China Nonferrous Gold Share Discussion Threads

[novicetrade68] 29/1/2019 12:42

Rereading the RNS it is actually another partner of CNG who is providing a letter of credit for this a bridging facility whilst the extension is being formalised.

[roguetreader] 29/1/2019 11:50

Current USD Libor rate looks to be around 2.5%, so 1.2% on top makes a payable rate of 3.7%. Looks like a very good rate to borrow at IMO.

[novicetrade68] 29/1/2019 09:58

£19m MCAP at the moment, can't see too much downside from here assuming the below all materialises in which case respect to CNMIM for their continious support to CNG. Might still see some temporary weakness here, but don't think it will be for too long. NAI

''the Company is in the final stages of agreeing a formal extension of its existing debt facilities from CNMC International Capitals Company Limited. These debt facilities, once finalised, will support the operational performance of CNG, which continues to be in line with management expectations. The finalisation and further details of the debt facilities, including terms, are expected to be announced in the near future. ''

[mattjos] 29/1/2019 09:50

This remains priced as if bust yet, is clearly not the case

[novicetrade68] 29/1/2019 09:47

Absolutely, fantastic news.

[mark of the rushes] 23/1/2019 21:01

The failed HK listing was explained at the time by the lack of 3 years of revenue or some such.

[yasx] 23/1/2019 01:25

All,

I took a brief look at this following a nod from Mattjos.

As it happens, I am familiar with Kryso from many years ago, but have not looked at this since. A brief overview suggests the risks are remarkably high - there is the issue of a failed HK listing (quite why I am not sure but nebulous spin was alluded to at the time which cannot be taken seriously), and the Co. has a consistent track record of failing to deliver on any of its objectives. Then there is the issue of a series of related party transactions and everything seems to be encapuslated in a complex labyrinthe of related party loans and financing arrangments.

More recent concerns are as follows:

* total liabilities as of June 18 stood at over $450 million of which more than half were due last year and are therefore immediately repayable. There was set to be an update regarding financing but nothing seems to have been provided. That is not helpful or inspiring. They last reported that discussions were taking place and that an update would be provided, but, maintaining the track record of non-delivery on objectives, nothing seems to have emerged.

*Around a year ago the Co. agreed a loan from CNMC (which is essentially in effect the same entity as the largest shareholder CNMIM which has over 38% of the shares. Unless I am mistaken I seem to have read somewhere earlier while looking at the results that this is secured against the asset base.

* A recent positive several months ago is that they have now recommenced production which would prove useful when negotiating terms for any financing arrangements going forward.

In short, my brief look into this suggests a very chequered past, some green shoots of significant (perhaps even substantial potential), but, there is nil transparency, a controlling majority chinese holder, a dubious failed HK listing in the past with no idea as to what they propose or intend to do in terms of that in the future if anything, a failure to provide a timely and crucial update regarding an essential refinancing or some such and complete disregard for UK minority shareholders.

Needless to say, not for widows and orphans. I earlier this week took a tiny holding (just a few thousand pounds) to stir an interest to look into it without even glancing at it, but, given the substantial risks I doubt I am likely to take a meaningful position without further clarity. With no meaningful position, I am unlikely to find the energy to look into it in detail and peel, layer by layer, beneath the surface, but, if anyone has already done so I welcome any useful bullish or bearish contribution. That my save me a bit of time and induce me into looking into it further.

Regards

[waterloo01] 22/1/2019 22:02

Hate to say it but it's rather resembling a number of Chinese companies on aim

[mattjos] 22/1/2019 20:39

Only small position for all these reasons + the company does not return calls or emails from shareholders.Next stop will be Investec to try and shake things up there

[novicetrade68] 22/1/2019 20:28

I think CNMIM is already past 30%...they updated their shareholder list a few weeks back and I think there are some new names, or at least I had not heard of BOCOM International Holdings before. And then there is a Huang Lihou, who I believe was not on the register previously. Zhao Bin perhaps even increased but would have to check his older disclosures.

