Conti.Coal Share Discussion Threads

[ceepee01] 16/8/2013 23:41

Bring it on!

Potential to buy at lower share price ..you just need to remember why you bought in the first instance...ignore the manipulation!

[greglt82] 16/8/2013 21:57

Yes, agree cyber - until we get some positive news, unfortunately with such small volume I can only see this going one way as people are getting impatient -

[cyberbub] 16/8/2013 21:44

All a bit frustrating here. Looks like the first 4 trades were sells and the rest buys?

[6kenny] 16/8/2013 14:13

a long, boring road...

[queenwood] 16/8/2013 14:11

a road :0)

[greglt82] 16/8/2013 13:18

What's M1.

[queenwood] 16/8/2013 12:30

last tree shake before M1. news must be due on several fronts,there dosnt apear to be any change in the co fortunes .so just shaking prior to news imo :0)

[greglt82] 14/8/2013 19:46

We desperately need some news !!! When do we think we will hear something ? Surely they aren't going to wait until the SA listing until the news flow commences ?

[cyberbub] 14/8/2013 17:30

The 500k sell at 1.90p is a slight worry, but the shares got snapped up at 2.12p half an hour later...

[greglt82] 14/8/2013 07:47

High volume day in oz - over 2m shares traded. Things beginning to look up in my opinion, now just need some news flow

[queenwood] 13/8/2013 20:24

The official release of South Africa's coal road map comes at a critical juncture because it dovetails with the increasing awareness that national electricity supply utility Eskom is facing a coal supply cliff.

Associated with that has emerged the discussion by government that it wishes to make coal a strategic resource, though specifically what that entails and the implications of such an action remain unclear.

Mr Ian Hall chairman of the SA coal roadmap steering committee said that "Within the next 5 to 7 years Eskom needs new coal supplies of at least 60 million tonnes a year and one of the key findings of the roadmap is that this is one of the required actions no matter which variation of the four modelled scenarios eventuates."

It is expected that Eskom will have at least five coal fired power stations still in operation after 2040 and its 40 year coal supply plan sees a requirement for 3.8 billion tonnes of coal of which 1.7 billion tonnes remains uncontracted. A complicating factor is that some 300 million tonnes to 800 million tonnes of Eskom new supply is threatened by competition from low quality exports. This coincides with the 16 MJ/kg to the 24 MJ/kg calorific value range coal that South Africa's existing power stations require until 2035 and beyond.

Mr Hall who is also the general manager for projects for Anglo American Thermal Coal, one of Eskom's major coal suppliers said that "The challenge Eskom faces is that the collieries which supply the existing power stations are running out of reserves and meeting future coal demand will require the development of lower yield thus more costly ore bodies, further away from the stations than those that are coming to the ends of their lives."

He said that "If coal is to be transported from the Waterberg to Eskom's power stations in Mpumalanga, then it is estimated the rail cost alone of this coal to these power stations could amount to ZAR 200 per tonne, whereas in reported year (to March 2012), Eskom was paying around ZAR 230 per tonne for coal overall. Take into account the need to invest new capital into new coal mines, as well as the necessary washing facilities and added transport costs from a coal sector perspective Eskom's attempt to keep its coal cost escalation low will encounter difficulties. There will be a step change for Eskom in the cost of new coal supplies, no matter who builds the new mines that are required."

[ceepee01] 13/8/2013 05:54

Cyber...a re-post of mine after new list of shareholders...

A summary of the changes to the Top 20 CCC Shareholders, further to the new list put on their website 24 July:

> Overall, the Top 20 have increased their net holdings by 17.4m (+2.5%), now representing 46.2 % of Contis shares (ie total 316m for Top 20 vs 684m Total Co).

> The Top 4 have retained their rankings and increased their total holdings by 16.2m (+2.4%)- VMR 0; Computershare +5.8m; Citicorp +6.7m; Marmulla +3.7m.

> Also, JP Morgan increased by 2.9m.

> 7 holders (incl VMR) are unchanged.

> The only significant reduction is ETrade Australia -3.5m

> Other changes are relatively small. Remember that Scooby (JB's previous Trust) now falls outside the Top 20 (c.1m) as a balance to his new Trust Sash (2.75m)which is in the Top 20.

So, the balance of power is held by a small few and increasingly so. If/when VMR increase their holding this would be c.50%- a powerful vote between the TOP 20 to say the least!!! DYOR

A gradual build up by some then! When Penumbra reaches full production and other long-overdue events are announced these players will be very well positioned!!! DYOR

[neilcrom] 13/8/2013 02:02

i also have exposure for coal via BHR, but mainly coking coal as compared to cool re thermal coal. nevertheless, cool at this price is a steal

[cyberbub] 12/8/2013 22:31

Richards Bay coal futures are picking up slightly... still some way to go though. If front-month contracts get to a consistent $80+ then that will make a substantial difference to Conti's cash flow.

[cyberbub] 12/8/2013 18:25

More selling today. There have been millions sold in the last few weeks but the bid has remained at or above 2p... I can still sell the best part of a million in one go at 2.06... *someone* is buying them... I wonder whether it is VMP finally buying their 4pc they needed to take them up to 19.9pc of the company? Given that they bought most at 5.5p, if the MMs are holding it down for them, what will happen when they have had their fill?? NAI

[cyberbub] 10/8/2013 07:55

Let's hope that was the end of the seller who has been holding us back for the last few weeks? Touch wood.

[troutisout] 09/8/2013 13:44

The 500k was delayed by an hour and was actually at the start of the selling (spread was 2.15p-2.39p), it looks like someone was unloading part or all of the holding, getting 500k first, then 250k's and finally 100k with lower bid prices (2.155p, 2.15p, 2.10p, 2.025p).

Point is, a lot of selling and not much movement in MMs.

Trout.

[troutisout] 09/8/2013 13:35

cyberbub,

I haven't even looked at the ADVFN trades screen.

I have been following the trades as they have happened and they are definitely as I have stated, Barclays were 2.15p bid, down to 2.10p, then 2.02p with only 25k limit, then back up to 2.06p again but in larger size.

You can buy at 2.12p in 250k with 2.20p being quoted for up to 375k on the offer, Barclays not offering a quote for any more than that.

Trout.

[cyberbub] 09/8/2013 12:45

As usual that's just the 'estimate' by ADVFN, trout. My feeling is that some of the later trades above 2.10 are buys.Currently 2.22p to buy 500k on TDW.NAI

[troutisout] 09/8/2013 12:36

40k of Buys against 1.9m Sells.....

[cyberbub] 07/8/2013 22:04

While I am no expert, in terms of the charts, it seems to me that we have a 'horizontal' breakout from the downchannel established since the peak in January. It's encouraging also that despite the usual low August volumes, we seem to be holding up quite well, there is definite buying interest in the background. I could sell 800K shares in one go at 2.15p all day, and have been able to for the last few days. I get the clear feeling that we are at a 'bottom', unless something goes seriously wrong - which is not impossible of course!

Now we need a reason to actually buy... news please!! Hopefully good news!!

NAI

[queenwood] 07/8/2013 16:17

all three ;0)

[cyberbub] 07/8/2013 14:01

De Witt offtake agreementSale of non core assetsBotswana JV?

[greglt82] 07/8/2013 13:48

Good to see some volume here again - desperately need some positive news - what are we expecting next ?