Close Brothers Share Discussion Threads

[chriss911911] 20/3/2024 08:42

Modest share price, but not for much longer, I wonder has anyone clocked enough, the data protection element, because in theory data ought to have been removed once 7 years hold if they were as I hope complying with ICO. So lets say 4 year loan expired, we know all loans would be 3 years in anyway since ban, so that would take us back to 2013, not earlier.

So 2013 to 2021, is of course 8 years of claims possible, so 2 loans possible if they are 4 years long, for say 4m people with qualifying loans, with Close 1% of market.

Doing the maths, that's a range of £8m to £160m depending what variables you use, with more not possible, unless to imagine long than 2013, or that Close are a charity and can do the loan for free (IE below their cost).

The market on this has been overtly negative, 20% of loan book is car loans for close, put another way 80% is not, why not compare Lloyd that has 1000% more car loans than Close, rather than make a comparison of proportionality, which miss sells the risk, I think this will balance up, quickly, looks today might be it.

[cirlbunting1] 20/3/2024 08:37

Could also just be cash settled swaps...someone's probably hedging or someone just wants to speculate without the fuss of ownership.

[dplewis1] 20/3/2024 08:18

Berenberg raises target price to 470p from 425p

[the dart] 20/3/2024 07:21

These odd disclosure for bank of America, is Merrill Lynch, who are brokering the swaps presumably for an undisclosed beneficial owner, all rather murky and caused by the FCA, perhaps we should start a complaint page against FCA for this ? Merrill Lynch have already been fined recently for violating financial regulations in the US for that very same practice. It's destructive short term, and perverse of the FCA to leave consumers at risk to this.

The FCA need to support all consumers, especially ones who have invested their hard earned cash in what should be a sold stable business paying a consistent dividend supporting consumers and business for many decades in a responsible way.


When you look at margins for Close, what changed when the rules for commission were band, the answer nothing, well <0.4%, so that tells me they were not profiting meaningfully before, nor are they now, so what was so anti competitive before, so they did not disclose something, fine, that's admin, small fine, but in the end I doubt the car owner lost meaningfully.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) estimated the ban that was put in place 2021 saved customers £165m a year in total, or around £100-£200 on a loan, far away from most of the baseless colourful numbers mentioned, and above what Lloyds has provisioned, the only numbers we have don’t come close to anything built into share price, so it’s pure speculation and fear driving it as in the end we don't know for sure.

Risk, reward, is attractive, here, worst case they take a big hit if FCA *ock this up, as they do only have so much in car loans, so what, the math’s now from this week’s update, mean it would need to be more than 10x what Lloyds had imagined, which would put it worse proportionally than PPI, I don’t see any chance of that, but that then still leaves alot on the table not reflected in price.

IMO the cost will be similar to what Lloyds have said, so under £100m for Close, so in the end comfortable, but until known, speculators will continue tree shaking, so the answer hang on tight and enjoy the ride, this will be a great long term hold IMO and as it was already a stable predictable source of income long after all the speculators depart as they will.

[the codger] 20/3/2024 06:50

5.00 a share nailed on this all day long

[dplewis1] 19/3/2024 20:11

Pretty sure it's some squirrely way of hiding identities and possibly someone building a stake hTTps://www.clearygottlieb.com/~/media/organize-archive/cgsh/files/publication-pdfs/know-your-shareholders-the-use-of-cash-settled-equity-derivatives-to-hide-corporate-ownership-interests.pdfRead the part under "hidden ownership through cash settled equity swaps"

[123trev] 19/3/2024 19:13

One thing is for sure it certainly hits the share price and it’s not exactly clear what’s actually happening perhaps an ex city trader could help seems similar to a type of placing maybe but honestly have no idea and that’s a problem because we should.

[dplewis1] 19/3/2024 18:10

Not seen TR-1s like that before with loads of different expiry swaps .. maybe facilitating short closing? All very odd

[suetballs] 19/3/2024 17:28

Yes you did - I don't understand what is going on either.
Plus I am disappointed that today's early gains petered out.
Suet

[karv1] 19/3/2024 17:18

Did I just see a BOA update % going back up? maybe it me misunderstanding on these holding messages as they are not always clear to me.

[faz] 19/3/2024 16:21

So how much would Mr/Ms Average have paid in interest- this was at a period where rates were low anyway. Not all the interest would be unfair, and what the FCA say is a fair rate will be interesting.

[riverman77] 19/3/2024 12:47

I'd imagine the majority of those claims would be dismissed - lots will just be trying their luck given all the publicity drummed up over this.

[karv1] 19/3/2024 12:15

I think you forgot a zero but I think they mainly concerned with pre 2016. The loan book from 2007 to 2010 was far smaller.and many other factors that would lower it . If they went against us

[stoopid] 19/3/2024 12:07

Yes, but that's still 25k claimants? At least.CBG are right, totally depends on the FCA findings. £2000 per claimant in the above scenario is still 50m. 10k each is 250m.Roll on the final decision...

[riverman77] 19/3/2024 10:27

Very useful snippet on the Q&A - didn't write down the precise figure, but of the million odd complaints received via the Martin Lewis site only 2.5% related to CBG - which would suggest a tiny number of loans potentially affected.

[thebutler] 19/3/2024 08:47

The irony of the FCA review will see CBG emerge in a healthier state in a couple of years time whatever the outcome.

[stoopid] 19/3/2024 08:36

Can't believe stock still being offered under 400.....

[stoopid] 19/3/2024 08:34

Hmm, don't like the effect the reported "AT1" securities will have on EPS.11.125% coupon and starts on 29th of May.Paid from retained earnings and will reduce EPS/profit.

[riverman77] 19/3/2024 08:31

While very tight lipped on the potential scale of any damages, they did note that the small number of cases that had gone to court were found in their favour. Hard to believe the eventual damages would even be a fraction of what's been knocked off the market cap.

[chriss911911] 19/3/2024 08:14

will soon be £5.00 while stock lasts under £4.00 still on offer

[jonnybig] 19/3/2024 08:06

Market likes it 👍

spud

[jonnybig] 19/3/2024 07:51

A massive war chest just in case there is a worse possible outcome.

A very favourable outcome and that war chest will be returned to shareholders imo so definitely a worthwhile hold and add.

spud

[faz] 19/3/2024 07:37

i thin a potential £400m set aside in a year demonstrates this company can withstand a fine/payout. I expected a very cautious statement- i've been in and out of CGB for 30 years and know their style. The main take away is that they're ready and the business ha s now moved on.