[hounddog10] 21/1/2019 20:55

I too hope it is not bad news. It is getting rather ridiculous - an RNS should have been issued by end December to explain the position - even if the position was still unclear. My great fear is they may do a debt for equity swap which would be incredibly dilutive. As this is a BVI company and the Code does not apply I think they can sail past 30% with impunity.

[novicetrade68] 21/1/2019 20:13

I hope the crash today was due to the sell that went through at 3.75p earlier and not a case of bad news coming. Yes, we are due an update now, let's hope it is all positive.

[waterloo01] 21/1/2019 08:53

Sold the few I held last week at decent profit. What I don't get is where the year end update is re paying off the debts. Silence.

[eke] 05/12/2018 04:04

I think the MM's don't know how to value this Company,hence the big spread and the "walk up " in the share price Happy to see this continue as the Gold price marches North.
May see 10p plus by Friday.

[novicetrade68] 04/12/2018 23:46

It's incredible how the share has almost 'casually' three bagged so far, this share always moves so fast when it wants to move.

[eke] 04/12/2018 11:43

I hope some of you patient followers took some of the cheap shares available after their last production update,it was a clear signal the City MM's were slow to respond too hence todays share action.I switched a large holding in CEY over and I'm glad I did.Im backing the Chinese on this one and praying for a mild winter with no avalanche's.Holding now for a pound (NOT a ramp).

[c9ajl] 04/12/2018 09:05

Nice to see some more activity / volume in the share.

[novicetrade68] 17/11/2018 12:37

What will be very interesting to see is that the forecasted production of next year, ie 40k oz is based on quite a low cut-off grade, only 0.5g/t, whilst their drilling results throughout the years have shown much higher grades per tonne. May be their production number is going to be a lot higher, but of course only time will tell.

I agree the next key news has to be the refinancing, and a positive update would propel this even higher I would imagine. I think at higher levels of these Chinese state companies there might be an awareness that trying to initiate an insolvency procedure in a North Korea-style country could actually risk the Tajik government simply taking back the mine by whichever means. CNMIM has been extremely supportive here and has poured money into Pakrut with no expense spared it seems throughout the years.

In any case, I do think there is going to be some excitement back in this share for the coming months with ups and downs and it is of course still a risky play, but the future could also be very bright too and bag many times from these levels.

[mattjos] 16/11/2018 23:06

the main shareholder has been remarkably patient and has bent over backwards with regards its financial support of the company since the avalanche.

Clearly there is still the matter of the $460m debt to be repaid.

I do not see them doing a smash & grab to take the company over as that would not go down well with the Tajikistan government

they have supported the company this far & we are now back at full planned 2,000t / day rate of production with previously stockpiled ore still available.
Cash will shortly be regularly flowing into the company bank account.
The original mine plan assumed $1,250 / oz for gold & $576 costs / oz..
Latest contractual updates from the company have shown labour costs have actually decreased locally so, the sales - cost differential likely pretty much as originally envisaged at the feasibility stage.

Finance update is due by end of the year.

At long last we have a cash-flow & the means to start repaying the debt.

Well done to everyone involved on site over the last 15 months

[mattjos] 16/11/2018 12:05

yes, that was the sort of resource figure being bandied around & Kryso went on a huge run as a consequence back then.
We may now finally get to see

[c9ajl] 16/11/2018 11:57

This always moves fast in both directions once the Buys/Sells start

[charles clore] 16/11/2018 11:54

It was said in the Kryso days there could be up to 10m oz at Eastern Pakrut previously found by the Russians. Worth a punt imho.

[mattjos] 16/11/2018 11:41

yes.
I remember back a few years ago when Anthony Schindler was IR for (as it was then) Kryso and there was a lot of excitement in the city about the resources they had.

no stock at all now online ... Market best is currently 6p

[waterloo01] 16/11/2018 11:39

I took the 45k & 35k so guess your's was the 17.5 or the 148k?

I really must do some research though. Any broker notes around?