Decided to come on board here, assured by the presence of Skyship's analysis.
No pressure.
;)
Does seem like an overlooked situation, which I also noticed on a Paul Scott buy list for 2025. |
Although we've yet to have a RNS regarding recent property sales, I see that the CLS website has reduced the number of properties owned from 81 to 80 today. Looks to be one of the UK properties although not Spring Mews. No doubt they'll update us shortly. |
As I stated on the VALU thread on New Year's day:
"As regards any further falls in the NAV; if you slash another 15% from 227.4p to 193.3p the discount would still be 59.6%! Slash by 25% and still 54.3% discount...
The shares have fallen so far, so totally friendless that the resulting NAV discount is almost irrelevant. It is the dividend that is more important.
The dividend of 7.95p is covered 1.3x by EPS; and looks totally secure. So that 10.2% yield handsomely rewards as we await events." |
The good thing about well diversified REITs is that you don't get a calamity; other than sentiment against their chosen sector.
We've had that in spades of course; but the valuation takes everything into account. A 66% discount and 10.2% yield suggests a new year rally more than likely. |
Indeed yield now firmly above 10% but market is clearly expecting a calamity still!! |
Looks like ending the year at a new low. Where is the spring mews sale? |
Look what Christmas Eve did! |
SP now at multi year low. |
GPE is 99% London, from memory
and within London they are geographically tightly focussed.
Their vacancy rate is also negligible.
They specialise to Grade A office space and rapidly growing flex space offering. I'm not making a buy case for GPE here, just facts.
There are older offices a plenty in Surrey
that are lying idle for years now. It's extraordinary to think these were once hives of activity and now left desolate. |
The IC states this in their article on office player GPE:
"A bargain way to bet on the office market recovery. With the pandemic well and truly a thing of the past, now is the perfect time to reconsider these unloved assets"
You wouldn't believe any recovery in offices sentiment looking at the CLI sp! |
Looks like they have updated/revamped their website, very good. |
There really is something radically wrong with the UK stock market when a share such as this barely trades. |
And bought a few more again this am. |
The reasoning is here, dated 27 Novemberhttps://development.towerhamlets.gov.uk/online-applications/applicationDetails.do?activeTab=documents&keyVal=DCAPR_142995 |
But why (given the latest planning bad news)? |
Well, that bounced! |
Bought some more this am. |
Any issue is on UK vacancy rates, would guess the market is focused on this, besides reducing gearing. |
"Decision - 1. The appeal is dismissed."
I would very much like to hear the reasoning behind such a misguided decision.
Such decisions should be taken out of the hands of braindead councillors. |
Not sure why office users would want more space per employee. Cost-cutting the order of the day, and fewer employees with the NIC rise.
But that's UK of course - fewer employees on the continent with a sclerotic economy. Interesting that both France and Germany going to have unexpected GEs soon.
The word "eventually" is doing a lot of heavy lifting, but I'd not argue CLI is expensive. Just that there's better things to buy, with more potential upside and more divi safety.
5 years? The definition of a long-term trade is a short-term one gone wrong ;)
@loglorry1 - not on financials it ain't, tho agree GSF in particular is opaque. It's also mind-bendingly cheap IMO. If it was single-country it would have been taken out by now IMO, & still wouldn't rule it out. |
Obviously technology is not a strong point!
Appeal Ref: APP/E5900/W/24/3345893
9 Prescot Street, Tower Hamlets, London E1 8PR
• The appeal is made under section 78 of the Town and Country Planning Act 1990 (as
amended) against a refusal to grant planning permission.
• The appeal is made by CLS Prescot Ltd against the decision of the Council of the London
Borough of Tower Hamlets.
• The application Ref is PA/24/00057.
• The development proposed is the change of use from office use (Class E) to a dual
hybrid use for higher education uses (Class F1(a)) and office use (Class E).
Decision
1. The appeal is dismissed. |
CLI is much better quality than GSF and SEIT. The latter worry me esp GSF and I wouldn't invest. Offices might be out of fashion but I don't really think AI and home working will kill them off. |
Not sure what it's about, but in general at least part of CLI's problem is how much cheap stuff there is out there. Why would I buy over-geared, debt-risk (but not bankruptcy risk) CLI yielding 10%, versus eg SEIT, getting sold down by Rathbones, at 12%. Or NESF at 12%, or GSF at 14%.
Because it offers more potential upside if you believe that well located semi prime offices will eventually be dragged up by Prime's increasing rentals/restricted availability, especially as WFH slowly reverses as appears to be happening. And office users want more space per employee.
Which is going to be higher in 5 years?
I own all four having recently bought back SEIT, Gore and NESF. Also bought FGEN
I assume CLS suffering from exposure to France |
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