China Nonferrous Gold Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 12/7/2019 18:00

Should turnover at very least $40m this year
Mines under construction value is $400m
JORC Compliant Resources of 4.7moz

They have completed Phase I devt. of the mine and achieved production rate of 2,000t/day, leaving 18 year mine life
Phase II (to double production to 4,000t/day) was budgeted at $46.5m & expected to complete 3 years after completion of Phase I.

Original mine plan had POG at $1,400 for Year 2, $1,300 for Year 3 & then $1,250 from Year 4 thru 19.

Market cap is currently just $25m ie. less than 1 x Revs and just 6.25% of the mine construction value.

Appreciate the ongoing issues re. the debt but, it's a large enough figure that all parties will not be minded to simply write it off and walk away & an equity raise looks unlikely given current valuation and interest from the market.

Get the market cap to $300-$400m and then an equity raise for 25-30% of the debt might be achievable, assuming they can simultaneously show realistic future growth at the other Pakrut satellite projects.

Will be interesting to see if they maintain the plan to reach Phase II production of 4,000t/day as soon as possible ie. keep spending (which seems to be inferred by management) or, they pause just now to strengthen the cash position, refinance the debt and then push onwards.

In either case, I believe it is too cheap just now and there are sufficient +ve reasons for the mkt cap to keep rising .. particularly so if pog continues to trend above $1,400.

Added another 90k today during the flurry of liquidity … I am not the only one fishing for stock here … price was competitively Bid all day.

[eke] 12/7/2019 17:12

The uptrend continues even after a large sell-off.

[mattjos] 12/7/2019 08:48

Pog seems to want to stay over 1400 ... doing wonders for cash flow here

[eke] 05/7/2019 02:46

MattMy big worry is another devastating Avalanche .I would like to know what steps have been put in place to negate the impact another would have on the mine.It would be unacceptable for a company with such a large Investment not to have make some provision.If the mine is well protected, and with the current POG ,I see no reason why CNG can't clear all their depts within the next 5 to 6 years.

[mattjos] 04/7/2019 10:54

Presence of China Nonferrous Metals Int'l Mining Co Ltd as the largest shareholder & their willingness to stand behind the company debt is obviously what enables the company to borrow at very competitive prices.

They have been incredibly supportive all the way through the construction process, the avalanche & the recovery from that event.

Pakrut mining licence is valid through to 2030 so, they have 11 years to recover the debts and show a return on the investment.

JORC of 4.8m oz. At $1,300/oz that is over $6Bn in-ground

Mkt Cap is currently $24m

Everything is set at Pakrut now. The share price has gone through the normal phases for a miner:
- Exciting rises off the back of the details about the resource and the opportunity
- Long fall back as the mine construction starts
- Rise as actual mining starts
- Fall as early mining highlights the plant needs optimising
(In this case accompanied by the avalanche)
- Plant optimisation achieved and mining / processing finally gets going to plan

This is where we are at now & we should now see the valuation start to appreciate as the cashflow & profits build from here.

Were it not for the presence of CNM, this would have suffered huge equity dilution as a consequence of the avalanche & there'd be billions of share in issue.
They have not diluted the equity and I therefore conclude they value it much higher that the market currently does

[ilostthelot] 04/7/2019 10:28

True.
As the debt is paid off the market cap will rise accordingly. Gold going up obviously helps.

[brasso3] 04/7/2019 09:21

The debt is significant but the banks keep lending to them so they must have confidence in the BoD and assets.

[ilostthelot] 04/7/2019 08:30

The debt is the issue. Enterprise value is higher than AAZ.

[mattjos] 03/7/2019 23:14

Only valued at appreciably less than 1 x FY Revs & fraction of EV ... as a consequence of being totally invisible to 99.9% of the market.Seems insanely cheap to me given recently released production metrics so, added more today.

[mattjos] 03/7/2019 08:52

NMS has increased from 75,000 to 100,000 today

[mattjos] 03/7/2019 02:52

Is there a productive, listed gold-miner with any more balance sheet leverage to pog than this one?

[mattjos] 02/7/2019 21:39

Agreed, they should be singing this a bit louder now.Gold price will be a big tail-wind for them this year & next.

[brasso3] 02/7/2019 17:14

Chart still looking good for a jump up in the near term.

Its a shame these guys are not more active on the communication front.

