City Of London Investment Share Discussion Threads

[davebowler] 07/6/2021 08:41

Zeus;
Update leaves forecasts unchanged
What’s new: Updates in April and early May reveal:

Group consolidated Funds Under Management “FuM” of US$11.3bn at the end of April 2021 is up 4.0% year to date (Dec20: US$10.9bn).
Strong investment performance across CLIG’s investment strategies, was offset by clients rebalancing, resulting in 3Q net outflow of US$278m.
CLIG continues to maintain an active pipeline across all its major products.
Income net of third-party commissions currently accrues at circa 74 bps (i.e. c. 73 bps of CLIM’s FUM and c. 77 bps of KIM’s FuM).
Operating profit before profit-share run rate is £3.3m per month based on US$1.38=£1 (at US$1.43=£1 the run rate would be c £3.2m per month).
Sterling has strengthened 13% from below $1.25 to £1 to over $1.40 now.
In May 2021, M1EF, the emerging markets index, rose 1.2% to 662. In the first week of June 2021, the index has risen 2.1% to 676. On 31 May 2021, CLIG’s Group consolidated FuM was $11.5bn (see Exhibit 1).

Zeus view: Increasing funds under management in US dollars has been offset by Sterling strength. Overall, we nudge up our revenue expectations (page 3, exhibit 3) and leave our earnings forecasts unchanged.

Our forecasts assume Sterling strengthens further from US$1.42 to US$1.44 to £1. We will review our forecasts again in July, when we expect a year end trading update for the year to 30 June 2021.

Valuation: At 550p CLIG shares are trading on 11.6x PER and 6.0% dividend yield.

CLIG has a strong balance sheet with no debt and substantial net cash. Over the past 5 years CLIG has delivered annualised Total Shareholder Returns (TSR) of 11% CAGR, with dividends providing 8%, earnings growth c 6% CAGR.

Over the next we expect CLIG to continue to deliver a TSR of over 10% pa, of which half comes from dividends and the other half comes from a combination of earnings growth and multiple expansion.

[montyhedge] 24/5/2021 10:56

It's a good bedtime story, lol.

[eggbaconandbubble] 24/5/2021 07:57

Blimey1 That's 'bedtime reading' for a week!

[montyhedge] 24/5/2021 07:29

Have a read, you might learn something.https://maynardpaton.com/2021/02/24/city-of-london-investment-h1-figures-reveal-record-10-9b-fum-and-astonishing-55-margin-but-client-rebalancing-keeps-p-e-stuck-at-11x/

[2wild] 23/5/2021 18:58

Don't you mean when CLIG average 48p EPS over 5 years, in line with the current stated dividend policy.

[montyhedge] 21/5/2021 16:23

The day we get 48p of earnings then I think 40p dividend. The holy grail of investing shareprice growth and rising dividends.

[montyhedge] 16/5/2021 12:12

Just watched video, very good, no special dividend for 2021, but I suppose that's sensible. Hopefully growing dividends in the future.

[montyhedge] 11/5/2021 14:43

Was it Hardman? reckons 40p dividend on its way.

[speedsgh] 10/5/2021 20:35

Don't think a link has been posted previously to this video presentation by the CLIG management team. 20min presentation followed by 20min Q&A...

Hardman Talks: City of London Investment Group webinar (18/2/21) -

On 18 February, we were delighted to host the City of London Investment Group on Hardman Talks for a live presentation and Q&A session.

The asset manager delivered a well-rounded business overview. Management spoke on their dividend policy, and discussed the Karpus merger and integration as well as the diversifying investment strategies.

We were pleased to be met with an interactive audience, fielding questions about the company’s growth rate, capacity constraints with rising FuM, and growing cash balances.

[montyhedge] 27/4/2021 08:15

Way this is going soon be getting 40p dividend.

[skinny] 26/4/2021 09:15

Thanks Masurenguy.

[masurenguy] 26/4/2021 09:14

Another Quarter of Steady Progress
26 April 2021

A quarter of steady progress. Markets were supportive, albeit to a lesser degree than in the previous couple of quarters, with the MSCI EM Net TR Index increasing 2.3% and the MSCI ACWI ex US up 3.5%. Performance was strong across all product areas, driven by good NAV performance, partially offset by net outflows in each area. FUM increased in all strategies other than Opportunistic Value. Total FUM ticked up from $10.98bn to $11.06bn. City of London retains an active pipeline across all areas.

Operations: Revenue rates and expenses remain in line with the previous figures, giving a monthly run-rate for operating profit, pre profit share, of £3.3m. Progress has also been made in harmonising the financial and IT infrastructure in CLIM and KIM.

Estimates: With financial progress largely in line with expectations, we have only made small changes to our earnings estimates. Net outflows and exchange rate movements have led to small downgrades, with our 2021E EPS reduced by 0.6%, our 2022E EPS by 1.6% and 2023E EPS decreased by 1.5%.

Valuation: Despite the recent good performance, the 2022E P/E of 13.1x remains at a discount to the peer group. The 2022E yield of 6.7% is attractive, in our view, and should, at the very least, provide support for the shares in the current markets.

Risks: Although City of London has reduced its relative emerging markets exposure, it is still 47% of assets. It has proved to be more robust than some other fund managers, aided by its good performance and strong client servicing. Market volatility remains a risk, although increasing diversification is also mitigating this.

Investment summary: Having shown robust performance in challenging market conditions, City of London is now reaping the benefits in a more supportive environment. The valuation remains reasonable. After a special dividend in FY’19, a dividend increase in FY’20, and with the EPS boost from Karpus in 2021, the prospects for future dividend increases look very good.

[eggbaconandbubble] 21/4/2021 15:54

Am I missing the point. We are informed that mR Oliff wants to sell a large number of shares and at the same time it appears that the 'Company's Employee Benefit Trust' are buying! Can't they do a deal?????????/

[masurenguy] 20/4/2021 07:44

Key points.
1. At 31 March 21, FuM were US$11.1bn (£8.0bn) compared with US$11.0bn (£8.0bn) at 31 Dec 20.
2. Strong investment performance across investment strategies largely due to good NAV performance.
3. The Board will announce the final dividend on Tuesday 13 July 2021 in its pre-close trading update.

[montyhedge] 22/3/2021 22:41

Interactive Investor, CLIG dividend in account same day, although it will say pending you can invest it.

[james188] 20/3/2021 12:36

HL are always last of the brokers that I use to credit dividends to my account, but they usually arrive late on the same day. By way of contrast, CLIG dividends in my Charles Stanley Direct and Interactive Investor accounts arrived first thing yesterday. It is one reason why I use HL less these days.

[jomac2412] 20/3/2021 11:09

Thanks Mas

[masurenguy] 20/3/2021 10:46

I didn't receive my dividends from my broker yesterday either. However, that's not unusual since it often takes them a couple of days to process them before they hit my account.

[jomac2412] 20/3/2021 10:31

Never received Dividends as expected yesterday from HL , anyone else have this problem ?

[melton john] 10/3/2021 16:33

Good to know JJ. Every day's a school day.

[ukneonboy] 10/3/2021 16:16

Might be "regular" saver, share purchases, the £25 per month job, that some Brokers offer their customers ??

[jayjmckenna] 10/3/2021 16:06

Since I was head of Shareholder relations prior to retiring from CLIG / CLIM, and worked closely with the Market Make, when he was at Cannacord and now Zeus, I can assure you most of the little trades are rebalancing and done automatically

[stun12] 10/3/2021 15:26

Thanks guys. As good a pair of theories as I was able to come up with.