Clinigen Share Discussion Threads

[nw99] 09/9/2014 16:13

Momentum behind us in the chart points much higher

[cestnous] 08/9/2014 13:34

The I. C. article;

Buy ahead of Clinigen re-rating
Bull points
High margins Undervalued Experienced management Strong order book
Bear points
Lumpy revenue stream Disappointing 2013
After listing in late 2012, pharmaceutical group Clinigen (CLIN) fast become the darling of London’s junior Aim market. The listing price – 164p
– surged to 690p early this year but some disappointments in half-year results in February led to a substantial share price fall. But with strong full-year numbers looking likely when the company reports its figures later this month, we think there is now considerable ground to make up on the upside. Investors therefore have a second opportunity to buy the stock, this time at a significant discount to 2013 levels.
There are two main reasons Clinigen won rapturous support from investors when it arrived on the London Stock Exchange. The clinical trials market into which Clinigen supplies third-party material is growing at about 15 per cent a year. Secondly, Clinigen’s management had a proven track record in understanding the complex regulation surrounding specialist access to certain drugs – encompassed by its global access programme (GAP) division.
But at the start of 2014, when Clinigen released half-year results for the six months to December, concerns started to build about the shares overheating. The clinical trial supply (CTS) division – responsible for more than 64 per cent of first-half sales – revealed a 13 per cent fall in sales to £39.5m, and it didn’t help that management admitted that a near four percentage point rise in the CTS gross profit margin – to 16.5 per cent – was ‘unsustainable’. Consequently, the shares crashed 17 per cent on the morning the news came out.
But the company still holds substantial promise for future growth and increasing shareholder returns. The specialty pharmaceuticals division, which provides a solid backbone and accounted for just over half gross profits for the first six months of the year, is still in an early stage of development, with management aiming to add six new drugs over the next three to five years. Meanwhile, the CTS segment is forecast to grow 5 per cent in 2015, and GAP, which accounted for 16 per cent of first-half sales, continues to be Clinigen’s fastest-growing division.
Encouragingly, chief executive Peter George says the lumpy nature of the CTS business and the drop in half-year sales was solely the result of strong comparative figures last year, which included a large number of low-margin anti-viral study sales. He also believes an overdependence on CTS revenues as the bulk of sales will soon be a thing of the past.
A bullish trading update released at the end of July has already begun the re-rating of the stock. In it, Clinigen said it expects like-for-like sales growth of more than 7 per cent for 2014, with total revenues of no less than £126m. The GAP division is expected to report 50 per cent sales growth, and CTS should see revenues up more than 11 per cent in the second half compared with the first half.
Continued improvement in gross margins across all the divisions also contributed to a 17 per cent improvement in underlying cash profits as at the end of June, suggesting full-year results should beat analysts’ expectations. Such a solid performance could be down to lower operational costs, and the keen prices paid for two newly acquired speciality pharma drugs: Cardioxane and Savene. And management says there is also potential in Clinigen’s new business pipeline for CTS and GAP, which broker N+1 Singer puts at about £200m.
Come the 2014 annual results on 24 September, investors should glean further clarity on Clinigen’s new business pipeline and how the new speciality pharma products will help drive growth. This could provide the re-rating catalyst the stock needs. We think investors would do well to boost their stake in Clinigen while the shares trade on 16 times 2015 earnings. Buy. HR

After losing its ‘hot stock’ status at the time of its half-year results in February, Clinigen looks set to re-rate

[cfro] 05/9/2014 18:12

Good day today off the back of the IC's online tip. I have been building a position here for the last few days, so pleased it is now bouncing back up. :-)

[nw99] 05/9/2014 14:31

Looks very good sharewatch loves this stock

[hutch_pod] 05/9/2014 11:49

After listing in late 2012, pharmaceutical group Clinigen (CLIN) fast become the darling of London's junior Aim market. The listing price - 164p - surged to 690p early this year, but some disappointments in half-year results in February led to a substantial share price fall. But with strong full-year numbers looking likely when the company reports its figures later this month, we think there is now considerable ground to make up on the upside. Investors therefore have a second opportunity to buy the stock, this time at a significant discount to 2013 levels.



Maybe the reason for the rise. Looking good for results (24th)

[hutch_pod] 02/9/2014 16:45

Useful thanks, for xaar and utw too

[windass] 02/9/2014 15:11

Good analysis on CLIN on this blog

[gucci] 01/9/2014 10:06

out for now

[hutch_pod] 30/8/2014 19:27

Interesting nonetheless

[sjc] 30/8/2014 18:28

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com
Please ignore post, just filing here.

[greenroom78] 22/8/2014 13:38

I get the same problem even though I don't have them on my filter list.

Does this mean I can't access a BB for CLIN?

