Condor Gold Share Discussion Threads

[dexdringle] 19/12/2023 09:36

I can't believe we've had a post from book5 without him mentioning that there's no news from 'the village' 🤣

[book5] 19/12/2023 09:25

The problem of selling La India is like selling a 2014 Honda Civic tourer diesel with low mileage in London; only Irish buyers are interested, but at low prices.

For the CNR case, Change Irish to Chinese. The neighboring Canadians may offer even less.

imho CNR will not go much higher from here, but I will be happy to be wrong

[septblues] 19/12/2023 08:27

La India alone has c 1m ozs of gold

NPV c $400m was struck at $1700 per oz

each $100 increase on the price of gold adds $100m to the nominal value of La India give or take a discount factor

[888icb] 19/12/2023 08:13

Moved Up straight from the opening. Now Up 3.4% at 22.75p on volume of 151000. The rise continues.

[zangdook] 18/12/2023 16:23

Not been involved with many other Mellon vehicles, have you?

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 18/12/2023 15:55

The assets are for sale, however I think it is almost a given that this is a smokescreen to avoid the regulation of a company sale. I don't think how it is sold matters much to us, I'm confident we will get a chunk of money however it is currently dressed up.

[vermilion1966] 18/12/2023 15:52

DDD's 'thoughts' assume the Company is for sale. It's not - the assets are. So no future 'performance' payments.

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 18/12/2023 15:41

The Undervalued Shares Report alluded to by ddd makes fascinating reading and whilst they state it is entirely speculative in nature it smells of accuracy.

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 18/12/2023 15:39

Never left OG, just didn't see much to talk about.

I've made direct contact with Mark periodically over the last year or so, he can't say much but reading between the lines I remain confident that I will get my money back and there will be a small profit. Not what I was hoping for 14 years ago and certainly a probable loss based on opportunity cost and inflation but a small profit nevertheless.

As Mark says in this:



"We continue to get new people interested as the gold price goes up. … The
reason why we haven't reached a definitive sales agreement yet is really
just the price. … We ask all shareholders to be patient with us. … The directors and chairman own 28% of the company, we all want to maximise the
value for shareholders… We are now in very advanced discussions with two
particular parties."

[oldiegoldie] 18/12/2023 15:31

Sir Andrew back on the BB. Great!
Let’s see how we will look back at this period in 1 year from now

[zangdook] 18/12/2023 15:28

Is there any public information to justify the suggestion that the next few weeks will be more interesting than the last year? Not that I'm aware of.

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 18/12/2023 15:17

Interesting thoughts from ddd on lse:

"
This report has only just found its way to me today so I may be out of date if it has already been kicked around on this board. For those that have not seen it, the report is dated December 12th 2023 and may well explain some of the new interest in the past week or so. It kicks around some recent history, but its main contention appears to be as follows (taken directly from it):

'Providing a target price is difficult given the circumstances mentioned above. Here's a guess.

For a bid to be acceptable for the board and major shareholders, it will have to consist of two components:

-An initial pay-off of no less than 35 pence per share.

-Performance-based additional payments that can take the total pay-off to shareholders to somewhere between 50-60 pence per share.

Last but not least, there is an additional potential outcome. Given the number of firms that have been circling this opportunity and with now not one but two potential bidders in advanced conversations, one bidder putting in an official bid could lead to counter-bid(s). A Chinese

buyer would probably make an all-cash bid, since Chinese shares are not generally accepted as an acquisition currency and given how cash-rich some Chinese gold miners are.

As ever, these are my conclusions drawn from following all the publicly available material on Condor Gold. There are no guarantees, and investors need to draw their own conclusions ahead of investing. However, the current facts do point in a certain direction. As the company's

CEO and 2.4% shareholder, Mark Child, said in a video interview on 6 December 2023:

"We continue to get new people interested as the gold price goes up. … The reason why we haven't reached a definitive sales agreement yet is really just the price. … We ask all shareholders to be patient with us. … The directors and chairman own 28% of the company, we all want to maximise the value for shareholders… We are now in very advanced discussions with two particular parties."

My view is that this is an entirely plausible scenario, even the prices suggested appear attainable, especially given the strengthening price of gold. 35p could easily be 40p by January with another circa 20p on top over the next two or three years. Ironically, this brings me back to my 60 -65p scenario of a year ago.

Assuming this is a possible, perhaps even probable, outcome, I'll revive earlier questions about how a distribution would be made, and what the share price might get to prior to an initial distribution. If overall value is, say, 55p, we could see the share price hitting the upper 40s until a distribution, before slipping back to what the market perceives as the residual (post initial distribution) value, expressed in marcap terms (SP). In other words 15 - 20p, depending on expectations of future payouts (less costs of maintaining the company).

As for the initial distribution, will it be a cash dividend, buybacks, or a combination of both?

As we debate the outcome, and wait for the white smoke, I just can't see any reason why the share price should not return to the low 30s over the next few weeks. 35p is just a guess at this point. It may well be a higher initial payout and a lower residual.

So, if bidding does become competitive in the next few weeks we could end up with a scenario where a Western domiciled bidder offers an initial payout plus a delayed performance based residual vs. a straightforward cash bid from a Chinese operator. That would indeed make the whole thing interesting. In this sort of situation the share price could go all over the place, and it might even pressurise a Western bidder to match with its own all cash offer. This might well be the best outcome, out best chance of getting somewhere close to what the company is actually worth.

There are so many scenarios here. There are a few interesting weeks ahead."

[dexdringle] 15/12/2023 10:53

Q. How do you make a small fortune?

A. Start with a large fortune and give it to MC and JM to manage.....

[diggybee] 15/12/2023 10:43

What a fabulous result for a life's work.

[book5] 14/12/2023 15:38

Minimum 22p is possible

[oldiegoldie] 14/12/2023 10:13

I think this is the final share dumping for limiting the loss of the directors.
Small consultancy fee for 888 so he started posting again after a few months of silence in shame, a few morons buying the share up to 18 or maybe even 20-25p in the coming days, and then the crooks will press “offload”; with a smile

[zangdook] 14/12/2023 08:39

If the placing investors know something we don't it's probably that Mellon is going to crack and accept one of the low offers they've had. Yes, it may be over 15p, but it won't be much over.

[book5] 14/12/2023 06:21

Or the offer is higher than the current price; hence, some are buying
Price is the best indicator
this in spite that Nicaragua is a basket case and risks are always very high.
1.8 million is not easy to raise after may be 100 already spend, the new investors may have more info than the rest of us
My contacts do not have news

[zangdook] 14/12/2023 00:53

I'd say the price reflected the information a few days ago at 14p. Now what's happened is either
- some people have been fooled into thinking 'if people will invest 1.8m @ 15p there must be a deal around the corner'
- some of the 15p buyers are manipulating the price to dump their stock at a profit.

[oldiegoldie] 13/12/2023 17:28

Yea but the 2% will probably go into companies that actually have all the land.

[win2003] 13/12/2023 17:13

Market is a swinging pendulum discovering a mean position.
The proportion of investment funds in gold and gold miners is currently less than one half of one percent of total investment wealth. It can be argued that the long term mean of 2% will be rediscovered given time, on the way to a higher figure as the pendulum swings.

[dexdringle] 13/12/2023 16:52

<<<<888ICB 13 Dec '23 - 15:54 - 11905 of 11908

The current share price is essentially irrelevant and saying the assets cannot be worth £1 per share just because the share price is currently 18p is not a rational argument >>>>>

The market is not irrational. Share prices correctly reflect all information which is available to all participants. There is no such thing as a 'bargain'....

[dexdringle] 13/12/2023 16:49

They wouldn't.