Almost mid price to sell, fwiw. Market looking for stock for the moment. |
In at 93p with a chunk - unusually had to pay top end of the spread. I'm moving from Growth to income.
I like that this is family owned even though I understand there are some challenges. Interest rates seem flat or declining (although not by much and slowly), and am more confident in economic recovery with a more Europe friendly (although not by much and slowly) administration. I am happy to be paid to wait while sentiment filters into the SP |
No harm in a little optomism I guess... |
Would expect the sale of the student property to be at least £120M. The recent results show that the present value of the student building is £96.7M (see note 9,Investment Properties, Transfer to properties held for sale). The recent H1 report talks of strong performance from our student operations so they aren't looking to give it away. |
£100m would be nice. You can look at it on the companies house website (31/12/22). Investment property £88.525M and revenue £5.976M. Will probably be +10% from that already. Might be quite a lot of costs or running it but should get 5-6% yield for it? |
Selling the student accommodation should bring in about £100m?
This is very low yielding so should be positive re dividend cover. |
 Had posted this on the other CLS thread earlier
The relentless climb of interest charges is squeezing free cash here now but the fact that their dividend wasn't the most generous pre covid means they've kept in covered until now. My forward forecast is its at 97% now and even with disposals lowering the debt can't see it rebalancing by FY as they have a big debt load to refi in 2025 and even with lower interest rates overall finance charge will rise further. Vacancy rate remains high and like any office operators now the probability of any reversion on it is pretty low and repurposing or sales is the only way forward.
Now had a further look at the report
- other income has been flattered by retention of part of the deposit from the abortive sale of Westminster first time round
-H1 disposals are at impressive 3.3% yield so big hit on NRI yet
-Breaks/Expires are c22% of portfolio over next 12mths so could imperil NRI further
-LTV>50% but 20m of cash from Westminster still to come
-400m of debt (41%) needs refi in 25 75% is sterling. Been relying upon short term refis on several loans that a disposal targets but comes at a cost of 5.7%
This aint no RGL but NAV declines have yet to stabilise in any country. Also I would say based on the divi policy there is a risk the final could end up below last years although they give themselves plenty of wriggle room with target cover in range 1.2-1.6 of EPRA. That said current share price more than covers these risks but suspect upside is limited until valuations stabilise and vacancy rate starts declining. |
9% isn't a great yield for a weak subsector tho - if there's eg SHED at 6.3%/-25% in a still booming sector, or pushing 8% elsewhere, why CLI?
I'd like to see disposals, ideally near revised NAV, ideally not just of the better let stuff. |
Thank you strathroyal |
NTV - Latest balance sheet from Companies House (31/12/22) investment property £88.525M and revenue £5.976M |
Using the other thread now... |
Great yield and still a massive NAV discount. So I'll stay in for sure.
Everything slowly improving; so at some stage the share price likely to reflect that fact. |
Yes, it's been a value trap, but with the board seeing a clearer bottoming out of valuations and interest rates declining, I personally feel there is a reason to see the nav discount narrow. That means share price appreciation. On a prospective yield of 9% and shareprice growth in the months a years ahead, it seems an excellent long term hold. I do appreciate there must be a lot of frustrated investors sitting on sizable losses here, but that economics for you! |
The sop of a letting but otherwise agreed.
Only a small holding left here and only the discount/yield keeping me in, but been a clear value trap so far. They're in no danger of doing an RGL and going effectively bust (as far as shareholders are concerned), but seems a long road back, in a declining sector. |
Looks like a period of slow progress. Assets continue to depreciate (compare to the increase at BBOX), loan to value is too high and vacancy rate hasn’t dropped enough. But still a decent yield and huge discount to NAV so I’ll hold on for a bit longer. |
The relentless climb of interest charges is squeezing free cash here now but the fact that their dividend wasn't the most generous pre covid means they've kept in covered until now. My forward forecast is its at 97% now and even with disposals lowering the debt can't see it rebalancing by FY as they have a big debt load to refi in 2025 and even with lower interest rates overall finance charge will rise further. Vacancy rate remains high and like any office operators now the probability of any reversion on it is pretty low and repurposing or sales is the only way forward. |
How much is the student accommodation worth on the books? |
Half year that is |
Results due tomorrow |
More sales than buys, yet we make progress to 93p. CLI share price movements always rather bizarre! |
Fund 😂😂😂 |
oh well makes them more attractive for a top up |
Now 47000 dumped at 87p in Auction. Weird can't really explain the weakness. Almost deliberate. |
Mental, who sells 64000 in the closing auction at 90p. There seems to be some demented people out there. |
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