Connect Share Discussion Threads

[retsius] 07/2/2018 09:00

Is24
I think your on the wrong website.


Seat belts not required this AM!

[ls24] 07/2/2018 08:24

It needs some commercial input at board level imho also Edinburgh, has managing a shrinking business taken away any commercial brilliance

[retsius] 06/2/2018 21:11

Bought today.
Dow up 500+ today,
Could be interesting tomorrow!
R.

[retsius] 06/2/2018 11:40

GB and EMS
Point taken.
R.

[edmundshaw] 06/2/2018 11:01

Various things could prevent management from buying right now. Insider status is quite a constraint...

[grahamburn] 06/2/2018 10:48

retsius

At this particular juncture, the directors may be prohibited from trading (buying or selling!) if negotiations with Aurelius are ongoing.

[colonel a] 06/2/2018 10:46

I'd be uncomfortable to see director buying in the current state of uncertainty but some news followed by said buys would be nice.
The news does not even have to be all that good.
Ho hum.

[smithless] 06/2/2018 10:44

It would be insane for the management to continue to pay a dividend if the share price remains at these levels. Better to pay down expensive debt. Have been tempted to buy these, cos from a free cash flow basis, the share price is too low. Would like more info on why the book biz didn't go through, as its rattle confidence further IMHO

[retsius] 06/2/2018 10:16

What we need to see is some substantial further purchases by the Board after all they know far more than we do and if it is such a bargain as it appears to be, why are they not buying heavily?
R.

[edmundshaw] 06/2/2018 10:01

I had a nibble yesterday. 3% down now. Oh well, if they maintain the dividend I suppose 15% p.a. is not too shoddy...

[retsius] 06/2/2018 09:49

Good morning guys!
Cnct, three whammies!

1. Profit warning... not disastrous as such... 10% lower than forecaste...divvy covered.
2.Books div. fails to sell. Well now the dust has settled we await further developments.Well it is piddly compared to Newspaper turnover and if not making a small profit then it's losses I feel will be very small.
This I feel will be resolved somehow.
3.Market meltdown! Of course ,totally unrelated to Connect has pushed the stock further south.
This has resulted in a p/e of 5.5 and a current yield of 16.23%!

Catastrophic markdown and loss of confidence has lead the share down to an absurd level.Am I buying? Well you'd have to nerves of steel to buy , but a small nibble might be warranted.
This is not Carillion.
R.

[rcturner2] 03/2/2018 09:23

Well I can see the purchaser pulling out perfectly legally if they have relied on warranties that they now feel were not honestly given.

[colonel a] 03/2/2018 08:56

Neither Aurellis nor Connect smelling of roses at the moment.
If both are to come out of this without further questions of competency or reputational damage they need to find a face saving solution.

Not sure that wholesale books would see peak demand in Dec and you could argue that the extra strain of due diligence would leave a lot of staff owed TOIL, which could delay sales / invoice collection...

However as well as excuses there would have to be a revision of the deal which both sides could swallow.
Maintaining the headline price but including a buyout clause to drop the initial commitment would seem plausible.

I'm sure they will all be beavering away furiously over the w/e trying to restore our collective fortunes.

[thevaluehunter] 02/2/2018 21:55

The EV/EBITDA ratio looks pretty good here c4x based on the updated profit forecast and there is also massive dividend which is well covered.

[nigelpm] 02/2/2018 13:31

Problem and reason for the fall IMHO is faith in management.

If what Aurellis are saying is true they're not being truthful here - always a concern.

[aleman] 02/2/2018 12:54

The drop from 140p to 65p has already occurred when not that much has changed. The Books divisions is a jumble of growing and shrinking businesses that need rationalising. There is a profitable future there. The Wordery online seller is growing well. Close some bits and what's left is profitable and growing.

[lord gnome] 02/2/2018 12:37

By the way, checking back, I first bought into CNCT in 2008 when it was WHS - cost 70p! Made a lot first time around, but gave most of it back.

By the way (2), by the looks of the statement from Aurelius, CNCT appear to have been trying to flog off a pig in a poke. Hope that's not the case, but it certainly has a whiff about it.

[lord gnome] 02/2/2018 12:34

Sure it will Aleman - but where is the growth to come from? The trick will be to find a new growth area in which to invest the cash flow coming from news and mags. They have been trying for a few years without any success to date. Pass my Parcel may indeed come good with time and investment, but in the meantime profits - and the share price will suffer. Personally I am not convinced.

[aleman] 02/2/2018 12:30

Lord Gnome - others said the same in 2008/9 at 50-60p. They then went to 250p in 2013. Yes, the business is gradually dying. It will go after another 40-50 years of monopoly level profits. Hopefully, they will have Pass My Parcel into profit by then!

[turbocharge] 02/2/2018 11:58

On-going £5m efficiency savings in the News Distribution service are planned in the next few years. Steps are being taken to improve efficiencies, eg. building the Hemel Hempstead warehouse which has a capacity to deliver to 7,650 customers.

[danieldruff2] 02/2/2018 11:54

Gnome, Imperial Brands has a core business which is gradually dying, but it's been a fantastic investment because it is profitable and significant barriers to entry. Similar story here in some respects, who is going to build a newspaper and magazine distribution business these days?

Pass my Parcel is the biggest issue IMO - will it ever generate enough profit to justify the losses it is racking up? I think they would be better off paying down the debt than blowing money this way.

[cc2014] 02/2/2018 11:51

So, a puzzle.

11k 66.1 sell iceberg loaded at 66.1

100k fake buys at 64.4,64.8,65.3

When the sell iceberg gets filled either through direct AT trades or enough o trades and the 100k buys get pulled will the price go up because the seller holding the price down is finished or will it go down as the fake orders holding it up get pulled.

Or do nothing?

[turbocharge] 02/2/2018 11:48

Nobody stopped me, just topped up!

11:47:01 65.9009 3,333 O 65.70 66.00 Buy