City Of London Investment Share Discussion Threads

[masurenguy] 05/2/2021 11:28

Straining to reach 500p - close now and should get there quite soon !

[montyhedge] 04/2/2021 11:56

Yes 550p should be the next trading level, with these growing dividends.

[skinny] 02/2/2021 11:09

A new high @492 and above Barry Olliff's 475p.

[montyhedge] 24/1/2021 14:01

I see 550p this year, if the dividends keep increasing. Holy grail of investing.Growing shareprice, growing dividends.

[mach100] 24/1/2021 13:22

Thanks Pob! As Mae West said a hard man is good to find.

[topvest] 22/1/2021 20:26

I might be wrong but I think the merger has caused a few of the Karpus withdrawals. Think there was something in the offer document.

[montyhedge] 22/1/2021 12:05

I can see this putting on 100p a share has the dividends grow.

[montyhedge] 21/1/2021 10:57

They will be.

[2wild] 20/1/2021 20:55

No reason why this should be trading on a yield above 6%. Assuming they pay 22p final dividend, a share price of 550p equates to a generous 6% yield.

[montyhedge] 20/1/2021 18:27

Found the holy grail of investing with this stock, growth plus rising dividends.

[frazboy] 20/1/2021 18:19

Anyone else slightly disappointed by the Karpus withdrawals? Had it been 2 or 3% of FUM I would have been happy but 5% seems a little high - perhaps understandable given pricey - particularly US - valuations.

[luderitz] 20/1/2021 17:20

Finished up 3 1/2% so no "sell on the news" with this one today.

[otemple3] 20/1/2021 17:19

He is not able to sell at the minute as in a close period until 15th Feb. I think this will be above £5 before he has the chance to hit the sell button as the market slowly wakes up to the value on offer here

[stun12] 20/1/2021 16:03

Looks like the first of Bazza's sell orders must be close, 250k at 475p. Good for him; he deserves it. History would suggest that the price will hang around here for a bit, the order gets filled, then we drop back 20p or so - not that it's easy to tell with the lack of liquidity still.

It's been a delight to be back in form the £4 mark or so...wish I could have bought more at the time, as always.

[montyhedge] 20/1/2021 13:24

This just keeps getting better and better this company.

[davebowler] 20/1/2021 09:45

Zeus;
FuM doubles to US$ 11 billion
What’s new: Ahead of the publication of the Group’s interims results for the six months to 31 December 2020, CLIG has released a detailed trading update which reveals:

§ Group consolidated FuM of US$11.0 billion (£8.0 billion), which is twice the FuM of US$5.5 billion (£4.4 billion) at the Group’s year end on 30 June 2020;

§ The merger with Karpus Management Inc ("KMI") added c US$3.6 billion from 1 October 2020;

§ Investment performance across CLIG’s investment strategies was “strong”, following “significant discount narrowing” and “good NAV performance”;

§ Rebalancing of client portfolios resulted in US$ 290 million of net outflows.

Interims results on 15 February will show:

§ 84% rise in adj PBT to £11.6m (2019: £6.3m) before £1.7m of exceptional costs relating to KMI merger;

§ 20% rise in net cash to £17.5m (30 June 2020: £14.6m);

§ 10% increase in interim DPS to 11p (1H20: 10p); ex date: 5 March 2021.

Guidance: The statement revealed post-merger run-rate for operating profit, before profit-share, is approx £3.4m per month based upon current FuM and 1.367 US$/£ exchange rate.

Zeus view: With higher FuM and a £3.4m monthly run-rate for operating profit, we increase our 2021 adj PAT by 8% to £21m (previously: £19.4m) and 2022 adj PAT 4% to £24m (previously: £23.1m), as well as our forecasts for operating profit, PBT and revenue. We will publish further details of these increases in due course.

We raise our 2021 adj EPS by 8% to 48.7p (previously: 45.1p) and our 2022 adj EPS by 4% to 49p (previously: 47.1p).

We increase our full year DPS for 2021 by 10% to 33p (previously 30p) and 2022 DPS by 3% to 33p (previously 32p), reflecting not only the higher interim DPS but also our higher earnings forecasts.

Valuation: At 454p CLIG shares are trading on 9.3x PER and 7.3% dividend yield, with 2.4% yield on the interim dividend alone.

[2wild] 20/1/2021 08:34

Expected these would open higher. 28 mins in and unchanged at 441-457.

[robsy2] 20/1/2021 07:18

Thanks DS2, nice work.Not had a really close look but the results look fine to me. The 10% increase in the divi shows the progress being made. Price wise,the next stop would appear to be 500p. Once Barry Olliff has cleared his positions we can move towards 550p and beyond.

[skinny] 20/1/2021 07:01

.






