Conti.Coal Share Discussion Threads

[troutisout] 25/9/2013 14:53

can't even get 50k online offer now, absolutely dead here yet it seems the price could move up strongly with some buying.

Trout.

[troutisout] 25/9/2013 13:44

Another tick up on a small buy, 1MM on 2.10p and the rest are up at least 2.25p offered, which if we are to emulate Aus would be the likely end point for today - 2.1p-2.25p would bring us back up to ASX close.

Trout.

[saikat] 25/9/2013 13:37

Look at the number of power stations in Mpumalanaga.



Medupi is actually in Limpopo along with Matimba - coal supplies will come from Exxaro's Waterberg mines with very long term contracts. Water problem for power plants solved by dry cooling. But plenty of water is needed by coal washeries given the otherwise poor quality of the coal (ROM coal has 40-50% ash).

Why did Exxaro not take up the 30% ownership option on Coal of Africa's
Makhado deposits? They apparently hold 80% of South Africa's coking coal deposits. Intriguing for such an important player in the South African coal landscape. Do they want to come back later and buy Coal of Africa on the cheap?

[troutisout] 25/9/2013 12:21

From Hotcopper,

"Noticed again there was only one share traded at the end today. Look for another move tomorrow boys and girls. If there was a take over there would be a move of doubling or tripling of the share price so don't get to excited yet. Its only $100,000 worth of shares traded. This will be just a start to a small rally into the 1st October meeting and JSE listing. Rumour has it once it hits the JSE board there will be a spike in the share price. Guess we will just wait & see if it holds true?"

[troutisout] 25/9/2013 10:34

Think we are the only ones here, up nearly 20% in Oz on good volume and up only 2.6% here.

We have the operations update and investors conference call next Tuesday, I just wonder if something leaked on developments? You would expect them to have news of developments and the way they RNSed the update seems they want people to be watching.

There have been great changes over the past few months, the new CFO being one of the main wishes for Aussie investors and so maybe now some are beginning to get a little more positive about CCC.

Trout.

[the heed] 25/9/2013 10:00

Yeah I get it.. My system does give the break down of individual trades.. Noticed that the same thing happened today,,

Good close in Aus if it cracks on tomorrow then I think there may be very good news on the horizon..

[troutisout] 25/9/2013 09:55

I could buy 500k with Barclays, when I got mine.

By the way the 1 share traded yesterday and again today, take yesterday's trades there were a group of trades that went through at 3.1c at the same time, this is because the order book has many different bids and offers on, so when someone comes to sell this sell is split up into the bids on the book, if as one person was bidding for 11,999 then another bidder may want more but only gets the missing one share from the sell order (the remainder after the 11,999 sell). I hope this makes sense but what it does mean is that bidder may now only be bidding for 9,999 shares and so if someone else comes in to sell 10k then they get 9,999 and some other bidder will get the odd one share and it happens again.

Cheers Trout.

[the heed] 25/9/2013 09:42

It was 375 k this morning..

It will take off this afternoon once people have woken up!

[troutisout] 25/9/2013 09:34

As long as there is no barbed hook going with it, LOL!

MMs shut the box a little with a maximum of 50k on the full offer now with Barclays.

Trout.

[the heed] 25/9/2013 09:26

Looks like we got the worm early mr trout ., which for you seems appropriate!!!

[troutisout] 25/9/2013 09:18

Aus back to levels last seen in Jul-Aug, but our chart suggests we need to move up a bit to catch up. With ASX being the doomsters and the AIM more optimistic it seems quite weird that it is this way round.

[troutisout] 25/9/2013 08:45

the heed,
I agree with you, the Aus close of 3.7c equates to 2.17p does it not, yet I have just bought sub 2p.

Trout.

[the heed] 25/9/2013 08:30

My Ig system is showing cool closing at .31 and not .37 which it did..

The uk line has not moved this morning which you would expect.. I wonder if the feed to the uk is not updating therefore not alerting the mms to the move in Aus..

What we might have is an opportunity to bag some cheap shares?

I have just bought £3395 worth as I think the mms are still asleep!!!!

[the heed] 25/9/2013 07:17

Closed up16% I think it hit .37

Waiting final vol figures..

[the heed] 25/9/2013 06:54

Very odd!!!

[loverat] 25/9/2013 06:49

Indeed. Let's hope it is the start of something.

For me the disappointment has been the fact that news indicated previously (asset sales) never materialised. That was what was behind the positivity here previously. Let's hope they announce something positive in that respect soon.

[the heed] 25/9/2013 06:43

Up 10% in Aus with decent vol.. Well for Aus it is!

[ceepee01] 24/9/2013 23:31

They need waking up then... a nice big sale would do the trick!

[c31161] 24/9/2013 22:23

Ceepee I don't think they have gone they are just bored

[ceepee01] 24/9/2013 19:49

Equally, a spike will shift the disaffected...a number of previous regular posters on here appear to have gone...the desired effect! BUT, so have the de-rampers...but back very soon IMO!

[ceepee01] 24/9/2013 19:46

Yes Heed- also look at this week's AIM "trades"...I don't think so!

The only REAL trade on AIM recently appears to be Turvey's.

Difficult to believe Turvey would buy if Penumbra wasn't on track. Also, he has his London Pres'n in 3 weeks (17th).

If this is kept down then any spike will look good on a small base (0.5p on 2p = 25%) but could generate a lot of sales to be picked up!

When, I wonder, will VMR strike...COP Friday or after a spike and news ebb?

[saikat] 24/9/2013 12:27

Waterberg seems to have a quality problem in the coal and shortage of water, plus the huge problem in transport infrastructure and costs. See: hxxp://www.bdlive.co.za/opinion/columnists/2013/08/07/eskoms-coal-and-water-dilemma

Waterberg-Witbank Arbitrage (let us call it by this name as this is what it is - I don't know whether the problem has any other popular name) is really intriguing.

First logical conclusion for me. Vlaavarks is under a 3-year offtake contract with Eskom which should expire in 2015. This should not be renewed by Cool. They should play it with short term or spot contract from then on - they should do much better. They should try to be suppliers at the margin.

Second logical conclusion for me. The initial mines from Waterberg (not talking of Matimba suppliers here) which are supposed to supply the power stations of Mpumalanga will make terrible losses unless they are subsidized. I doubt whether Eskom has the financial capacity to subsidize these mining operations. Will South African government subsidize them? Why are they not talking already given timewise we are nearly there?

Thirdly, Eskom has serious problems. Uncontracted Witbank coal prices should move closer to world prices.

Fourthy, uncontracted Witbank domestic coal prices should theoretically
still trail RBCT prices, as once they come reasonably close, RBCT exporters will switch (subject to export contract flexibilty) from exporting to
supplying Mpumalanga power plants.

Fifthly, if Waterberg fails to take off because of high costs and lack of subsidy, there is a possibility that in seven or eight years or so, the entire RBCT export feeds South African power plants - there is some chance here that South Africa will have to start importing coal. So, uncontracted Eskom prices may cross world prices in this event.

[troutisout] 24/9/2013 08:49

the heed,
all those trades happened at the same time 480k of them, the trade of 1 share was part of a larger fill with many counterparties. I think some here are being far too conspiracy minded. We know investors in Oz have been shafted over the years and they are very negative. We know COOL need to sort out their finances shortly and we know we are getting an update next week, it's bound to be a bit shaky!

Trout.