[liam wilson] 22/8/2014 09:25

VIDEO: Technical Chart Plays: Bushveld Minerals (BMN), Clinigen (CLIG), Frontera Resources (FRR) - bmn, CLIG, FRR - Today, 9:24 AM

[essential] 21/8/2014 15:39

Healthy pullback

[hutch_pod] 21/8/2014 10:55

Thanks MT - don't think that's from ShareProphets though.

710p is a heroic target!

[mechanical trader] 21/8/2014 09:38

From S Prophets.

Clinigen - Acquisition
Today (2014-08-20 11:23:08)Print this Article
by James Faulkner

Clinigen (CLIN), the specialty pharmaceuticals and services company, has announced the acquisition of the global rights to the oncology support therapy, Ethyol (amifostine) from AstraZeneca. Ethyol is a cytoprotective (cell protecting) drug indicated as an adjuvant therapy (i.e. one that modifies the effects of other agents) to reduce the incidence of xerostomia (dry mouth) as a side-effect in patients undergoing post-operative radiation treatment for head and neck cancer.

It also reduces the cumulative renal (kidney) toxicity associated with the repeated administration of cisplatin in patients with advanced ovarian cancer. In 2013, Ethyol revenue was approximately $4.9 million.

Under the terms of the agreement, Clinigen will assume full responsibility for the distribution of the product with immediate effect. AstraZeneca, working closely with Clinigen, will continue to manufacture the product whilst the NDA and Investigational New Drug (IND) authorisations are transferred and the technical transfer to a third party manufacturer is completed. The acquisition will be paid for in milestone related stage payments linked to the transfer of manufacturing. The financial terms of the agreement were not disclosed.

Assessment...

We see it as a positive that Clinigen continues to reduce its reliance on its Foscavir product, especially given the recent weakness seen in this area. Ethyol is the second product Clinigen has acquired from AstraZeneca (the first being the anti-viral Foscavir in 2010), and the group's third oncology support product adding to Cardioxane and Savene bringing the Specialty Pharmaceuticals portfolio to five products in total.

Although we are disappointed by the lack of financial details in today's announcement, if Clinigen can come anywhere close to replicating the success of Foscavir with Ethyol shareholders could see decent returns. Clinigen acquired Foscavir for £9.15 million - a price to sales ratio of 2 times - from AstraZeneca in early 2010. Through its local knowledge and global reach Clinigen has successfully increased pricing around threefold in most countries, has sought (and started to receive) additional regulatory approvals, and is broadening the product's geographic footprint. Sales have grown rapidly from £4.6 million in 2009 to £21.7 million in FY2012.

We retain our belief that Clinigen has a unique combination of businesses that delivers a whole greater than the sum of the parts, which sets it in good stead to realise its ambition of becoming the number one global provider of CTS and GAP services and a major global specialty pharmaceutical company. Furthermore, the cash generative nature of the business means that acquisitions, for the most part, should be able to be funded internally from cashflow.

Valuation...

House broker Numis has noted the potential for "over 100% upside to its 5-year forecasts", should the company meet its stated ambition to become the market leader in both CTS and GAP through organic growth, and to add a further 5-7 specialty pharmaceutical (SP) products over the next 3-5 years (it has now added two since we tipped the shares in April 2013). In this context, we believe the current rating of c.15.1 times 2015 consensus forecast earnings looks like good value, especially when one factors in the rapid earnings growth anticipated over the foreseeable future (PEG

[blueliner] 21/8/2014 07:49

Peel Hunt increase target price from 690p to 710p _ Via Citywire.

[apad] 21/8/2014 07:43

Peter George interview over on p'active.
Refreshing lack of management speak.
apad

[hutch_pod] 20/8/2014 14:21

Thanks Essential, i see it now, I always use exponential for better or worse

Nice chart MT

[mechanical trader] 20/8/2014 13:55

CLINIGEN GROUP BROKER VIEWS

Date Broker Recommendation Price Old target price New target price Notes
20 Aug Investec Buy 429.50 497.00 512.00 Reiterates
20 Aug Numis Buy 429.50 650.00 650.00 Reiterates
20 Aug N+1 Singer Buy 429.50 439.00 439.00 Reiterates

[essential] 20/8/2014 13:31

Hutch that is the exponential dma. I always use the slow 200dma which is at 500p

[mechanical trader] 20/8/2014 13:27

CLIN, RNS out today new drug. Now with the share price off the high of the day is an opportunity to jump abroad. Just bought.

[hutch_pod] 20/8/2014 11:18

i see 200 daily EMA at 435?

[essential] 20/8/2014 11:09

Yep the greater than 400p closing was a good signal. Now long and looking for a price move up to 500p (200 dma) in pretty short order