Strong investment performance across CLIG's investment strategies resulted from significant discount narrowing and to a lesser extent good NAV performance.

During the period under review, CLIG flows were negative as clients rebalanced following significant equity market gains, with net outflows of circa US$290 million across the Group's strategies.

With regard to business development, the Group continues to maintain an active pipeline across all of its major CEF offerings with an increased interest in the diversification CEF strategies.

Operations

Following the completion of the merger with KMI on 1 October 2020, the Group's income currently accrues at a weighted average rate of approximately 73 basis points of CLIM's FuM and at approximately 77 basis points of KMI's FuM, net of third party commissions. "Fixed" costs are c.GBP1.5 million per month, and accordingly the post-merger run-rate for operating profit, before profit-share is approximately GBP3.4 million per month based upon current FuM and a US$/GBP exchange rate of US$1.367 to GBP1 as at 31 December 2020.

The Group estimates the unaudited profit before amortisation, exceptional items of c. GBP1.7 million in relation to the KMI merger and taxation for the six months ended 31 December 2020 to be approximately GBP11.6 million (2019: GBP6.3 million) and the unaudited profit before amortisation and taxation for the six months ended 31 December 2020 to be approximately GBP9.9 million (2019: GBP6.3 million).

Inclusive of our regulatory and statutory capital requirements, cash in the bank has risen from GBP14.6 million at 30 June 2020 to GBP17.5 million at the end of the calendar year, in addition to the seed investment of GBP4.1 million in the two REIT funds. Our cash reserves will allow us to continue managing the business conservatively through volatile markets while following our dividend policy for our shareholders.

The Company is currently in a close period which will end with the publication of results for the six months ended 31 December 2020 on 15 February 2021.

Dividend

In recognition of the improved results and having regard to the current dividend cover policy the Board has decided to increase the interim dividend by 1p to 11p per share, which will be paid on 19 March 2021 to shareholders registered at the close of business on 5 March 2021. (2019: 10 pence)

Dividend cover template

Please see dividend cover template attached here.

The dividend cover template shows the quarterly estimated cost of dividend against actual post-tax profits for last year, the current year and the assumed post-tax profit for next financial year based upon specified assumptions.

Barry Olliff's share sales

The Company wishes to inform that, subject to being in an open period, Barry Olliff, Founder and Director, wishes to refresh his selling intentions to sell 250,000 shares at each of 475p, 500p and 525p. In addition, the Company will no longer provide trading intentions for Mr. Olliff post 30 June 2021, which is the Company's year-end.

[masurenguy] 19/1/2021 09:25

Many thanks for your very insightful and interesting analysis DS2. I think that the water has been muddied a bit by the Karpus merger which has changed the previous investment profile a bit here. However, now that this has had 6 months to bed down I would hope that the upcoming broker forecasts would be more realistically attuned to forward prospects and consequent metrics.

[dangersimpson2] 19/1/2021 08:59

That's a c.15% rise since Oct 1st. Other asset managers such as Polar Capital are up 40% since 1st Oct on the same 15% rise in AUM.

Which makes sense since asset managers, including CLIG, are geared to their AUM on a largely fixed cost base. As another example of this, Impax has gone up 68% on a 25% rise in AUM since 1st Oct.

But CLIG are up just 8% since 1st Oct. And with a further c.6% rise in the MSCI EM since Jan 1st then AUM could be up around 20% since 1st Oct, depending on the performance of the KMI part.



And it is not like CLIG are on a higher rating than others in the sector. POLR are on a fwd P/E of 12 and IPX 42 vs 10 for CLIG. And the forecasts for POLR & IPX are updated to reflect their latest AUM.

In contrast, the last notes on CLIG were the Zeus note 8th October:


And Hardman from 13th Oct:


Which means the brokers forecasts have not been updated for the recent rise in AUM. Hardman had forecast an AUM rise but even they are behind the curve based on current figures from the company.

I reckon EPS to June 21 will be at least 15% higher than consensus and c.30% higher than consensus to June 22 if AUM remain at similar levels to today. [minor edit for wrong y/e date]

So that forward P/E of 10 is actually closer to 7 and the price would need to be around £7.50/share simply to trade in line with the minimum rating of other listed peers.

Hopefully tomorrow’s trading update will prompt brokers to update their numbers to match current trading which should focus investors’ minds on what appears to be a great opportunity to buy into a high performing sector at a significant discount to not just peers but the general market too.

[cockerhoop] 05/1/2021 16:17

FUM up to $10.98bn at the end of December behind the MSCI index but the index should now be less correlated due to the more conservative Karpus AUM.

[cockerhoop] 05/1/2021 16:14

Less good for earnings conversion to sterling!