2010 09:53

Bought a few this morning, bargain territory now.

[on the up] 30/6/2010 08:39

roundup - not currently, traded last in 3rd week of May. CKSN one always to watch for me. See post 601 for eg.

Best wishes, OTU

[roundup] 30/6/2010 08:27

bob./otu: Curious to know, do you both hold stock in this company?

[on the up] 29/6/2010 20:01

bobsidian 1108:

While my naturally optimistic approach to the market doesn't sit well with your regular (and fascinating) posts, you portend the future well above, imo.

This can seem like a good buying opp but on this occasion I am firmly with you. The next quarter may well be a bloodbath, and for the sake of the wider world economy I hope it doesn't extend into a 2nd quarter. That really will make for a horrendous time.

Best wishes, OTU

[bobsidian] 29/6/2010 14:36

I would be careful with CKSN. As good a trading share as it has proven to be, its charting pattern is now looking somewhat ominous.

The major index - FTSE100 - now appears to be technically breaking down and to enable an extended bear market tumble it will need to use the mining index. And wherever that sector leads so CKSN tends to follow.

CKSN has lost the technical support of its key moving averages though it does look as though it may be sufficiently oversold to generate a temporary rebound of sorts particularly as one quarter ends and the next quarter is about to begin.

If we are indeed about to enter a bear market, you may be best served by not being blind to the extent of savaging wrought on the share price of a share such as CKSN. Just as brokers continue to downgrade a share when it has long since found a bottom, so the same brokers continue to issue positive notes when the share price has long since seen its peak.

By all means do your own research, but do not be blind to the dangers which may lie ahead with the next earnings season just round the corner. In a world where forward guidance is increasingly being dictated by macro economic factors the coming earnings season may not be received or perceived as positively as many would prefer.

[roundup] 29/6/2010 13:05

What an excellent chance to top up.

[qs9] 29/6/2010 12:53

Sub £4 - unless a trading -ve update IMO this may become a bid target as well no? it has halved and more since broker upgrades?!

[davidcod] 29/6/2010 12:37

Sub 400p not looking good.

[evox] 24/6/2010 21:41

From June 1st (Citi) but worth repeating 9it was 4.53 then)
Reiterate Buy - Cookson has been the worst performer in our coverage
group since the April market peak - its 26% fall is twice the average for
our coverage group. A P/E of 8.8x 10E and a potential 11x even on our
possible "worst case" looks low versus the current average for our UK
Engineering coverage of 11.2x 10E (ex the highly rated Bodycote) -
applying the peer group P/E to Cookson suggests a valuation of at least
GBP5.75. The current EV/sales of c0.7x looks similarly harsh in our view
relative to a margin still likely to be 9-10% even if sales fall by 10%.
Our GBP7.50 Target Price is based on 1.1x 10E EV/sales vs. our 10.9%
margin forecast.
Seemed like a good entry point today, so am in at 4.36

[limit up] 21/6/2010 08:24

in the press over the week end potential bids in the sector ie weir gkn etc.
regds

[mike24] 21/6/2010 08:13

looking good to go back over a fiver.

[dizzylizzy2] 10/6/2010 19:47

I know Goldman has been a fan of CKSN so hope it helps in the near term. good timing as well.

[restassured] 10/6/2010 14:53

951p Price target from Goldman.

U.K companies falling to predators like hot cakes.

Who will be next?

[restassured] 03/6/2010 12:46

J P Morgan Overweight June 3rd 2010

[bobsidian] 28/5/2010 12:39

CKSN has been a good trading share but as you doubtless know it tends to be moved about in tandem with the mining index - itself buffeted by an array of uncertainties.

[essentialinvestor] 28/5/2010 12:33

Good post, next week set to be very interesting.
I really like CKSN, just wary on the Markets.

[bobsidian] 28/5/2010 12:30

The problem is the charting patterns for the FTSE100 and the S&P500.

The former has broken down through its key 200 day SMA and the rebound over the course of the last couple of days only takes that index back up toward testing that moving average. Even today it cannot reach that moving average because of the presence of the 20 day SMA which has already crossed through the 200 day SMA to the downside. Short sellers are in wait at the 200 day SMA ready to drive the index back down.

The S&P500 only last night moved back up to test its own 200 day SMA having plunged through that level during the course of the early part of the week.

Now of course a successful retest and break above the 200 day SMA means all bets are back on to move back up to at least retest the recent highs.

But buyer beware. The sharp recovery on the indices is being heavily sold into in anticipation - rightly or wrongly - of another sharp move lower.

[restassured] 28/5/2010 12:26

Presumably Cookson is a prime candidate to be taken over as sterling is weak and the business is recovering.

[qs9] 28/5/2010 10:21

Bobs, not sure technical analysis will help in the last 2 weeks...good results, new highs of £6ish hit and target prices from brokers ranging from £7-9 and upgrades, spooked markets and it was IMO oversold, so naturally a large bounce IMO...should on fundamentals if China still motoring etc be well over £5,..DYOR etc

[bobsidian] 28/5/2010 08:45

I am a bit wary about the current share price pattern of CKSN.

It looks as though it may be hitting overhead resistance at around £4.75-£4.80 - maybe a bit higher to hit its downward sloping 20 day SMA at close to £5 - before rushing back down to retest the recent lows.

By doing so CKSN may confirm a near term low to allow a possible trading range between £4.15 and £4.75 to develop over the summer months .

Maybe.

[restassured] 28/5/2010 07:34

05/28/2010 08:24:59 - *FTSE 100 End Of 2010 Target Raised To 5800 From 5000 By Morgan Stanley

[essentialinvestor] 27/5/2010 11:17

This is like a geared play on the Markets imv, particularly any China news.
Great on days like today, but if we fall again, then get out of the way imo.

If you are in for the longer term, you can just look and smile I suppose.

[qs9] 27/5/2010 10:21

agreed, looking for move past £5 in short term back to where it should be...

[stevepadstow] 27/5/2010 10:09

Restassured...yes, Sachs have them at 920p, Citi at 750p, Panmure, JPM, Arden, UBS all at buy. Seems we are way oversold but react specifically to good/bad news from China. Ticking up nicely today....