Colt Telecom Share Discussion Threads

[mirko] 17/10/2014 12:05

"I am delighted to join Colt and look forward to driving profitable revenue growth, creating improved commercial focus across the business and increasing shareholder value."

[dickbush] 17/10/2014 11:09

US Futures are up 1% plus currently.

[dickbush] 17/10/2014 09:51

Shares Magazine, from my quick look, seems to recommend shares on the basis of charts. I don't know if that is after considering the fundamentals of the business or not. We all know the fundamentals for Colt are pretty poor currently and I am not looking for "light at the end of the tunnel" until the First qtr IMS on May 1st 2015. So, if you are a very short term trader, gargleblaster, you may make a decent profit on the short side. Just remember what's been said about potential corporate action. Fidelity, essentially, own and manage this one and, at last, they seem to be focused on it.

[robwt] 17/10/2014 09:34

Shmag...why not write Shares Magazine and I could have ignored the advice.

[dickbush] 17/10/2014 08:55

gargleblaster, Colt is in the midst of its third corporate reorganisation. It has been doing this every couple of years while promising growth in Revenue and EBITDA which never comes. The current one is, however, the most serious yet and you can read about it in the news flow over the past year.

The reason NOT to short it is that it has already fallen 20% in the past few weeks. More seriously, as the comments here will have told you, Fidelity is the majority shareholder and there is a very real prospect of a sale of Colt as it has been a dud operationally and, thereby, a dud investment for their funds.

I very rarely short because there is always the chance that some idiot will come along and bid out of the blue. There is a real prospect of a sale of Colt and sooner rather than later by the look of today's announcement.

[palace andy] 17/10/2014 08:44

Shmag = Shares Magazine??

[palace andy] 17/10/2014 08:39

Hmm Ferrari leaving. He was on secondment from Fidelity, so perhaps this is the first stage in selling off the business? Probably not, but I can't help wondering!

[robwt] 17/10/2014 08:33

gargleblaster....who or what is Schmag, I have never heard of them, maybe it is a typo. There are no traded options, so can you explain the best way to short Colt, I don't do spread bets.

[dickbush] 17/10/2014 08:00

I see Ferrari is leaving. Right idea but the wrong senior manager.

Less than a week since Abi Johnson took over as CEO. I hope this isn't a coincidence, although they must have been interviewing for his potential replacement for a while. It seems to me that Fidelity must have been taking a more serious interest in this investment for several months, at least.

[gargleblaster] 17/10/2014 07:03

Am a bit surprised that Shmag had this listed down as a prime shorting opportunity in view of the fact that the NAV (assets - liabilities) is about 18% greater than current market cap. However share price seems to be going nowhere fast, growth is non-existent and there is no divi - so what's to like?

[dickbush] 16/10/2014 23:49

Just come back from a night out and missed the last half hour or so, although Colt seems to have closed at the same price as when I left which is disappointing.

robwt, we must be investment twins. I did much the same with Lloyds although I no longer own them. I never did like owning bank shares. Pity I didn't take the same attitude with telecom shares. Colt has been too much like hard work to make a buck, and I left way too much on the table in KCOM and BT.

[robwt] 16/10/2014 18:53

I bought Lloyds TSB when the reports were worse than Tesco, I am very happy to say that they have been good.

Colt will come good I believe. I don't even think they are much of a gamble, they are just unloved, mainly because Fidelity are happy with this management for the time being. They are the experts, so let's just say I am not going to lose any sleep over the share price dropping 20% on piddly little volume.

There are two dead cert outlooks on a bid. It is or it isn't gonna happen soon.

[dickbush] 16/10/2014 14:30

I put Tesco on my followed list after the recent fiasco but I haven't bought yet. I'm waiting to see what the final dividend is. If the yield works out at 4% plus I'll join you because it doesn't seem to me to be impossible for Tesco to fight back against Lidl and Aldi with their cash flow, and the new management seems to be highly regarded. Time for the company to get back to its roots. What was it? Pile 'em high and sell 'em cheap?

[robwt] 16/10/2014 14:18

DB someone is making dosh, it just isn't us. But good things come to those who wait.

If the shares are available you will get the order filled normally, but it aint like buying Tesco which I have just done with the click of a button. Call me mad on that one, but I think they are cheap.

I had some trouble with Colt some time ago on an order when the price was 107p. It was filled, but not immediately, which is normal for Colt. They went on to hit 140 plus but they are still mine, didn't take the profit and went on holiday away from it . That is where I sometimes kick myself at holding long term. But I stick to the long term strategy with Colt.

I am hoping Colt will come good in the next year or so. Abby will be keen to show she can reel in some big gains, wait and see.

[dickbush] 16/10/2014 13:08

I don't think it's baffling. The MM's are buying at heavily discounted prices in the expectation that the market will not fall much further short term and have enough of a discount from last night's close that, even if they are wrong, they can move the offer price up enough to make a profit. Nice work if you can get it.

I've put on another 5k to buy close to the current offer and higher than my last attempt which hasn't dealt. I'll bet I only get the shares if we take another leg down and they can drop their bids again.

US Future price has recovered substantially from its low today.

Late flash: happily, I lost that bet. I've dealt.

And the first order has dealt. Now going long against my basic position.

[robwt] 16/10/2014 12:59

I have been watching it with interest, it is baffling. But as Colt were removed from the LIFFE traded options quite a while back, the share price doesn't worry me that much, we have been here before too many times.

In the old days Colt were a traded share, they aren't anymore because the amount out (the float) there for sale is so limited. There is no volume and if someone wanted 250k shares, I don't believe the order would be filled today at these prices. The 100k sells today is misleading, it isn't Fidelity selling.

Colt do not figure on the screens of the big players, so MMs rule.

[dickbush] 16/10/2014 11:56

It doesn't look as though equity markets are taking any notice of this as is typical of a panic. I'm sure the implications will be picked up soon.

[dickbush] 16/10/2014 11:45

This is priceless. Now 115.8 to 118.5. I had an order on to buy 5k, the normal market size, at 115.7. Less than that has gone through on the buy side and just a couple of small sells. I hope you are watching this, robwt.

[dickbush] 16/10/2014 11:39

It seems there are no more sellers at 113. Now 114.9 to 115.7 and only a couple of small sells so far.

[dickbush] 16/10/2014 11:31

FYI

The MM's have now widened the spread to over 3 points, 113 to 116.3. My offer to buy is much nearer the offer than the bid but still the only trades are sells. It seems the MM's are trying to buy Colt shares at very depressed prices with the intention of running them up a few points either later this afternoon or tomorrow.

[dickbush] 16/10/2014 11:13

MM's are a gutless mob. I'm trying to buy around the mid-point of a 2 point spread with nothing but selling going on and, guess what, no deal.

[dickbush] 15/10/2014 15:00

FTSE 100 now down as near 10% as makes no difference and US Indices closing in on it.

[dickbush] 15/10/2014 11:29

IMS due out tomorrow week, the 23rd. I was assuming more of the same i.e EBITDA down 8% y/y and Revenue continuing to decline qtr/qtr as the elimination of the non-profitable voice side continues. But the really poor performance of the share price makes me wonder if EBITDA may be even worse.

I'm not "expecting" any good news on EBITDA until the first qtr of 2015 IMS which is due out on May 1st. Call that "hoping".

[robwt] 15/10/2014 10:28

When do they next make a report.