I bought some MAB too.. They are relatively big in Germany, and they often have a reasonable run up in the first half of the year no idea why - looking at 5 year chart - probably just coincidence) |
Having a DAX tracker I know, even though the economy is not great its up 22% in the relatively short time I've had it..
This can only happen if the companies in the DAX have share prices going up...
A rising tide raises all boats.
You have to be in it to win it. |
NESF & SEIT certainly a whole lot less straightforward than a property company.
Remember too that 54% of CLI is in Germany & France; also it seems Spring Mews progressing (see link in 402 above) - if too slowly! |
I'm with @WShak, the LTV needs mentioning in any post about CLI's financials.
Yes, it's not going bust, unlike some who had debts at group level in the GFA.
But being non-recourse didn't save several others - HMSO, INTU too I think. Or rather, HMSO never went bust but did fall 90%+.
Personally I think that's largely in the price at CLI, but Opportunity Cost - there's better yields and much better gearing at other things like NESF, SEIT etc. |
WShak - good post |
I own a lot of CLS but I see the greatest risk as it is over-leveraged with gearing too high. They hope to fix that with asset sales but Spring Mews was meant to comp,etc in Dec 2024, yet no announcement yet.Should the gross value of properties be marked down again, LTV could go up further again, with potential issues with loan covenants.Against that, many of CLS properties are grouped together in non-recourse SPVs which should protect them in an adverse scenario. |
thanks..
I bought a few (being a pensioner I do like a good yield).. |
7.95p dividend covered 1.3x by EPRA EPS.
Yield at 74p is 10.74% and the NAV Discount = 67.5%.
The upcoming Update ahead of next month's Prelims will hopefully confirm retained dividend.
The shares are absurdly cheap; laid low by over-rated WFH fears.
Read the link in my 402 above. |
interesting....
google says 10.73% dividend yield..
Is that how you see it?
Does the dividend look reasonably safe? |
Thanks rotherslade - that gets us through to this: |
Under updates if you scroll down |
Strath - could you please provide a link to that comment... |
Don't think that they help themselves by being such poor communicators who put a fair amount of information about lettings on their LinkedIn account (clsholdings linkedin)rather than releasing either an RNS or just to their website. Today's comment about German lettings being a good example. |
price turned just after US inflation numbers. reduces expectations/likelihood for BBR cuts |
For sure a disappointing day. This morning looking like some progress at last; then the air goes out of it yet again. I live in hope... |
Don't sense a big seller at CLI like there are/have been at a number of others, but it just can't seem to keep its pants up. |
Feel free to move the price as high as you like.
I bought some more CREI last week, making it my largest REIT. This one looks cheaper, but until we get some meaningful update I feel it will stay at these levels. At least the latest small rise doesn't appear to immediately sold down as all the others have been. |
Picking up more CLS Holdings recently at sub 75p.
#CLI very, very illiquid due to small free float, difficult to buy in modest size without moving the price. |
 Trying to add a little more structure to the framework loglorry1 - rightmove shows the cheapest apartments 1 beds in the area from 350k. This is a an ex-council block in need of redevelopment so not a good comparison. There's really very little below the 500k mark. The best comparison is the Keybridge 1 bed for sale on a low floor for 600k; towards nine elms so arguably a slightly better area. Completed a few years back so won't contain the 5-10% new build premiums which new properties sell for.
The Prince of Wales development in Battersea I know a well (more desirable area but new 1 beds there start at 850k upwards; 2 beds 1m+ and as you go higher in floor and better aspect (river or park views = big premiums). All together - I don't think a 700-850k estimate is a bad conservative guess when adding in the premium for penthouses, higher floors, some will be two beds etc. So that is a residential GDV of 350m to 425m excluding value of commercial units etc.
Again Keybridge apartments are 1 bed 60 sq/m and two bed 80 sq/m it seems. Let's take the development at an average of 75 sq/m per unit. Google development costs gives 1.8-3k per square metre. Taking the higher figure that is 112.5m development cost.
Tbh, all sounding a bit too good to be true and given we're working off assumptions from a novice undoubtedly it is and I am missing some big aspects - I mean the biggest is that the planning application isn't even in yet. I more think it is an interesting thought experiment to show this site has a underlying fundamental value - which is what we're looking for in the portfolio vs. reflected in the share price. |
Can't imagine an apartment there would sell for less than £500k. 500 apartments would be £250m gross. Obviously loads of development costs etc but even if £200k per apt to CLS thats £100m which is huge compared to the market cap of £300m. Guessing numbers here so may be completely wrong. |
Spring Gardens / Citadel place development application has lost the student accommodation but materially increased the housing from 180-200 to circa 500 apartments. It is 7m extra rent but I can't help but feel they are going to use the Labour governments pro-growth & build rhetoric to go bigger and why not.
No Way CLS have the skills or knowledge to take on a project like this so surely the plan is to get planning and then sell the site to a house builder. Another site in the portfolio with huge fundamental value... albeit planning pack submitted in Q2; can't imagine it'll be a quick process for a project of this size. |
the way i see it is this is a buy and forget stock. Property should be worth a lot more than 2012 levels so its a waiting game now |
I hold this as a dividend machine - like a property with a very high mortgage. The risk in the cost of servicing the debt; but the reward is then priced accordingly. Interest rates on their way down. |
@Farrugia certainly improves things but 5yr swap rates are siting 2-3 times higher than they were and CLI has borne the brunt of that over last few years as they've had refi loans at very low rates a lot higher pushing up the interest charges. That said they were never over paying out on the divi and it was extremely well covered so never had to take a haircut unlike others. As long as occupancy levels hold up, and there is an if in that, they can square away this years refi load and still just about cover the divi. That ought to e more than enough to support the share price and move it up but can't see 100p anytime soon as offices are not yet out of the woods as we now have AI threat compounding WFH. |
doesn't the fact that the bank of england is reducing interest rates make it more favourable for companies wanting to raise debt at acceptable rates? |
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