Ft Cesg Discussion Threads

[glasshalfull] 23/6/2008 09:15

Thanks for your response longsight.

Hopefully the forthcoming results will provide better guidance as at the moment we are all working from historical data, namely the interims which were published in Nov '07, and 2 brokers notes that seem to suggest that the company exhibits strong cash generative qualities, although I fully take on board your comments regarding all businesses with Chinese connections having experienced it 1st hand with the likes of CHNS.

Regards,
GHF

[longsight] 23/6/2008 07:49

Glasshalfull - sorry to have posted & not responded to your comment.

I take your point. However, my concern related to the newly acquired businesses eg the Education business. They appeared to have worse cash flow than the petrochem bus - which itself was not great. My concern was that CESB's undoubted expertise was at large projects where payment wd always be slow. I cd not see some alleviating bus activity eg sale of software licences with payment up front.

I wd emphasise that CESB undoubtedly are v high quality. A great business & the cash flow problem after all affects all bus in China.

[0rb1t] 21/6/2008 08:23

"Fuel move boosts Chinese shares"



Shoud be positive for CESG as the oil refiners are one of CESG's main customers.

[glasshalfull] 20/6/2008 16:04

Hi longsight,

We must be looking at different companies.
It is the STRONG CASHFLOW that attracts me.

Per Evolution note (link in header)

"Strong Financial Position. Its FY07 year end net cash balance was £3.75m and, with low capex requirement, the company is generating £1.5m-2.5m cash a year.
This puts it in a strong position to grow by acquisition."

Net cash was lower at the interim period at £3.4m but the note above and that of Seymour Pierce a few days ago are both forecasting positive cashflow for the year.

Perhaps you could expand on your post as there is always a chance I've missread something.

Kind regards,
GHF

[longsight] 20/6/2008 15:45

The potential achilles heel of CESB is cash flow. I looked into Co before the relisting on AIM & cash flow put me off buying.

[capt bligh] 20/6/2008 09:35

Try spreadex for tiddlers they will do pretty much anything over a 7-10 mill market cap require 20%

[buffin] 20/6/2008 07:31

Thanks, GI :)

[greek islander] 20/6/2008 00:02

Buffin

Yes. IGIndex (Barclays wouldn't take a bet) - 3 separate SBs totalling £100 averaging 26.6p March 09 end - usually they require a deposit (about £2,000 I would imagine) you are right but I have been on a strong run lately and am effectively heavily in credit with them, so am currently playing with gains from closed and still active SBs.
At the moment - with the exception of losses with GNG - I am on a pretty good run! Running my good fortune, I hope.

Hope I am not boring too much those who are not interested in SBs.

Making money on straight stock purchases is very difficult at the moment and as I am long with most of my portfolio I have found SBs an excellent (though undoubtedly risky) way of playing the market. Betting on somewhat volatile companies like BG., AMEC, Emerald Energy and Cambrian Mining with longer term SBs on RCG,CHNS, TAIH, RCG and of course GNG - these latter ones I intend to hold until they hit my target price and I am generally ignoring their ups and downs on the way (though with GNG I was caught out on stop loss losing three positions at somewhat great cost). China Eastsea is a calculated gamble on results.

[buffin] 19/6/2008 19:32

GI, may I ask where? IG quote a 75% deposit factor!

[greek islander] 19/6/2008 18:55

Not actually bought any stock but took £100 a point in total SBs at 26.6 so already showing a bit of profit. Think we shall see a steady rise to results (31-33p?)and then anything can happen!

[0rb1t] 19/6/2008 12:29

Hi Hectorp, this will probably be worth 60p based on historic earnings once they are announced in a couple of weeks!

[arthurly] 19/6/2008 10:02

No sign of it yet though - World Bank raising 2008 forecast to 9.8% on the back of strong service sector growth. I reckon that year to 28/2/09 very likely to be untouched by slower growth. If it happens at all it will be in the following year imho.

[hectorp] 19/6/2008 08:57

Yes its been tarred with the China word of recent months China and AIM are a combination to avoid....
- in general... but not here.
But will China's IT market still grow at 40% in 2009 if the country witnesses a slump in growth caused by inflationary pressures and the downturn in the west?
IF not, this IS heading to 60p in time.. but it is a small gamble.
H.

[0rb1t] 18/6/2008 22:30

I see Evolution Securities estimate from March has now been annotated with an A code meaning "[A] - Age - the forecast is old and is overtaken by events, for example it is out of line with a subsequent interim announcement.".

Bascially confirming it was too low. I wonder what prompted them to do that.

[rivaldo] 18/6/2008 22:22

GHF, thx from me too for the note.

Hope67, it's not ISAble (unless Orb1t's Frankfurt Bourse listing counts as a dual listing? I can't believe it does.)

[david77] 18/6/2008 19:55

Thanks for analysts note Glasshalfull

[arthurly] 18/6/2008 16:49

I'm sure London Asia will be cleared out when results are out (if they are as expected). Combination of bear market and inst seller has led to this being extremely undervalued. I followed this when on Plus but never expected to be able to buy on AIM at less than the quoted price then.

[hope67] 18/6/2008 16:48

Just wandered as this is a chinese AIM stock can you put it into an ISA
TIA
Hope

[glasshalfull] 18/6/2008 16:47

Already corrected myself ferdy1 /Buffin
Nice vote of confidence by yourself ferdy1.

Regards,
GHF

[buffin] 18/6/2008 16:38

Thanks for the note :)

[ferdy1] 18/6/2008 16:37

That 92592 was my BUY @ 27

[glasshalfull] 18/6/2008 16:31

Last word by me today.

I have made tentative enquires re. the 50k sells that have been occurring for a while now and that a few believe to be London Asia selling out.
I will update the board with any info I receive but noticed a strange sell a few minutes ago for 92,592 which is the first large sale that I have observed for a while that hasn't been for a round amount like the normal 25k or 50k's.
Begs the question....has the seller now been cleared out?
Perhaps 300k sold into strength today.

Regards,
GHF

EDIT - SEE IT TIMED AT 9.41....possibly accounts for the mark up. Reckon I was barking up the wrong tree :-)

[0rb1t] 18/6/2008 16:11

Seymour Pierce Research note now in the header.

[affc21] 18/6/2008 16:00

GHF

Thank-You

affc21

[glasshalfull] 18/6/2008 15:52

Notes sent.....quite a bit of interest.

Nice to see the market waking up to these...perhaps they failed to realise the significant upgrade in forecasts over the next few years???

David Tsui, CFO, intimated in a recent email that results are on track to be released towards the end of June ie. next week, as per the trading update last month.
He also wrote;

"We will initiate various action plans to improve the undervalued stock situation, on our next visit to London".


Kind regards,
GHF