Cls Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 30/6/2022 16:44

riverman - I think on the contrary, CLI portfolio first class



For sure it will be scaled down; but a 20% Tender at, say, 330p would deliver "value" of c230p/share - a hefty 12% uplift.

As always, it's a case of doing the maths & making a value judgement. In my estimation there is a nice turn to be made at this level.

[riverman77] 30/6/2022 10:20

Do we have any idea how big this tender offer will be? It will presumably be scaled back - if it only covers, say, 20% of shares then probably not worth buying CLS just for that. Not keen on office exposure right now, unless modern, eco buildings in thriving city centres (not sure CLS portfolio fits that description which seems to be more suburban offices?).

[skyship] 30/6/2022 10:08

The share price has drifted & the Market seems to have forgotten the Tender Offer in c2months time; so have bought back in at 205.3p inc SD. That = a 41.4% discount.

[skyship] 18/5/2022 16:50

CLI back up to 221p. A very welcome move; yet the NAV discount still 36.9% to Dec'21 EPRA NAV of 350.5p.

[strathroyal] 12/5/2022 11:08

Latest accounts show that they had sold two small properties which were due to complete in H1, total value £10.1M. Beyond that, there was a general comment that they were looking to sell any/all of their smaller properties but I can't find any stats showing individual property values.

The RNS does suggest that their have been additional sales this half year but my initial thoughts are that this doesn't suggest a substantial buyback.

[sammu] 11/5/2022 14:31

I don't think it is quite as simple as that but we will see.

[skyship] 11/5/2022 13:21

Sammu - imagine you are a trustee of the Morstedt Family Trust.

At 206p the yield on their holding is currently 3.7%; and may rise to 4%.

At 310p the yield would be 2.5%; and may rise to 2.8%.

Sell their holding for c £600m and reinvest into commercial bricks & mortar for a yield of c6%.

QED.......& that is why it would make good sense to sell out.

IMO it will inevitably happen - just a matter of timing.

[sammu] 11/5/2022 12:20

I don't see it as that likely that the family want to sell. Just because there is a wide discount to Nav?
They have just announced a boost to their dividend income stream and with Tender offers back on the agenda too, they can tender up to their allowance (and therefore keep the same percentage holding - someone was asking a while ago, I think this is what they used to do) for extra proceeds.

[skyship] 11/5/2022 09:54

Added at c195p, then again at c199p. Thankfully the share price rose very slowly this morning.

Now at 206p the Epra NAV discount still = 41.2%; and the Statutory NAV discount = 36.9%.

I've mentioned before that IMO the Morstedt family may well be tempted with an appropriate offer, likely from a PE company. Seeing the shares trade at this discount and low yield, the family trust would do well to cash in at around the 300p level.

[nickrl] 11/5/2022 08:48

Whats taken them so long and been surprised no one has tried to buy them out given the discount they've been running. Just need to sell the properties now to fund into an uncertain market though.

[skyship] 11/5/2022 08:08

Great news for CLI holders - terms of a tender will be announced in August:

[hindsight] 04/5/2022 12:26

strathroyal, was replying to Skyship, if locked out FT then removing FT from browser cookies resets article limit

[strathroyal] 03/5/2022 22:10

Hindsight - I have no idea what that comment means, can't you access the article?

[hindsight] 03/5/2022 15:34

Or remove FT from browser cookie list

[strathroyal] 02/5/2022 10:46

I'm not a subscriber, try typing in the headline, World's biggest property investors buy into 'science superpower' UK

[skyship] 02/5/2022 07:43

FT - for subscribers only.

[strathroyal] 01/5/2022 15:08

Hindsight - yes but in that scenario, everyone else would be interested and you wouldn't get anywhere near this level of discount.

An interesting article from yesterday's FT,

[hindsight] 01/5/2022 10:53

Skyship, yes but depends how you view the conference call, where the FD said comfortable with LTV 35% to 40% or higher. Which for me means I pencil in 40% on my risk model. Then if use that the 41% discount only needs a 22% fall in assets to be wiped out and a lot lower than 22% fall to hit loan covenants

Strathroyal, interesting, if a new team came in and sold some assets at book which would reduce the LTV and give some confidence in book values, I for one would be keener to add

[strathroyal] 30/4/2022 16:30

My biggest holding at the moment having put most of my MCKS sale/profits here. I was quite intrigued to see a reasonable number of dissenting shareholders voting against re-electing four of the directors at this year's AGM and the negative votes were at a higher level than last year. Even at NAV of 326p, the discount is 37%, which should go someway to underpinning the share price.

[skyship] 29/4/2022 21:10

"LTV at 37.1% (2020: 33.7%) reflecting net acquisitions during the year."

[nickrl] 29/4/2022 18:49

I also thought unpicking the UK element out into a REIT would have given them a boost although not sure when this will happen.

[hindsight] 29/4/2022 15:27

Question I keep asking too. Trying to get a handle on where office will go. What is clear is they are aware office will need to be top grade going forward and at 40% LTV betting heavy.

[skyship] 29/4/2022 14:35

At some stage these ought to break out of their doldrum and play a little catch up with the rest of the sector; though will still be constrained by their 100% office allocation.

How should we value them - on EPRA NAV (350.5p) or statutory NAV (326.6p). Any views?

They constantly refer to the former, so on that basis the discount @ 206p = 41.2%. Seems somewhat excessive!

[essentialinvestor] 16/3/2022 13:28

It will do me nicely, out for a quick few %.

[hindsight] 16/3/2022 11:44

Good results but poor answers on webcast regarding gearing and buybacks.