Ft Cesg Discussion Threads

[glasshalfull] 18/6/2008 15:38

Sorry folks....busy last night & away from PC this morning.
Sending out all the notes.......


Regards,
GHF

[0rb1t] 18/6/2008 11:26

3.5m shares have been traded since London Asia notified that they have less than 3% (ie equivalent to 2m shares). Assuming about half the trades are LDC sales then this means that they will have very few left (could be ~250K). These should continue to go up once the results are announced.

[james 2] 18/6/2008 10:53

Client list is more China based but includes the likes of ;

Sinopec, CNOOC and BP from petrochemical sector
PCCW, China Unicom & China telecom from telecom sector
North China grid co, Central china Co & Beijing Electric from power sector.

50% of their clients are from petrochemicals but as GHF highlighted yesterday they are growing fast in other sectors, in particular telecoms & power. The latter they are already seeing large contract wins since the acq earlier this month.

[rivaldo] 18/6/2008 10:40

:o)) Let's hope so....the only differences are that I haven't met CESG's management, so don't know if they're as Western-orientated as GNG's, and also CESG's client list is I think rather more China-based and concentrated than GNG's. But the rating certainly makes up for that!

[explorer88] 18/6/2008 10:32

riv - does this remind you of your early days with GNG ? :-)

[rivaldo] 18/6/2008 10:31

Certainly looks like the LDC overhang has gone or at least that they've stopped feeding the market for the time being. Excellent stuff.

GHF, you have my e-mail - a copy of the new note would be much appreciated.

[explorer88] 18/6/2008 10:23

pec - they say towards end of June, but also that they will announce in advance the date.

[pec2004] 18/6/2008 10:21

Cant even get an online quote for 500 shares. Is there a firm date for results or is it just before the end of June.

[explorer88] 18/6/2008 10:04

morning Art - yes, i reckon the seller has finished and buyers coming in in anticipation of 4.5p eps for FY to end Feb. and 7.3p eps in current FY

a PEG of 0.25 (hardly demanding, even for an AIM listed China stock in the current climate) would give share price of 109.6p on current year's eps forecast from Seymour Pearce (7.3p)

(actually, i believe Seymour's eps forecast is a little light bearing in mind organic growth and acquisitions)

[arthurly] 18/6/2008 09:57

Has the seller finished I wonder ?

[tole] 18/6/2008 09:56

Spreadbettable over on IG though.

[pec2004] 18/6/2008 09:55

Is it now very difficult to get the shares. Cant get online prices with TDW.

[explorer88] 18/6/2008 09:45

fwiw, i believe Seymour's revenue figure for this year is conservative. Acquired businesses will provide most, if not all, of their forecast £5.8m revenue increase; leaving out potential significant organic growth, especially with ZRCC.

[james 2] 18/6/2008 09:32

GHF Did you get my mail last night - was from a yahoo address ?

Would appreciate a copy of the Seymour report when you get the time.

Thanks

[explorer88] 18/6/2008 08:15

a PEG of 0.25 (hardly demanding, even for an AIM listed China stock in the current climate) would give share price of 109.6p on current year's eps forecast.

[explorer88] 18/6/2008 08:15

Orb1t - yes, sounds cheap to me too on forecast 60% eps growth this year ... :-)

[0rb1t] 17/6/2008 18:09

Thanks GHF, 60p sounds cheap for forecasts of 7.3p for this year.

[james 2] 17/6/2008 17:42

Thanks for the updates GHF.

[explorer88] 17/6/2008 17:16

Thanks GHF

[glasshalfull] 17/6/2008 17:15

I'm more than happy to send on the note if you wish to leave your email addresses
or alternatively email me at:-

[e-mail]

Regards,
GHF

EDIT- I'll send in one go either late tonight or tomorrow at some point.

[glasshalfull] 17/6/2008 17:13

Some other snippets of note.

"A draft of this research has been shown to the company following which minor factual amendments have been made."

Which suggests to me that as the note was produced yesterday and refers to forecasts for the year ended of 4.5p that is 15% above the March forecast(Evolutions was for 3.9p EPS).
In other words, they must have been guided to produce upgraded figures of this magnitude.


On the IVA acquisition a fortnight ago:-

"The telecom and power sectors are early stage markets that China Eastsea
is trying to tap into. Built around the company's success in the petrochemical
sector, the company is keen to grow into similar industrial areas. The
knowledge and experience gained in the petrochemical sector can easily be
transferred. China Eastsea acquired Infa Group at the beginning of June
2008, a company that has a strong business focus on these two sectors.
With existing and new clients from acquisitions, China Eastsea is already
winning large contracts with power companies and has developed systems
integration techniques."

Augurs very well.


Regards,
GHF

[glasshalfull] 17/6/2008 16:59

Good to to see you explorer. I see you were referred to my previous post; plenty net cash and excellent cash generation despite the significant growth.

I've obtained the Seymour Pierce note....very bullish and forecasting 4.5p EPS for the year ended (28/2/08) and this rises to 7.3p for the current year (28/2/09) SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER than the previous Evolution forecasts.

So the company will be on a PER of 5.4 if results come in as forecast in the next week or so and that will fall to 3.3 in the current year.
Starting to exhibit the same excellent value that is apparent in other cash rich companies like RCG


2007A Revenue £8.8m
EBIT £2.2m
PTP £2.2m
Net Profit £2.1m
EPS 3.1p
PER 7.8 (at 24.25p)

2008E Revenue £10.6m
EBIT £3.1m
PTP £3.1m
Net Profit £3.0m
EPS 4.5p
PER 5.4

2009E Revenue £16.4m
EBIT £5.1m
PTP £5.2m
Net Profit £4.9m
EPS 7.3p
PER 3.3

2009E Revenue £25.5m
EBIT £8.1m
PTP £8.2m
Net Profit £7.2m
EPS 10.5p
PER 2.3


Regards,
GHF

[explorer88] 17/6/2008 15:23

whilst we wait for CESG's results, you may care to check out another small software company : ATL

[horneblower] 17/6/2008 10:49

Such power, Seymour Pierce wields, that the price has raced away!

[explorer88] 17/6/2008 10:10

thanks james