Connect Share Discussion Threads

[rcturner2] 15/2/2018 07:22

Problem solved.

[mister md] 15/2/2018 07:11

Yes, onwards and upwards

[mister md] 14/2/2018 12:29

the chart looks like it has bottomed out at least

[rcturner2] 14/2/2018 10:00

Thanks edmund. We will see if that is the case. I hope so. Another 250k buy gone through and further steady buying today.

[edmundshaw] 14/2/2018 09:52

Your timing here is beginning to look perfect, RCT. Very well done!

[rcturner2] 14/2/2018 08:37

Another huge trade, this time 500k shares.

[rcturner2] 13/2/2018 12:43

An overhang of stock may be clearing.

[zimbtrader] 13/2/2018 12:23

Mmmm. Something seems to be afoot if you go by volume today. I'm only surprised the share price hasn't moved higher IF the level of buys is accurate...

[retsius] 13/2/2018 12:18

With a price rise, it's not what you would expect today after a lacklustre Broker statement.
Some very large buys: 250k,750k,500k. These are huge tranches of shares .
Something is afoot?

[lonrho] 13/2/2018 12:07

Presumably peel hunt are looking into the future re free cash flow as the dividend was covered by free cash flow in 2016 and 2017.

[speedsgh] 13/2/2018 11:43

Peel Hunt downgrades Connect on divi fears -

Peel Hunt has downgraded parcel delivery business Connect Group (CNCTC) after it failed to dispose of its books division to German investors Aurelius.

Analyst Christopher Bamberry downgraded his recommendation from ‘add’ to ‘hold’ and reduced the target price from 124p to 67p after a trading update that showed revenue was in line with expectations. The shares fell 1.1% to 61.7p yesterday.

‘With the failure of Aurelius to complete the acquisition of the books division before the agreed 31 January 2018 deadline, we remove the anticipated consideration from our forecasts’.

He said the shares offered a ‘historic dividend yield of 15.9%’ and while they were covered by earnings they were not by free cashflow ‘and as a consequence net debt increases year-on-year’.

‘Therefore, in our opinion there is likely to be a review of the distribution policy,’ he said.

[retsius] 13/2/2018 10:41

Big buy of 250k this AM. Someone in the know? Or director buy?
Some stirrings in the share price

[rcturner2] 13/2/2018 07:18

3800, I wasn't a holder before the fall.

I have bought 40k shares, the bulk of these at 60.2p.

I think the market has massively overreacted on the down side.

[retsius] 12/2/2018 21:00

Eastbourne 1982
Yes but started to trip stop losses.
Lost a lot in the past. Am now very wary.GLA
R.

[kenmitch] 12/2/2018 19:42

Agree. The book business must have some value.

[3800] 12/2/2018 19:30

Well RCTurner2 I wish I had panicked when the share price had it's last crisis at over £1 time will tell if holding on is the best thing or not.
3800

[eastbourne1982] 12/2/2018 19:18

retsius,

So you say you bailed when sentiment is at an all time low, doesn't that sound like poor investing, shouldn't you do the opposite ?

[edmundshaw] 12/2/2018 18:39

Some of the book business has to be profitable. And there must be some decent prospects if a bid was made. If it needs "restructuring" so be it. But I don't believe it has no value.

[kenmitch] 12/2/2018 18:07

Can’t see the point of taking legal action as if they can’t pay they can’t! It’s only a small part of the business so better to try and run it for modest losses and run it down.

As for the dividend ...a cut seems likely. Even if halved it would be a still very useful 7% or so and a cut would help to counter the losses from the book business they’re now lumbered with.

Cash generation is good and debt lower. Looks a very good risk/reward at current bombed out price with bad news priced in. As long as there is no new bad news ahead!

[turbocharge] 12/2/2018 16:07

The newspaper distribution business earnings should be sufficient to pay the current dividends. Plus the Click & Collect distribution should be able to leverage by attracting more customers. Is synergy between the different businesses of Connect can be improved, then the lower costs for Tuffnells will enable it to grow leading to better return on capital employed.

On balance, as a holder, I remain optimistic.

[rcturner2] 12/2/2018 15:53

I think we can see a few people who have been panicked into selling their stake. I am very surprised that people react like this. Time will tell who is right here.

[w1ndjammer] 12/2/2018 15:45

retsius

yes thanks for selling me your stock, this looks an interesting one
not expecting anything very exciting, more a divi earner, boring will be good.

WJ.

[edmundshaw] 12/2/2018 15:12

Adjusted continuing PBT in 2017 was £48m. Clearly we expect somewhat less this year, but not a disaster - and that includes startup/gearup costs for Pass The Frigging Parcel and ongoing 7 digit losses there. On that basis £83m debt is not particulary large. Of course it could be a problem if interest rates rise to over 40%. But I don't think the economy is quite that bad just yet.

[retsius] 12/2/2018 14:39

Yes, bailed this AM.(with loss)
Sentiment is at an all time low for the stock and the Broker note did not help.

[zimbtrader] 12/2/2018 14:19

£83 million is still a lot of debt. And it is a mighty big IF when talking about IF they sell the books division.

I agree regards brokers!