[brasso3] 02/7/2019 12:08

If the revenue was $18m in 2018 I would expect $50m - $80m is possible in 2019.

[ilostthelot] 02/7/2019 12:02

Pure luck!
Based on in the ground gold this looks interesting. I had Kyrso on my watch list for years and took my eye off it.

[eke] 01/7/2019 12:26

Ilostthelot, nearly spot-on with your "fag packet" maths.Would like to see 40m revenue production levels in place for 2020.A six year time scale fits nicely with my retirement plans.

[eke] 01/7/2019 11:40

Happy to see a revenue. share price will mirror the POG until we see a production increase RN.Patience and no more bad storms ...Thank you.

[mattjos] 01/7/2019 09:05

got the results out just in time!

$17.9m Revs during FY 2018
$12.5m Revs Jan - Apr 2019 … $37.5m annualised

[eke] 28/6/2019 17:24

The main reason why I invested here...
Lots of the yellow stuff around...

Precious metals output is growing rapidly in Tajikistan
18:30, June 25 Posted by Payrav Chorshanbiev, Asia-Plus
Под;роk3;не 77;: hxxps://asiaplustj.info/ru/news/tajikistan/economic/20190625/v-tadzhikistane-visokimi-tempami-rastet-vipusk-dragotsennih-metallov



The rate of production of precious metals in the republic this year has increased significantly. The volume of production of metal No. 1 (gold) for five months of this year increased by 60.8% compared to the same period last year, and metal No. 2 (silver) - by 37.6%, according to the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the Republic
The official structures of the country refrain from publicizing the volume of produced precious metals, explaining that this information is of a secret nature.
In 2018, a record volume of gold was produced in the republic - about 6.4 tons. Gold output last year compared to 2017 increased by almost 17%.
Под;роk3;не 77;: hxxps://asiaplustj.info/ru/news/tajikistan/economic/20190625/v-tadzhikistane-visokimi-tempami-rastet-vipusk-dragotsennih-metallov
How much gold is in Tajikistan?


The Ministry of Industry notes that there are favorable investment conditions in the republic to increase gold production through the implementation of large projects for the Taror, Chore, Pakrut and others.
The ministry stressed that in the depths of the republic are large reserves of gold. Tajikistan’s gold assets contain 137 deposits with estimated reserves of industrial gold and 127 deposits of non-industrial gold.
The main gold deposits with balance reserves are located in the central part of the republic.
The main gold producer in Tajikistan is the Tajik-Chinese joint venture Zarafshon, which accounts for about 70 percent of the total metal produced.
In general, dozens of companies are engaged in gold mining in the country, of which the largest along with Zarafshon JV are Aprelevka JV, Tilloi Tochik State Enterprise, Odina Artel, Pakrut Company.
Под;роk3;не 77;: hxxps://asiaplustj.info/ru/news/tajikistan/economic/20190625/v-tadzhikistane-visokimi-tempami-rastet-vipusk-dragotsennih-metallov

[ilostthelot] 27/6/2019 11:19

So debt of $250 M, is alot! How long will that take to pay off?

Fag packet calcs here, and a fair bit of optimistic speculation, all corrections welcomed!


If they can improve grades to 3g/t.

2000 tons mined per day that is 211 oz per day. If we allow for 15 days shut down that is approx 74,000 ozs per year.

Assuming they can get Aisc of around $850.
Average gold price $1375

74,000 per year gives revenue of $39 M



If they can ramp up production to 3000 tons per day at 3g/t= 111,000oz per year
Assuming AISc of around $850.
Average gold price $1375.
Revenue of $58M



Using top figure they could potentially pay around $25M per year to debt!?
Meaning approx 10 Years to pay of the large debt.


Bottom figure potentially $40M towards debt payment per year.
Approximately 6years pay back.

I am not accountant just my untrained calculations.

They could of cource be lucky and get higher grades of 6g/t. 🤔.

Equally 3g/t may be to optimistic.

[steve c1] 25/6/2019 13:52

Not any more! Knees can't hack it

[eke] 25/6/2019 12:49

We almost have enough now for a 5 a side football team.Do you play in goal?

[steve c1] 25/6/2019 12:08

Just taken my first tranch of these at 5.1.risk reward seems reasonable, especially considering the gold price. Don't know if i will add until we get a bit more news.

[eke] 25/6/2019 07:42

Just watched the Space X rocket launch...guess what came to mind?